2020-05-21

Sourcehttps://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/05/21/latest-news-37/
Published2020-05-21T16:18:55
Last updated2020-05-21T17:41:13
Scraped2020-12-20T20:18:03
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11616 Schrodinger, replying to Schrodinger, 4, #1 of 623 🔗

That graph “Fewer People have Died in 2019-20 than in 2017-18” now seems to have been updated on the host site and the headline would not now appear to be true? Or am I reading things wrong?

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/

Otherwise thanks for keeping us updated.

11636 ▶▶ Bob, replying to Schrodinger, 1, #2 of 623 🔗

It has been updated, the author of InProportion posted on Twitter to confirm this.

11914 ▶▶▶ Amtrup, replying to Bob, 4, #3 of 623 🔗

I crunched the numbers for the same period in 2014 – 2015, ( week ending 29 November 2014 to week 21 in 2015 from the ONS ), when there was alsp a bad flu season, and the total number of all cause deaths over that time period that year was 291,415, still around 21k less than this year, but then I remembered that an estimated 11k-15k of deaths this year have been caused by the panic and lockdown measures, eg people not calling for ambulances in time, not attending hospitals for illness etc, and that’s not counting the many deaths to come of undiagnosed and untreated cancer etc. Which means that even if the Co19 mortality figures were actually a reliable measure of Co19 lethality the virus would only have caused 6k more deaths than flu.

11617 Adele Bull, replying to Adele Bull, 26, #4 of 623 🔗

The trouble is he’s set himself a hurdle to cross before he gets anywhere! The track and trace milarky won’t be ready and we’ll all have to wait for it! Why can’t he just let us get on with it? Kids back in schools, everyone back to work, wear a mask if you want to, sensible 1 metre distancing where possible, crack on!!

11618 ▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to Adele Bull, 36, #5 of 623 🔗

It’s evident Boris and his cabinet are deliberately trashing our country. I cannot believe what is happening!

11623 ▶▶▶ Fiat, replying to Bella Donna, 14, #6 of 623 🔗

I read somewhere that a letter to an MP is worth 1,000 votes; i.e. it carries a lot more weight when compared to opinion polls and petitions. I’ve now written to mine twice and will continue to do so in the hope that it represents a larger ground swelling of public opinion against lockdown. I encourage everyone to do likewise (as well as signing petitions etc.).

11629 ▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Fiat, 5, #7 of 623 🔗

I wrote to mine and got a fairly standard looking reply from a lackey saying basically “science!” and “we are lifting the lockdown”. But maybe sending the email helped a bit.

11656 ▶▶▶▶▶ RDawg, replying to guy153, 1, #8 of 623 🔗

Good work Guy,

I published a response on this site a couple of days ago to send as a retort to your MP, when they try and fob you off.

You can also read it here: https://twitter.com/WeWillBeFree82/status/1262776120426074112?s=20

11722 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to RDawg, 13, #9 of 623 🔗

I tried to just stick to historical facts that even an MP can understand– hardly anyone of working age is dead so what’s the fuss all about?

Here’s what I wrote (people are welcome to copy and paste if they want):

Can you please put as much pressure as possible on the government to end this extremely harmful “lockdown” as soon as possible, and return our country and NHS to normal, productive life.

While COVID-19 can be a nasty illness it is extremely rarely severe or fatal for anyone of working age or without pre-existing conditions. In the UK, where there have been at least several million infections, probably tens of millions, the total number of people under the age of 60 without pre-existing conditions who have died with Covid mentioned anywhere on the death certificate is fewer than 300. Even if we include pre-existing conditions, the number is around 2000.

These are official figures from the ONS and I would urge you to check them yourself. We don’t even need to argue about how few of those deaths might have actually been caused by COVID-19, or to discuss the finer points of IFR estimation from serology studies or the likely progression of the epidemic so far.

There is therefore absolutely no justification for keeping the general population away from their jobs, schools and lives with all the devastating consequences that that is already bringing. I am also extremely concerned at reports that the NHS is no longer providing essential services such as dentistry, cancer tests, operations, and treatments for other illnesses. Given the high prevalence of these other issues and the relatively low fatality of COVID-19 priorities appear to have been completely inverted.

Furthermore there is no evidence that “lockdowns” are significantly more effective than simple measures such as “self-isolating” when you are symptomatic, in particular at this stage in the epidemic, when there is likely to be at least partial population-level immunity. If the R number is reduced below 1 the effect is the same– the epidemic is stopped in its tracks. It appears that in the UK the peak of infections was before the “full lockdown” implying that the far less destructive and voluntary measures were sufficient even at that stage. They will be even more so now that there is at least some immunity in the population.

COVID-19 is a problem in hospitals and care-homes which the government needs to address urgently by tackling the actual problems in those environments, not by imposing extremely harmful restrictions on the population outside those environments.

12161 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Annabel Andrew, replying to guy153, 1, #10 of 623 🔗

Well written piece- informative, knowledgeable and full of facts!

11650 ▶▶▶▶ RDawg, replying to Fiat, 7, #11 of 623 🔗

Well done Jacob. You absolutely must do this. Also, I recommend you push for a telephone appointment. Do not take no for an answer. Mine is calling me tomorrow lunchtime.

11993 ▶▶▶▶▶ Sarigan, replying to RDawg, #12 of 623 🔗

Looking forward to the update RDawg.

11770 ▶▶▶▶ Stephen McMurray, replying to Fiat, #13 of 623 🔗

I wrote to a number of local MPS and got no response whatsoever.

12198 ▶▶▶▶▶ Lms23, replying to Stephen McMurray, #14 of 623 🔗

If they are not your MP, and you don’t include your full name and address, they won’t reply.

11625 ▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Bella Donna, 13, #15 of 623 🔗

It’s an amazing idea isn’t it? But I absolutely think it is true. Boris is actually trashing his own sister’s, and her kids’ future to save his own miserable reputation!

11631 ▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Barney McGrew, -3, #16 of 623 🔗

Those of us of a non no-deal Brexit persuasion are less surprised by this characteristic of Johnson.

11675 ▶▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to guy153, 22, #17 of 623 🔗

No, the two things don’t compare. Brexit was a genuine choice between two rational paths – that Britain had been dallying with for decades. There were advantages and disadvantages to either choice.

The Covid lockdown is a pure disaster without any redeeming features. Boris is cynically trashing the country to cover up the fact that he was given his actual, genuine Churchill moment and f****ed it up. He may not even be dragging it out because of what other people are going to think of him, but to save his own internal sanity because he knows what he has done and what he threw away.

If the claim is that this is no different from the Brexit referendum because the public supposedly support it in opinion polls, the difference is that both sides of the argument are not being aired. The public are only being fed one side of the argument.

11714 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Barney McGrew, #18 of 623 🔗

Yes but _Johnson_ never believed in Brexit. He didn’t care. He was just doing what it took to become PM.

11729 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to guy153, 8, #19 of 623 🔗

I’m kind of ambivalent about that. What he actually believes in is not fundamental to what is best for the country. He’s a politician. It could still be a perfectly principled position to push for whatever outcome would be best for the country overall, even if it wasn’t his personal preference.

The issue here is that I think he’s pushing for the worst outcome for the country for purely cynical, personal reasons. I’d like to think I was wrong, but the conclusion is becoming unavoidable.

11832 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ James H, replying to Barney McGrew, 5, #20 of 623 🔗

He did have his Churchillian moment. It was called Gallipoli.

11627 ▶▶ guy153, replying to Adele Bull, 7, #21 of 623 🔗

I thought they’d changed it anyway to just call some number if you think you might have Covid and/or feel like being tested, locked up and generally interfered with. That seemed like a more sustainable target.

£3.8m was already rather a lot for an app whose purpose is to display green traffic lights. But if we all have to wait for it the cost will run to billions. Maybe they just want to break Fergie’s record for the most expensively bad code ever written.

11633 ▶▶▶ Ewan Duffy, replying to guy153, 4, #22 of 623 🔗

I assume the number will be a premium rate number. Gotta make up for the revenue drop somehow!

11689 ▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Ewan Duffy, 2, #23 of 623 🔗

Yep, and wait until people realise that their medical details are flashing up on a screen in a callcentre in Bangalore.

11916 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Adele Bull, 3, #24 of 623 🔗

It is no use anyway as the virus has all but run its course and most people in any case would be symptomless, although if they keep adding new ones like anosmia as a sole reason to self isolate we will just be going round in circles for ever.
More money from the magic money tree going down the toilet.

11619 MiriamW-sometimes-AlanG, 42, #25 of 623 🔗

‘Getting this in – about people’s behaviour in a small High Peak town – quick even before I read what looks like another excellent post:

Today in Buxton: We get there by ‘bread-van’ i.e. small buses operated by High Peak. The 61, normally popular, has had 1 or 2 other people on it since the lock-up. Today, there were nine. Two got off in Whaley Bridge and another 2 got on! No hope of observing the 2-metre rule and nobody seemed bothered. What’s going on?

Buxton has a small shopping mall in which almost everything which hadn’t previously gone bust has been forced to close. It’s now used mainly by Waitrose customers, the access from the pedestrianised street was closed off at the beginning of the lock-up, meaning that we elderly bus-users have to traipse a good 1/4 of a mile round to the car-park entrance. There, strict anti-social distancing is ‘policed’ by unsmiling goons and we shuffle forward (except for one man with a learning disability a couple of weeks ago who wouldn’t follow the rules and was treated by the Masked Ones as if he was even more dangerous than a super-spreader!)

Anyway I saw a woman going in via the pedestrian entrance today so I followed her and remarked, ‘Is this the first glimmering of sanity, do you think?’ She replied, ‘I think we should all go back to normal – now!’ – Hallelujah! We had a good chat and I told her about Lord Gumption as she hadn’t heard of him.

The mall opticians and bank have re-opened and it was busier, as was the pedestrianised street, despite the sad, closed shops. Maybe it’s the unusually warm, sunny weather. Apart from a few terrified ‘swervers’ and a few Masked Ones, the mall also seemed livelier. i was amused to witness one woman, wearing gloves, and pushing a trolley, wiping her gloved hands on her trousers and then scratching her nose.

A lot of people seem to be standing and passing a lot closer to each other. All in all , some grounds for cautious optimism.

11620 MoH, replying to MoH, 15, #26 of 623 🔗

Yes of course they may let us out some time. Though with so many out of work and businesses failing due to unworkable ‘new normal’ restriction and money being saved for basics, there will be almost as many people stuck at home anyway as there are now so the lockdown will still carry on by de facto. They will possibly be not allowed out due to track and trace requirements for ‘essential workers’ anyway so now we have the reality of millions stuck at home and probably not allowed out for quite some time ahead. There has to be a way out of this or effectively our lives are over.

11918 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to MoH, 5, #27 of 623 🔗

Simple, don’t listen to them and get on with life as normally as you can. That’s what I’ve been doing.
Live free or die!!!!!

11621 Poppy, replying to Poppy, 56, #28 of 623 🔗

I really think we’re on track to have the longest lockdown in the world. We’re into week 9 with no sign of any further easing anytime soon, especially if the track and trace app launch goes tits up which it undoubtedly will. What infuriates me more than anything is that such a long lockdown isn’t even necessary and doesn’t stop the masses of deaths in care homes – it’s just a way for the government to ‘make up’ for their disgraceful failure to manage this pandemic. It is immensely frustrating and right now I feel like I’m stuck in one of those dreams where I’m running really slowly, as if through treacle, trying to get to my destination but being perpetually pushed back by some invisible, unrelenting force, and I’m trying to open my mouth to scream but it’s all happening in slow motion and no sound is coming out.

I concede to the argument that back in March we didn’t know as much about the virus as we do today, but now that we have the benefit of hindsight, Johnson needs to give a ‘mea culpa’ speech and acknowledge that he and his administration got it wrong and start getting things moving again. We’ve had a few comments from ministers hinting that the ‘science was wrong’, but it’s just not enough. I’m definitely getting the impression that they’re trying not to rock the boat.

My only glimmer of hope in this is that if the populace has been ‘programmed’ to fear the virus and going outside, then surely they can be ‘programmed’ the other way, to fear the ruinous economic and health crises of the lockdown. This mass social experiment has shown that a large proportion of the populace will just do what the government tells them and will believe what they hear in the MSM. If they are told that the danger of the virus has passed and that we need to focus on getting the economy moving, and they are bombarded with all the apocalyptic predictions of mass unemployment and catastrophic recession, then surely the tide must turn the other way. I really think that’s the issue as to why people are being so slow – they just don’t understand or foresee the economic consequences yet because they’re so abstract and haven’t happened yet, but by the time they do, it will be too late. It is now so patently obvious that the danger has passed – no new cases or deaths in London, falling cases and deaths everywhere else in the UK, and in countries that have lifted the lockdown, no massive second spikes. Even the slight uptick in infections in places like Germany, China, and Korea turned out to be false alarms. The UK has lost all credibility – if all the countries were anthropomorphised to represent people at a party, the UK would be the demented old man dribbling in the corner while everyone else backs away.

Sorry, am getting quite aggy now given that I have not seen my boyfriend for over two months…!

11630 ▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to Poppy, 37, #29 of 623 🔗

Go see him. We won’t tell anyone.

11635 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to South Coast Worker, 16, #30 of 623 🔗

I agree, go for it!

11638 ▶▶▶▶ IanE, replying to kh1485, 21, #31 of 623 🔗

As long as he’s not called Ferguson! ;}

11666 ▶▶▶ Poppy, replying to South Coast Worker, 3, #32 of 623 🔗

I would see him tomorrow if I could but unfortunately we do not live near each other and he would be doing the driving (I sadly cannot drive) and he is still a bit hesitant to break the lockdown even though he knows deep down it’s a total joke…!

11667 ▶▶▶▶ Poppy, replying to Poppy, 2, #33 of 623 🔗

And I know I can see him with the 2m social distancing but we all know that completely goes against the entire idea of a romantic relationship so we are basically still restricted according to the gov. I give it until June when he finally gives in…! Surely others must be.

11693 ▶▶▶▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to Poppy, 12, #34 of 623 🔗

Social distancing is not a law. It’s guidance.

11697 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Poppy, replying to South Coast Worker, 1, #35 of 623 🔗

This is what I’ve been telling him until I’m blue in the face but he’s still reluctant…! But he currently has exams so I think he wants to wait until those are over and then think about what to do. He seems to be turning slowly.

11668 ▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Poppy, 5, #36 of 623 🔗

Well, that doesn’t bode well… you’ve been clear-thinking, defiant and strident during this business…. you must be somewhat disappointed by his reticence?

11698 ▶▶▶▶▶ Poppy, replying to AidanR, 1, #37 of 623 🔗

I am, but as I said above he currently has exams that he needs to get out of the way and he’s quite distracted. With any luck they’ll be finished at the same time schools go back/the app gets up and running but even if not, we will probably try and work around it. I’m sure others are

12171 ▶▶▶▶ Annabel Andrew, replying to Poppy, #38 of 623 🔗

He can drive! Tell him to just get in his car and come and see you – many people have and the more people do, the easier it will be to get back to normal- so don’t just give in to your bad dream analogy- you will not be the only one!!

12206 ▶▶▶▶ Lms23, replying to Poppy, #39 of 623 🔗

Get him to read this site. And watch this video:

https://m.youtube.com/watchv=5oaweiqijyk

If your boyfriend stays in his car, doesn’t get close and personal with anyone else, then there’s no problem. You know that, and you just have to persuade him of that.
For the vast majority under 60, there’s very little risk. Tell him to go for it…..

11640 ▶▶ LockdownKillsBusinesses, replying to Poppy, 7, #40 of 623 🔗

“don’t understand or foresee the economic consequences yet because they’re so abstract” Abstract? Things like the stock market and the 2008 credit crunch may have been abstract but the economic carnage of lockdown is hitting business where the really important stuff happens, in the supply chain, in the ability to source produce, in the ability to have custoemrs to sell to, in the ability to get workers in to work… Nothing abstract about the damage this is doing, how can your first thought in a pandemic NOT be “where are consumabels going to ekep coming from”, especially when we saw the loo roll panics as it began?

11664 ▶▶▶ Poppy, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 8, #41 of 623 🔗

You’re right, this is precisely the point I was making, the populace THINKS the economic consequences are abstract because they associate the economy with monopoly men and cigars and graphs on the FT but it’s anything but.

11665 ▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 2, #42 of 623 🔗

Most people don’t understand the supply chain. If you read Leonard Read’s “I, Pencil’ to them, they’d take on the expression of a dog being shown a Rubik’s Cube.

11661 ▶▶ Alison, replying to Poppy, 8, #43 of 623 🔗

UK as a whole is bad and bad enough, entirely agree… but the ridiculous document Nicola Sturgeon has released this afternoon suggests that lockdown in Scotland is absolutely indefinite… no school till 11 August, and then only part-time, loosening on 28 May is only going to allow for ‘local’ driving for exercise, seeing family outdoors etc, no dates for anything else. Also complete lack of distinction around which parts will be advice and which enforceable, a muddle which I am pretty sure is intentional. Have written to my MSP to clarify whether by driving across the country, as I intend to do, I’ll be breaking the law or just ignoring advice…. so unacceptable that it should be totally unclear from the 50 page document.

Apparently Nicola “felt like crying ” when she saw photos of some folks having fun on a beach near Edinburgh yesterday. And that’s the shoddy, emotive level of justification being offered for continued house arrest.

So, Scotland has decided apparently to commit to lockdown as an industry and a way of life.

11868 ▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Alison, 1, #44 of 623 🔗

Wow, what a dictatorship.

12173 ▶▶▶ Annabel Andrew, replying to Alison, 1, #45 of 623 🔗

Perhaps it’s time to all just get out and go against the ‘leaders’- because the moment that are not leading. We are a free people and should not stand for this.

11930 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Poppy, 9, #46 of 623 🔗

Why haven’t you seen your boyfriend Poppy? It’s entirely in your own hands. Or is he in another country?

I managed to persuade someone to give her grandchild a hug for the first time since the shut down and she thanked me and said it was the best thing ever.

I am sole carer for my mum who is 88 and very frail. I also go to work and do all the shopping.

When she puts her old head on my breast and I am able to comfort her by stroking her hair it is life affirming.

No-one under any circumstances will tell me when I can and can’t see my own family. They would have to kill me first.

Nobody knows when they will die and many people while waiting for “instructions” will find that when that time comes it will be too late.

A HUG IS HEALTH GIVE ONE WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!!!!!!

And by the way it was known from before the shut down that this virus is only dangerous for the elderly and those with underlying health conditions and that even 85% of those over 80 recover so I don’t want any excuses for this debacle.

We just need to get out there and start to live again and not in the new normal or we will be forever stuck in a joyless, soulless, fearful , futile dystopian nightmare that is no life at all.

11943 ▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Poppy, 4, #47 of 623 🔗

Go see him, be a rebel not a compliant sheeple.

12188 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Poppy, #48 of 623 🔗

My reply seems to have disappeared.

11622 kh1485, replying to kh1485, 8, #49 of 623 🔗

Another important announcement from Sergeant, Constable, Detective, Officer Peter Piss-Pott of Twat-Valley Police:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoVqouIqYgQ

11624 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to kh1485, 22, #50 of 623 🔗

Oh that’s wonderful! “follow the rules regardless of whether or not you know what they are!”. Thank you so much for posting this! I needed the giggle today. It’s been a bad day, very depressed and wondering what’s the point of going on like this . . . there doesn’t seem to be any tunnel never mind any light at the end of it. What started out as me thinking I can “do” 3 weeks lockdown to allow them time to bring the NHS (sorry, our NHS, naughty me) up to standard, has turned into some sort of living endless nightmare which just seems to drag on and on.

11628 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to CarrieAH, 10, #51 of 623 🔗

So agree CarrieAH. This isn’t life, is it? The mischevious part of me wonders what I can do tonight at 8 p.m … 🙂 I am trying to defy all this bonkersness with everything I have …

11644 ▶▶▶▶ Paul, replying to kh1485, 6, #52 of 623 🔗

I’ve considered turning the hosepipe on them,but they would probably lynch me from a lamp post,

11647 ▶▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Paul, 11, #53 of 623 🔗

Open the windows and play the Chicken Song at max vol.

11723 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to AidanR, 8, #54 of 623 🔗

For the record after vascillating between Ride of the Valkyries and The Chicken Song, I settled for playing the Russian National Anthem out the window… next week China, Cuba after that.

The Cuban one’s good. it’s circus music.

11726 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to AidanR, 1, #55 of 623 🔗

Currently busy listening to the LSO but next week I might play “God Save the Tsar” (pre-1917 Russian National Anthem) full blast.

11735 ▶▶▶▶▶ annie, replying to Paul, 3, #56 of 623 🔗

Not a chance, it would mean touching you.
Two-metre rule applies to all lynchings.

11967 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Jonathan Smith, replying to annie, 1, #57 of 623 🔗

That cracked me up and should not go unacknowledged.

11680 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to kh1485, 3, #58 of 623 🔗

Play loud music from 8.00pm onwards. It helps if you like punk or heavy metal.

11682 ▶▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Mark, #59 of 623 🔗

Not my bag (rock-wise the heaviest I get is the Eagles). Got a bit of Jonas Kaufmann though …

11685 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to kh1485, 1, #60 of 623 🔗

Not enough of a “wall of noise” really, but maybe Hotel California on max volume might do it if you skip the intro bit. Google tells me Jonas Kaufmann is operatic. Got any Wagner? Some of that might work.

11691 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Mark, 1, #61 of 623 🔗

No, no Wagner. But just looking at my Best of Eagles album, there’s a rollocking great song called ‘Get Over It’ … 🙂 The great Don Henley at his acerbic best …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eVtbXaGO8E

11709 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to kh1485, #62 of 623 🔗

Oops, wrong link … this is the real thing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hv5h2PRI6o

11712 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to kh1485, 1, #63 of 623 🔗

Oh yes – didn’t notice that first one was a cover….

11710 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to kh1485, 1, #64 of 623 🔗

LOL! Seems apt.

11694 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Mark, 1, #65 of 623 🔗

Ride of the Valkyries it is at 8pm. Thanks.

11701 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to AidanR, #66 of 623 🔗

And don’t forget to throw in the Entrance of the Gods into Valhalla for good measure

11705 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to AidanR, #67 of 623 🔗

Should give you time to get through the quiet bit at the beginning

11717 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to AidanR, 2, #68 of 623 🔗

I grew up with punk and hm, so the Stranglers has been my anti-clapper noise for the last few weeks.

Tonight I’m a bit angrier so I’m going with Killing Joke I am the Virus at full volume. I don’t mind the conspiracy theory stuff and the alienated anger suits at the moment.

11719 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Mark, 2, #69 of 623 🔗

Bloody typical, get my protest song on and the bastards don’t come out and clap! Must have got a bit tired woke-wise!

11725 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to kh1485, 4, #70 of 623 🔗

Ooof! That blew the cobwebs out! I honestly couldn’t tell you if there was any collective bleating here tonight.

11728 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to kh1485, 1, #71 of 623 🔗

Interesting… there’s no sign of it diminishing at all round here.

11932 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to AidanR, 1, #72 of 623 🔗

Poor you Aidan.

I gave the girl on the check out at Aldis a clap at 8 last night and as always had a clap for Sweden.

11845 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Michel, replying to AidanR, #73 of 623 🔗

There’s a nice heavy noise bit in Hector Berlioz’s Requiem (might hurt your speakers though 😉 )

11721 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Dave Tee, replying to kh1485, 4, #74 of 623 🔗

You can check out any time you like… but you can never leave.

11740 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Dave Tee, 3, #75 of 623 🔗

“We are all just prisoners here of our own device”

11949 ▶▶▶▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Mark, #76 of 623 🔗

In the land of the pigs the butcher is king by Meatloaf sums the sheeple up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-SLN3whXW0

11653 ▶▶▶ Paul, replying to CarrieAH, 23, #77 of 623 🔗

When I’m at home,not watching TV,not listening to the radio and keeping away from newspapers everything seems just about okay,but when I venture out into the wider world the way I see most people acting and hearing the things they are saying it gets me so low I just want to scurry off home,I assume this is exactly the reaction the government is hoping for ?,thank god for Lockdown Sceptics !.

11670 ▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Paul, 25, #78 of 623 🔗

Hear, hear … I look at people with their gas-masks on (yes, really, seen a few of those this week) and I see parents yank their children out of my way and I just feel like a frigging alien in my own country. Each morning I wake up and for a nano-second I feel like everything is as it was and then the grim reality dawns. And I keep wondering when are people going to rise up against this bollocks but they’re just not. It’s like being surrounded by a load of Stepford Wives.

11649 ▶▶ James007, replying to kh1485, 9, #79 of 623 🔗

The next time the demands are made for more police officers, I will think about Sergeant, Constable, Detective, Officer Peter Piss-Pott of Twat-Valley Police, and all his merry colleagues.
I wont be able to get the videos of his small army of officers going round London parks looking for bench-sitters and picnics 🙂

11652 ▶▶▶ James007, replying to James007, 1, #80 of 623 🔗

I mean I wont get them out of my mind 🙂

11676 ▶▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to James007, #81 of 623 🔗

He’s a credit to the force er … I mean service!

11673 ▶▶ Angela, replying to kh1485, 1, #82 of 623 🔗

He is hilarious!

11626 Biker, replying to Biker, 37, #83 of 623 🔗

yeah see this trace and track idea, how about they take a flying f**k with that? Who in their right minds thinks it’s a good idea that the government tracks you? To me this is the single reason this whole shame is being done. They want to follow you everywhere all the time. They are lunatics who’re prepared to destroy everything until you beg to be monitored 24 hours a day for your whole life. The governments of the world are criminals, they sell weapons to despotic regimes, they steal from Africa, they let millions die of starvation and preventable diseases and they let the fascists that run China sell their concentration camp made plastic rubbish in our communities. The world needs a revolution from these maniacs and it needs it now because if you think they’re gonna take their boots off out necks without a civil war then. I’m afraid i think we’re in a war for our lives.

11634 ▶▶ ianp, replying to Biker, 3, #84 of 623 🔗

Oh yeah, all people are in the same boat on this one. I just think it’s already here more or less, just have a look at your phone into the settings. Mines an android, and even IF you have location and bluetooth OFF, by default it runs bluetooth scanning in the background … so what was the ‘tech’ behind the bluetooth ‘handshake’ again eh? everyone has their phone on them , that leads to a lot of handshakes = Track and trace!

This stuff is already here. I did post this the other day and have noticed it all more and more.

All the new updates with new privacy t’s and c’s on various apps and websites.

I don’t have the energy to ‘spot the difference’ but I bet anything there is something sinister on them compared to previous terms … needs a lawyer to take a look at a couple.

Or maybe I am just paranoid…

11637 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to ianp, 4, #85 of 623 🔗

Paranoid? Could be – but that doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you!

11642 ▶▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to ianp, 1, #86 of 623 🔗

Thankfully I have two phones, one of which is registered in another country where I usually spend some months of the year. I’ll use that one for any tracing app and leave it at home.

11645 ▶▶▶▶ Carrie, replying to CarrieAH, 3, #87 of 623 🔗

Why download the tracing app at all? So far it is not compulsory – do you want to ‘signal’ to the government that you are happy to comply with being traced?

11791 ▶▶▶▶▶ T. Prince, replying to Carrie, #88 of 623 🔗

They’ll make it compulsory if you want to travel….gotcha!!

11799 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ JohnB, replying to T. Prince, 1, #89 of 623 🔗

Could an average teenage hacker not tweak bluetooth ?

11934 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to T. Prince, #90 of 623 🔗

Don’t travel then.

They will have to stop this madness when people finally have to face the economic consequences of this disaster.

11870 ▶▶▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Carrie, #91 of 623 🔗

The point is that your phone already is a tracing app. Downloading some crap from the NHS isn’t going to cut it at all, I have no doubt apple and Google will be involved… It’s amazing what sort of shit you find in developer settings.

And then quite hilariously mine has some Alerts for severe life threat, and child abduction…?! I mean…Wtf? switched it off.

However don’t be surprised if some nefarious stuff is already in the OS and you can’t touch it.

11695 ▶▶▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to CarrieAH, #92 of 623 🔗

It’s going to be integrated into the OS, and as they’re are only two left (that’s a story in itself) your only option to evade this is not to have a phone at all.

11753 ▶▶▶▶▶ Biker, replying to South Coast Worker, #93 of 623 🔗

this is true but you can still buy burner phones thought the tories were talking about banning them. If they do it’ll create a black market in unregistered phones

11771 ▶▶▶▶▶ Snake Oil Pussy, replying to South Coast Worker, 2, #94 of 623 🔗

Or buy a vintage Nokia that’s still good for calling someone to arrange an illicit meeting but has no GPS or OS.

11751 ▶▶▶ Biker, replying to ianp, 8, #95 of 623 🔗

i’ve been telling people not to have a smart phone since the first time i heard of them because it was obvious it was nothing more than a tracking device. Personally i use burner phones and change my phone from time to time. I’ve nothing to hide what with me being a boring shop worker who likes to ride motorcycles and go to the football. But that’s not the point. Like you say other peoples phones are tracking you, sod that.

11632 South Coast Worker, replying to South Coast Worker, 23, #96 of 623 🔗

Took a sojourn into the Daily Mail comments today. Great fun. On the people going to the beaches story, ‘Shoot them all’ ‘Put them all in prison’. But on the other side very gratifying to see that about half of the comments were hardline sceptics. I’m not sure if it’s always been the case there, or if the tide is turning. But I found it encouraging, even if it is only DM readers.

11833 ▶▶ Old fred, replying to South Coast Worker, 3, #97 of 623 🔗

It’s carnage on there – handbags flying everywhere- some very funny comments though plus plenty of lunatic ones

12045 ▶▶▶ JohnB, replying to Old fred, 1, #98 of 623 🔗

Public sentiment is very definitely changing.

11639 LockdownKillsBusinesses, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 8, #99 of 623 🔗

The 26% “covid-19 fee”, perhaps call it a “making up for the revenue we lost due to the draconian disastrous lockdowns” fee, I don’t think anyone could much disagree with it then. I’m visiting my local takeaways as soon as I hear they’ve reopened, if they want to charge a little more I’m find with that, but if they want to insist on cashless transactions and refuse good honest notes and coins then I’ll go elsewhere.

11905 ▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 1, #100 of 623 🔗

I don’t mind paying a little extra for luxuries too. Maybe a lot extra in some cases (eg flights if it means that the industry is no longer subsidised). But I am concerned about the potential for us to be heading into a severe recession, soaring unemployment and falling interest rates AND with rising inflation – it’s been many years since my A Level Economics but I’m pretty sure that spells Extra Bad News.

11641 CarrieAH, replying to CarrieAH, 16, #101 of 623 🔗

You couldn’t make this up. Greece have just announced the few countries who will be allowed to fly into Greece as they begin to open up to international travel. Amongst the first of the countries allowed . . . no not us, we are still banned . . . China! For goodness’ sake, it’s ridiculous. They put their citizens through a severe lockdown, come out the other side of it, and immediately let in the Chinese. Well, we know why. They are the people with money, who want to invest in Greece. I have truly had enough of snakelike politicians. All of them.

11660 ▶▶ IanE, replying to CarrieAH, 3, #102 of 623 🔗

Unbelievable – well, maybe not, but it SHOULD be!

11696 ▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to CarrieAH, 5, #103 of 623 🔗

Thailand have done the same thing, removed China from their ‘at risk’ visitor countries. It’s all about the money. Be it tourists, or the huge trade deal they’ve struck that has resulted in the drying up of the Mekong and destroyed thousands of lives.

11752 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to CarrieAH, 1, #104 of 623 🔗

Its the money innit?? You can bet that the same will follow here.

Jesus wept.

11802 ▶▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Bart Simpson, 3, #106 of 623 🔗

It’s basically a race now on which countries can get their economies up and running fastest. First mover advantage and all that.

11959 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to T. Prince, 1, #108 of 623 🔗

Taking ones with money doesn’t help to undercut wages and conditions for the proles.

12103 ▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Mark, #109 of 623 🔗

It contributes to making decent housing unaffordable for the proles.

12130 ▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to AidanR, #110 of 623 🔗

So it’s heads they win tails we lose for the movers and shakers pushing mass immigration.

12181 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ AidanR, replying to Mark, #111 of 623 🔗

That it is.

11643 LockdownKillsBusinesses, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 16, #112 of 623 🔗

The truth about the 2 metre rules is that they don’t need to make it a 1m metre rule, they need to make it not a rule. make it an ideal instead “Keep 2m apart whenever feasiby possible”. “As soon as not feasibly possible just maintain whatever distance you can”. Ideas about 1, 1.5 or 2m are all based on a mix of guesswork and statistical chance analysis, they work on probabilities not certainties. None of the rules can guarantee safety, but as long as people don’t crowd together where crowding is unnecessary then spread is still substantially reduced. And open the ****ing windows, moving air is more difficult for the virus to spread in than recirculated stuffiness.

11648 ▶▶ RDawg, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 30, #113 of 623 🔗

They need to forget social distancing entirely. It is totally unnecessary.

11936 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to RDawg, 2, #114 of 623 🔗

Absolutely correct and incredibly anti social.

11658 ▶▶ IanE, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 8, #115 of 623 🔗

I suspect that whilst there is guidance, businesses will feel compelled to obey for fear of legal challenges. Since the ‘government’ clearly wish to have such guidance, the only chance of survival is dropping of the limit to the WHO guideline. Not much chance even of that though with the current load of chancers.

11700 ▶▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to IanE, 7, #116 of 623 🔗

The 2m thing isn’t law. Even though everyone seems to think it is. However, is it different for commercial premises? We ignore it completely at my workplace

11767 ▶▶▶▶ Snake Oil Pussy, replying to South Coast Worker, 2, #117 of 623 🔗

That depends what you mean by “law”. There is criminal law enforceable by the police, which the 2 metre rule is not. And there’s grounds for an employee (or other building user) to sue an employer (or building operator) should he or she cntract the disease while on the premises. That’s what’s different for commercial premises. And unless there’s primary legislation or very clear case law that says you are NOT liable if one person passes an infectious disease to another while on your property, then the 2 metre rule will end up being enforced by insurance companies.

11777 ▶▶▶▶▶ JohnB, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 3, #118 of 623 🔗

How to prove the disease was caught on the premises ?

11820 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to JohnB, 5, #119 of 623 🔗

Impossible to prove where you got the disease.

11699 ▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 10, #120 of 623 🔗

I can’t stand it. I deliver to retail shops all day and naturally completely ignore it. But the queues are ludicrous, the government were right, people can’t gauge distance as most people are at least 4 metres apart. I just want to scream at them. Sometimes I feel like if I shout a call to arms for sceptics at a silly queue whether anyone would put the head above the parapet. Everyone seems so scared to question this. Naturally I loudly voice my scepticism and people look at me like I’m nuts. Even though I have all the facts and figures and they have nothing but the good word of our honest government.

11908 ▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to LockdownKillsBusinesses, 1, #121 of 623 🔗

Yessss! I can’t wait to tell all the lazy people at work (who are always cold because they don’t move) that we need to turn off the central heating and have the windows open as it’s healthier for us.

11646 RDawg, replying to RDawg, 23, #122 of 623 🔗

After constant pestering of my MP’s office (and believe me when I say I have been very persistent), I am finally getting a callback tomorrow between 1 and 2pm. I don’t think she has any idea of the lecture she will receive from me. I will try my absolute best to stay calm, rational and use only evidence based arguments to attempt to win her over.

If everyone on this site pushed to speak with their local MP, I do believe we could convince one or two more to make a stand in Parliament. Anyone remember what Tom Watson achieved with the expenses scandal? It only takes one…

It is up to each and every one of us to contact our MPs and try our very best to convince them why lockdowns do not work and why social distancing must be abolished. Keep pushing for a telephone consultation. Do not take no for an answer.

Good luck!
R Dawg

11655 ▶▶ Oaks79, replying to RDawg, 4, #123 of 623 🔗

Well done on actually getting a call and good luck, stay calm and have all your evidence etc written down but you probably have that already. I’ve not heard a peep from my MP I’ve sent a letter and I’ve emailed every day.

11662 ▶▶▶ RDawg, replying to Oaks79, 3, #124 of 623 🔗

Good work. Call their constituency office. Keep calling every day and say as a constituent you demand a response. Gotta make these people work for your votes. 😉

11657 ▶▶ AidanR, replying to RDawg, 8, #125 of 623 🔗

A quid says she ends the call abruptly with an accusation that you are bullying and abusing her, followed by a twitter thread bemoaning the rude, angry, ungrateful men in her constituency.

11677 ▶▶ JohnB, replying to RDawg, 2, #126 of 623 🔗

Well done RDawg. Are you considering recording it ?

11808 ▶▶▶ RDawg, replying to JohnB, 3, #127 of 623 🔗

I won’t record it as that would be unethical without her consent. I will try my best to give a calm, rational and evidence-based argument citing various epidemiologists and scientific papers etc. Angry, ranting voices never win.

11811 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to RDawg, 1, #128 of 623 🔗

Depending how flexible your ethics are, you could tape it only in order to type out a transcript and then destroy the recording (or perhaps keep it in a secure location in case she subsequently accuses you of lying). Though that could have legal consequences if you ever were to produce the tape, I’m not sure.

11938 ▶▶▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Mark, #129 of 623 🔗

Why should she object to you taping it?

11962 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to A HUG IS HEALTH, #130 of 623 🔗

I think politicians are pretty twitchy about talking on the recorded record unless they’re prepped for it, which is a much bigger deal than just a chat with a constituent. But, yes she might just agree to it.

11683 ▶▶ Brommers, replying to RDawg, #131 of 623 🔗

Does anyone happen to have a link to the template for writing to your MP that I think was posted on here urging them to end the lockdown. I could have sworn it was on here but I can’t seem to find it, thanks.

11707 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to RDawg, 1, #132 of 623 🔗

All the best!!!

11783 ▶▶ James007, replying to RDawg, 1, #133 of 623 🔗

Good luck, come back and let us know how it goes!

11955 ▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to RDawg, #134 of 623 🔗

Well done.

11651 swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 8, #135 of 623 🔗

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1263294734249988102/photo/1

If infected and between 18-44 yrs, there’s a <1% chance of needing any hospitalization whatsoever and chances of dying are <0.1%. Notes: – Risk decreases dramatically if healthy – NYC has worse morbidity than most

And for 0-17 year age group Infection hospitalization rate 0.10 % IFR 0.002%

And this is New York City one of the worst hotspots well covered by BBC/MSM

It looks very similar to the Spanish figures. And this is supposed to be the worst localized Covid-19 outbreak in the world.

11704 ▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to swedenborg, 4, #136 of 623 🔗

And that’s with the inflated NY numbers. They’re defrauding the government to get the Medicare cash as they’re basically bankrupt. Presuming everyone here knows about the cash incentives for treating the rona

11659 annie, replying to annie, 18, #137 of 623 🔗

I need help from my extended family of sane sceptics.

I look through the site, follow the links, think ‘Sanity is returning, it’s obvious that only morons could want the lockdown to continue, soon I’ll be free.’
And then I return to the real ( can it be?) world of Gulag Wales, where the lockdown seems poised to go on for ever, I am forbidden to drive a mile so as to have a change of scene, the council is scraping the barrel to find more car parks to rope off, and my zombie neighbours are
proudly preparing for their tenth orgy of NHS worship. (I presume that there are no cancer sufferers, or victims of other scourges, among them. Meanwhile, our local hospital proudly claims to be devoting all its resources to ONE Covid patient.)

What can I doooo? Save me before I go entirely dotty! Pleeeeeese!

11872 ▶▶ ianp, replying to annie, 5, #138 of 623 🔗

I feel for you… it’s beyond any comprehension. The pot n planners were out near me, but they are a small and ridiculous cult minority – if you remember it was like all those mawkish minute ‘applause’ you used to get at football when some life long fan’s dog fucking died. True faux grief culture.

I am now taking huge delight in precisely timing my evening bike ride through their little clapathon – just waiting for one of the zombies to try and give me any grief.

I thinking of doing wheelies next week, but they are probably so stupid they’ll think I am doing it in tribute to the NHS.

11945 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to annie, 2, #139 of 623 🔗

Go about your daily life as normal as possible.

Drive where you like. I’m sure it is not legal to restrict how far you can drive.

Ignore the clappers, they are indoctrinated idiots.

Be proud that you are a sane, free thinking individual.

Stay strong.

12052 ▶▶▶ Fiat, replying to A HUG IS HEALTH, 2, #140 of 623 🔗

On several occassions been walking along the street during the clap. Closest I’ve felt to being royalty!

12182 ▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to annie, 2, #141 of 623 🔗

Just remember that you are on the side of sanity and sense.

Don’t take any notice of any rules.

People who so far have been living in their own wee bubbles will have to wake up soon and face the reality. I think they will then want to get back to normal.

I am having fun challenging people on Twitter and putting across my own propaganda. There are more people on our side than you might think.

Stay strong, stay sane, stay positive.

12217 ▶▶▶ annie, replying to A HUG IS HEALTH, #142 of 623 🔗

Thanks to all the above. You are my oxygen!

11663 Barney McGrew, 3, #143 of 623 🔗

Great confusion over the fact that Stockholm’s population was only at 7% antibodies at the end of April.

“…Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.

“It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that’s the case it’s surprising they are so wrong,” he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. “Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

Well, duh! We’ve been saying this for ages.

(copied over from yesterday’s comments – I posted it just as today’s page arrived)

11690 ▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to DressageRider, 21, #145 of 623 🔗

The aricle’s right about the “cloud of obfuscation”. Boris Johnson’s words a week last Sunday when he supposedly eased the lockdown disgusted me. A load of constructive ambiguity topped off with a threat of increased fines for “the minority that break the rules”. God, I hate that man – and until a couple of months ago I was a deluded fan. He may well go down in history as, objectively, the worst prime minister ever.

11754 ▶▶▶ Biker, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #146 of 623 🔗

worse than Gordon Brown?

11774 ▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Biker, 8, #147 of 623 🔗

I think Boris’s cost to the economy is the same as the 2008 crash every few days! He spends Gordon Brown’s gold every two days.

11798 ▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #148 of 623 🔗

A fair point, well made…

11806 ▶▶▶▶▶ Biker, replying to Barney McGrew, #149 of 623 🔗

Fair enough, worse than Gordon Brown, Worse than Churchill then?

11812 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Biker, 5, #150 of 623 🔗

Far worse IMO. Boris is managing to spend about the same amount of money fighting a phantom as Churchill spent fighting a real enemy. And probably the same number of lives once the deferred operations, civil unrest, food shortages etc. feed through. And we don’t yet know that Boris’s face-saving exercise isn’t going to result in an actual war.

11824 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Biker, replying to Barney McGrew, #151 of 623 🔗

before Churchill, British Empire after Churchill, no British Empire, Boris will have to go some to make a bigger mess of things than that

11803 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to Barney McGrew, 9, #152 of 623 🔗

Amazing, but true. I thought May was the worst ever and now the floor just dropped again. I lent him my vote as the least worst option from a dreadful bunch in the hope that we would at least get Brexit: I now fear even for that and we have been force-fed HS2, Huawei and net zero into the ‘bargain’!

11946 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Barney McGrew, #153 of 623 🔗

He has already won that award and then some.

11671 swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 13, #154 of 623 🔗

https://www.corrieredellosport.it/news/attualit/cronaca/2020/05/20-69959112/il_coronavirus_circolava_in_italia_prima_dell_epidemia_arriva_la_conferma/

According to a new study, 1 in 20 blood donors in Milan had COVID-19 before Feb 21st, the date of the first measured case at Codogno Hospital.
What does this mean? Take a look at the Italian curve https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
20% of blood donors already infected even before you can see any cases on the curve.The infection was already peaking long before we got the testing. Lockdown meaningless. The pandemic has its own path.

11672 ▶▶ swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 1, #155 of 623 🔗

sorry should be 5% but still enormous numbers in total

11711 ▶▶▶ guy153, replying to swedenborg, 1, #156 of 623 🔗

Very interesting. This is further indication that the highest you get to is about 20%. If it was already 5% of blood donors back in February it will have reached the highest it was ever going to reach some time ago. The “sigmoid curve” gets to a few %, then shoots up very rapidly, and then gradually levels off to the herd immunity threshold.

11720 ▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to guy153, 7, #157 of 623 🔗

This is 5% of population already past the infection and it is easy to imagine how many persons infected 10 days later. Levitt’s discussion of Gompertz curve of this pandemic is so interesting. The cases explode over a remarkable short time period reach a roof very early on and then continuous decline. The roof must be way below 60% the so called herd immunity and many discussing a lower 15-20% level including antibodies and also T cells mediated immunity and cross immunity from our other coronaviruses. The Bell curve(which in my eyes already slightly resemble Gompertz curve) you now see for Italy should be pushed back a few weeks for the infection peak and should have even more the typical Gompertz curve. That should be followed by the death curve which already has a more Gompertz like curve. (In Gompertz curve 2/3rd of the cases comes after the peak).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw2ZTaiN97k

11733 ▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 4, #158 of 623 🔗

Checked again as this is very hot news but also from another source
https://www.kongnews.it/primo-piano/a-milano-1-positivo-su-20-prima-della-pandemia-lo-studio-su-donatori-di-sangue/
Here it says that 4.6% was positive at the start 21st February and even more startling only 7.1%
In the beginning of April. Perhaps even a better psuggestion that a roof is hit very early on in the epidemic?
Dai risultati, è emerso che all’inizio della pandemia, il 4,6% dei donatori, 1 donatore di sangue su 20, aveva già gli anticorpi contro il coronavirus, percentuale che è salita al 7,1% all’inizio di aprile.
La ricerca è stata realizzata e coordinata da Daniele Prati e Luca Valenti del Dipartimento di Medicina Trasfusionale ed Ematologia del Policlinico di Milano insieme a Gianguglielmo Zehender dell’Università degli Studi di Milano, in collaborazione con diversi ricercatori provenienti anche dall’Ospedale Luigi Sacco e dall’Istituto Europeo di Oncologia

12237 ▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to swedenborg, #159 of 623 🔗

Note that in absolute terms this is an estimate of the seroprevalence only among asymptomatic patients as that was one of the criteria for being allowed to give blood.

They also had a pretty low sensitivity for IgM (the antibodies that appear later) of only 67%, which is why the 95CI for the final percentage is quite wide (4.4% to 10.8%).

We also need to subtract at least two weeks from the date of the test to allow for the time it takes for antibodies to appear, so the final state there represents the infections around March 25th or so, which looks it was around the peak of their epidemic.

This is consistent with a maximum of around 15% to 20% for the whole population including the symptomatic cases.

11734 ▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to swedenborg, 2, #160 of 623 🔗

This is great – a smoking gun. I don’t speak Italian, but I presume you’re saying that they have retrospectively tested donated blood and found it contains SARS-Cov-2..? If so, it is real evidence from before they began fiddling the figures.

So how much of this blood was transfused into patients?

11739 ▶▶▶ Bob, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #161 of 623 🔗

According to Google translate they did antibody testing. The translated article seems to be arguing that the results imply that the population is far from herd immunity, but I’m not sure why as if it was 1 in 20 in February then it would have increased since then. There’s also a weird paragraph about the apparent benefit of social distancing that doesn’t make sense to me.

11756 ▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Barney McGrew, 1, #162 of 623 🔗

It’s antibodies they’re finding in the blood indicating people who have had Covid and recovered. There shouldn’t ever be any virus in the blood (blood can get infected but not with. SARS2 I don’t think.

The virus is in the cells in your lungs, nose, etc, and in the spaces between the cells.

11787 ▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to guy153, 2, #163 of 623 🔗

It seems the RNA can be detected in blood..?

“Because of the rapid increase of cases of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in plasma the safety of China’s blood supply became a major concern. Most blood centers and blood banks in China began taking measures to ensure blood safety”

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0839_article

11831 ▶▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Barney McGrew, 1, #164 of 623 🔗

I stand corrected… sounds like it is at least a potential issue in blood donation then.

11747 ▶▶ Peter Thompson, replying to swedenborg, 1, #165 of 623 🔗

1 in 20 is 5 % not 20 % .

11800 ▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Peter Thompson, 2, #166 of 623 🔗

I corrected that immediately below my comment.Sorry. The interesting thing is that during the epidemic from Feb to early April it increased only to 7%. Many comments that this is not herdimmunity but they forget that antibodies is not everything in this immunity,there is a crossimmunity from other coronavruses and also T cells immunity triggered by contact with the virus.The important thing is that there is a roof which is rather low when the epidemic slows in a remarkable pattern which seems to happen everywhere.

11678 Will Jones, 4, #167 of 623 🔗

Thanks for including the note about the graph and whether the lag is less than 23 days. The key point is that there is more recent and more relevant data than the Wuhan study from Italy https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-analysis-of-deaths and the UK https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1 that puts the median gap between symptoms and death at more like 10 days than 18. Sceptics should use this data to ensure our case is as robust as possible.

London presumably peaked earlier because it was hit earlier, with more people visiting or returning from infected regions.

11686 Tony Rattray, replying to Tony Rattray, 11, #168 of 623 🔗

Yes, wee krankie is following the money in scotland. 10 million uk adults now being paid to do nothing until the end of july, so no need to do anything of any substance until aug. Almost certain now scotland will be the last european country out of ‘lockdown’. When the sun is out, it is still very much a never ending bank holiday feel up here – lots of never-ending b&bs, etc. In other words, despite the statistical probability that a healthy Scottish individual under 60 is now more likely to die from falling into a b&b whilst retrieving a burnt haggis than the virus, many working age adults are still more than happy with the current situation.

Yes, very interesting comment from toby about the strong possibility of negative interest rates on the horizon! Best put your money under the bed literally this time for what is to come.

11687 ▶▶ Tony Rattray, replying to Tony Rattray, 1, #169 of 623 🔗

Meant bbq (not b&b)!

11727 ▶▶ GetaGrip, replying to Tony Rattray, 22, #170 of 623 🔗

Some aren’t.

2 blokes (no masks, not swervers) overheard in Tesco Inverness today:

‘F***ing lazy b******s, on their arses at home on 500 quid a week’

‘F****** hell. I’m getting 480 at work full time! And we’ re f***** busy’

F***ing lazy *b******s’.

Made my day.

11743 ▶▶▶ Tony Rattray, replying to GetaGrip, 4, #171 of 623 🔗

Yes indeed, so long as the government retains in working order the part of the economy that feeds the masses, they are more than happy to keep clapping in-between each bbq and bicycle ride!

11759 ▶▶ Biker, replying to Tony Rattray, 25, #172 of 623 🔗

i’m in Scotland and it’s busy again, everyone in my street has visitors and most are still working. Admittedly we’re all working class and do the jobs that working class people do but no one around me buys this bullshit and are mad that we’re working and paying tax to hand to people sitting doing nothing. It makes me hate them for it. I tell anyone and everyone i meet who spouts the government line they are not thinking straight, don’t have a clue about what’s going on and i consider their pathetic behaviour to be a threat to my future liberty and life. I’m disgusted how all these people are prepared to give up their lives and force me to do the same.

11876 ▶▶ ianp, replying to Tony Rattray, 1, #173 of 623 🔗

Or spend it.. that could be a side effect of paying banks to hold your cash. Pent up demand so to speak

Don’t be surprised if physical currency is phased out as well – may as well burn that cash you might be hoarding.

It’s oh so crafty

Follow da money, some people (a tiny minority) are going to get insanely rich out of this. Wonder who… ? ;

11757 ▶▶ JASA, replying to CarrieAH, 1, #175 of 623 🔗

It is very good and seems to cover everything. It now rests on getting a good judge who will listen to and read everything and actually be impartial.

11786 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to JASA, 5, #176 of 623 🔗

I would imagine whoever gets this case is going to be crapping himself.

11692 Mark, 13, #177 of 623 🔗

DeSantis was a bit soft on the media and the panickers in general I think.

These poisonous idiots have been predicting disaster if their dire warnings weren’t heeded time after time, from Sweden to half the US states, and time after time nothing happened. Yet we are still cowering in fear of their nonsense? Wtf?

11702 A13, replying to A13, 28, #178 of 623 🔗

It looks like Prof Gupta has finally been given a wider platform to speak: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/pubs-restaurants-could-reopen-now-without-risking-public-health/
The latest headline from The Telegraph – Pubs and restaurants could reopen now without risking public health, says Oxford scientist.

Does it mean that the government will start listening to the right scientists? I do hope so.

The article repeats what she said during an interview for Unherd. Nice to see this on MSM.
“Pubs and restaurants could reopen tomorrow without posing the threat of a second wave of coronavirus, a leading Oxford scientist has suggested.”

11708 ▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to A13, 5, #179 of 623 🔗

Great minds think alike – or read the same newspapers at the same time (see below)!

11927 ▶▶ Jonathan Smith, replying to A13, #180 of 623 🔗

I hope you’re right. Newspaper circulation isn’t what it was!

12199 ▶▶ Annabel Andrew, replying to A13, 1, #181 of 623 🔗

I listened to the podcast yesterday- it’s such a shame that she thought that being in line with the libertarian view was ‘unfortunate’!

11703 Tyneside Tigress, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 19, #182 of 623 🔗

This, according to Prof Gupta – “I would say that it is more likely that the pathogen arrived earlier than we think it did, that it had already spread substantially through the population by the time lockdown was put in place. I think there’s a chance we might have done better by doing nothing at all.” Now, bearing in mind she is in Oxford, where there are a high number of Chinese students coming and going (I think I read somewhere the city has one of the highest percentages of thoracic diseases given the constant to-and-fro of students and tourists, plus the very damp conditions that make it a breeding ground for pathogens), and given that her husband runs the Jenner Institute, I would put money on her knowing the facts of the matter!

11878 ▶▶ ianp, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 4, #183 of 623 🔗

To be honest, it’s exactly what I thought at the end of February, without the help of any scientists… But common sense then deserted the whole world. Deliberately I would say.

11948 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to ianp, #184 of 623 🔗

Me too.

11706 Adrian, 14, #185 of 623 🔗

From Switzerland, where I live, the lockdown has been eased out on May 11th, with schools reopening, bars, restaurants, etc. And the lockdown wasn’t too severe, comparing to other countries. We could go out in fact as many times we wanted, use parks or whatever. Not too many masked zombies either. However I fear the MSM propaganda has made a terrible damage which we will feel at full coming september. People just don’t go to restaurants, they don’t go to shops either except the still “essential” groceries. Part of the population is still afraid of Kung-Flu so they won’t go out anyway, the other part has realised that the economy is going to be in the shitter so they stick to just the basic shopping. Here its called technical unemployment, I guess what you call furlough. We are at 37% of the workforce. Now that the lockdown is ending the government is taking everybody off the furlough. Result? The unemployment budget has exploded, literally. To cover it there will be, wait for it….., a strong tax increase.
It is not the finish of the lockdown that will put everything back together, I am afraid the psychological damage done by the propaganda is going much longer lasting effects…and is the issue with this new normal.

By the way I am from the french speaking part of Suisse, if the english is too atrocius, well tough luck.
Here we have the excellent “Swiss Propaganda Research” site which has been on it from the first day, but not such an excellent journalistic type site as lockdwonsceptics. Keep up the good work, you are a beacon for the rest of the world as well

11713 Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), -4, #186 of 623 🔗

Toby, I think you should really change the plot in your article…
http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/images/cumulative_total_200520.png
… I’m mean I understand it would basically mean just deleting the whole section as it becomes meaningless.

11718 ▶▶ Old fred, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #187 of 623 🔗

??????????????

11741 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Old fred, -8, #188 of 623 🔗

He added a Stop Press update to this article in the section about there being less death in 2019/20 than 2017/18, but did not change the link to the image in this article. The referenced articles new image shows the exact opposite of Toby’s point…

… don’t know how much more obvious I can make my point.

… maybe you just fell asleep on the keyboard?

11748 ▶▶▶ A13, replying to Old fred, 1, #189 of 623 🔗

I think he means that if you follow the link posted by Toby, it would take you the same graph but with different numbers.
“From the end of November to the second week in May, in 2019/2020 there were 312,339 deaths . For the same period in 2017/2018 there were 281,566 deaths.”

11716 Bart Simpson, replying to Bart Simpson, 12, #190 of 623 🔗

Had to go to the cursed post office again this time to post a Father’s Day card to my dad who lives overseas, I was preparing myself for another clash with masked rude post office worker from a few weeks’ ago but to my surprise it was a much more normal experience.

Sure I had to queue outside for 5 minutes but once I got inside, I was served by a nice young man who wasn’t wearing any mask or gloves. In fact our interaction was pretty standard, we didn’t chat but he was smiley and provided a good service.

No one else was masked save for an Indian bloke who kept touching his face with his gloved hands then rubbed his hands on his trousers.

Thank God that will be my last trip to the Post Office for a long, long time.

11730 ▶▶ BecJT, replying to Bart Simpson, 13, #191 of 623 🔗

I can understand say elderly people who live alone, who have to go out for provisions wearing a mask, even if the risk is very small, I get why they are frightened.

Everyone else I just think is a pillock and very self indulgent, it’s a bit like wearing a crash helmet in a bank, it’s just rude.

I too am seeing a bit more normality when I go out, and am also having chatty conversations with shop staff, who seem very business as usual.

11732 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to BecJT, 7, #192 of 623 🔗

Exactly. That was the reason why I had a run in a few weeks’ ago as she (post office worker) was wearing a mask and of course it muffled her speech and I couldn’t understand her. She became rude when I asked her politely to repeat what she said twice.

I agree that people who wear masks (not the old who are possibly frightened) are self indulgent. I also don’t like the disapproving looks I get from people who wear them, it’s a perverse form of virtue signalling as if to imply that they’re superior because they see themselves as “caring” for their health and that of others.

I will do my shopping tomorrow so will see how I get on.

11742 ▶▶▶▶ annie, replying to Bart Simpson, 7, #193 of 623 🔗

I an fortunate enough to own a horse. To ensure her comfort and my safety, her saddle normally receives regular checks.
As of now, the saddler will not perform the checks unless both she and I (though not the horse) are gloved and masked, although the procedure involves no close contact and takes place entirely in the open air.
No way.
No doubt the saddler us acting under duress from a Superior Moron, but still – no way.
The horse is happy and I am happy and we are just going to stick it out.

11762 ▶▶▶ Biker, replying to BecJT, 4, #194 of 623 🔗

i wear my crash helmet when i go into the garage and they used to get upset about it but these days, not a peep. I guess they think it’s like a mask

11773 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Biker, 2, #195 of 623 🔗

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good…

11950 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to BecJT, 1, #196 of 623 🔗

The elderly people around me are the least worried and they don’t wear masks.

12157 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to BecJT, 1, #197 of 623 🔗

Elderly people around me are the least worried and don’t wear masks.

Masks are dangerous as they reduce the oxygen to the brain and vital organs, which in turn suppresses the immune system.

I think they should be banned for people driving.

12179 ▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to A HUG IS HEALTH, #198 of 623 🔗

That probably explains why I’ve seen people who wear them turn into a weird shade of green – trouble breathing methinks.

11724 Markus, replying to Markus, 1, #199 of 623 🔗

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

Has anyone seen any news about the situation in Iran? Their curve is way different than anywhere else.

11744 ▶▶ Guirme, replying to Markus, 2, #200 of 623 🔗

I wondered about that too. I did wonder if their figures are reliable or to what extent enhanced testing is producing more new cases; certainly the deaths ate falling and this is perhaps the better metric.

11731 CarrieAH, replying to CarrieAH, 13, #201 of 623 🔗

I think the clap for carers thing has petered out round where I live. We were all out this evening and I was prepared to do my waving and smiling instead of clapping – but I didn’t need to. Nobody actually clapped, we just stood around chatting! Great stuff.

11737 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to CarrieAH, 4, #202 of 623 🔗

Either the novelty has worn off or the public are slowly waking up from the zombie apocalypse induced torpor.

11746 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to CarrieAH, 6, #203 of 623 🔗

Unf the sheeps still out on their doorsteps this even round near me 🙁

11764 ▶▶ Paul, replying to CarrieAH, 11, #204 of 623 🔗

Seems to have stopped around my way too,thank god,at the height of it we had a firework display and an air raid siren !.Incidentaly,our daughter works on the so-called NHS ‘frontline’ and she finds the cult worship of the NHS baffling and ridiculous.

11788 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Paul, 1, #205 of 623 🔗

They were letting off rockets round here too. Any excuse

11879 ▶▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Farinances, 1, #206 of 623 🔗

Sounds like ‘essentials’ have been purchased then..

11780 ▶▶ James007, replying to CarrieAH, 3, #207 of 623 🔗

Sadly round my way it has got louder and longer each week. Seemed to go on for ages with pots, pans and bells being deployed as required.
I wondered if clapping had now been made government “advice”

11797 ▶▶ IanE, replying to CarrieAH, 1, #208 of 623 🔗

Worse than usual round me – rather depressing!

11801 ▶▶ T. Prince, replying to CarrieAH, 6, #209 of 623 🔗

We’ll be clapping for teachers from 1 June….what a brave lot, facing up to toddlers!

11823 ▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to CarrieAH, 2, #210 of 623 🔗

Never seen any clapping since this started where I live and it is a residential street

11881 ▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Nigel Baldwin, #211 of 623 🔗

Consider it free from ‘covid’ then. There are still a minority of persistent roaches that need exterminating in my area

11880 ▶▶ ianp, replying to CarrieAH, #212 of 623 🔗

I think we need to find out where the clapping virus hotzones are… Seems a real mix of responses.

11920 ▶▶ Jonathan Smith, replying to CarrieAH, 3, #213 of 623 🔗

There are plenty of smackdown enthusiasts around here and normally they clap like seals, but whilst the hush has not descended yet, it has diminished. I think that sometimes klaxons, fireworks & pots and pans are a sign of this with the true believers attempting to make more noise to compensate for those who have peeled away.

It’s interesting, but people fight shy of asking me why I won’t do it, partly no doubt, because contrarians might shake the faith.

11736 Mark, 5, #214 of 623 🔗

‘Virus Raged at City Jails, Leaving 1,259 Guards Infected and 6 Dead‘ – Alarming story in the New York Times, until you divide 1,259 by six and realise that means an IFR of 0.5%, roughly half that assumed by the Imperial College modellers. And the population concerned probably suffers from below average health

Especially as the story says there are 9680 in total, so you get 13% affected, which fits pretty well with this infection running through and reaching its natural peak, especially if there were a fair few undetected cases.

11738 Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), -17, #215 of 623 🔗

Your “peaked before the lockdown” plot, this is fools errand.

The best way to determine the effect is to compare the UK to a country that didn’t lockdown as much as the UK, say Sweden, and look at a long running average of daily new HOSPITAL cases before and after…
https://medium.com/pragmapolitic/in-the-uk-did-the-lockdown-tip-the-balance-2cb1cd8d5437

I also don’t know where the author got their London death peak from, as ONS do NOT publish daily data by location for anything more granular than England and Wales.

As to the substance of the point, I pointed it out to you over a month ago that TFL shows that tube travel was at 50% by the 15th, 30% by the 19th. comment image

I know you like to think that “working-from-home” is NOT a lockdown/suppression measure and that as a result Sweden is not in a “lockdown” despite having a 65% reduction in commuter traffic, but this is what caused new cases in both countries to change.

As your author’s plot shows deaths plateau from the 10th, but did not start dropping till the 13th, which would mean even by their plot it was people’s behaviour from the 21st of March that made them start to fall not just plateau like in Sweden.

Given by the 21st tube travel was at 15%, THIS was the cause of the peak. After all you can only have a peak when things start to drop. Being at 15% commuting is not like being at 35% as in Sweden, which means it must have been this extra oomf that “caused the peak” in the UK.

So even by your wacky spot the tipping point method, which is far less accurate than a long running average, it was going beyond 65% to more than 80% that turned the tide. The long running average shows that our measures have cut new HOSPITAL cases from 70/day/m pop to 21, less than a 1/3 of our peak. Whereas Sweden has not turned the tide at all, and is still at 2.5x our level. Given we had 60% more growth than them before… how could we have followed? Be honest with yourself. comment image

Being a sceptic is not about contriving data to present a lie. It is entirely possible to accept that the UK needed stronger measures to stem the tide and move on, but be sceptical and VERY annoyed that it has taken us this long to get TTT sorted meaning it is going to take us EVEN longer than we need to get out of these suppression measures.

Please start focusing on honest critique, not this smoke and mirrors guff… your capacity to bring focus to areas is far greater than ours and you just erode your believability by sharing this stuff.

11745 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 6, #216 of 623 🔗

He’s back!

11785 ▶▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to A13, #218 of 623 🔗

Lol his twitter feed is as dead as mine

11869 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Farinances, #219 of 623 🔗
11862 ▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to A13, 1, #220 of 623 🔗

I’ve been a member on this site since Toby founded it, I clearly state who I am provide a reference to my blog, and to my twitter handle.

“Guest A13″… I think you seem to be hiding behind double standards.

11816 ▶▶▶ StevieH, replying to Farinances, #221 of 623 🔗

77th Brigade…

11857 ▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to Farinances, #222 of 623 🔗

I know what you mean!

11864 ▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Old fred, 1, #223 of 623 🔗

Well somone needs to provide some actual analysis rather than just rhetoric.

11863 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Farinances, #224 of 623 🔗

So quick to say hello! Clearly you missed me.

11883 ▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Farinances, 7, #225 of 623 🔗

I’ll leave the patient statisticions to debunk this fool.

To put it simply, we have used a nuclear bomb to kill a bloody mosquito. Now watch out for the fallout, it will be harsh, it will be severe. It will cost lives.

And I before I get any ‘you wouldn’t say that if you knew someone that…’ crap, my mother died in a care home some five years ago, she got an infection. From outside. This shit just happens and it’s crap and a measured response was needed.

Lockdown is far from measured. It’s pointless

11749 ▶▶ Bob, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 3, #226 of 623 🔗

CEBM gives the deaths per day by region of England, including London:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-20th-may/

11848 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Bob, #227 of 623 🔗

The author of the plot cites ONS not CEBM, but fine, perfectly reliable source. Doesn’t really change the argument, as the peak starts dropping from the 10th in London too, and given there is no strong argument that the London average would have to be 23 days, at the more typical 21 days it still fits the commuter data. Esepcially as there are likely some unknown number of days lag in the TFL data to consider…

11750 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 17, #228 of 623 🔗

I know you like to think that “working-from-home” is NOT a lockdown/suppression measure and that as a result Sweden is not in a “lockdown” despite having a 65% reduction in commuter traffic, but this is what caused new cases in both countries to change.

It’s not a “lockdown” if it’s voluntary. I’m pretty sure this basic truth was pointed out to you previously, so I really don’t know why you still are pretending not to have grasped it. It’s absolutely fundamental, so if you are going to talk about these issues you need o try to come to terms with it.

11821 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Mark, -9, #229 of 623 🔗

What total guff. Being asked to work-from-home, not to visit elderly relatives and not to go outside if you are over 70 is a curtailment of freedom, suppression measures and a lockdown of behaviour.

Plus, if you bothered to actually check what is going on in Sweden (rather than relying on recieved wisdom that it is some utopia) you’d be aware that their government asked its citizens to do exactly this at the same time as ours did…
https://www.thelocal.se/20200316/stockholmers-urged-to-work-from-home-as-swedens-coronavirus-deaths-rise
… they even initially tried to enforce it, but when they realised measured given their slower rate of case growth they had manged to plateau cases they backed off and started selling trying to sell it as the original idea…

All that was pointed out to me before was that Toby (like nobody else other than Ferguson in his original paper) likes to refer to “working-from-home” as “social distancing”. Everyone I deal with considers this to mean mitigation measures, like staying 2 meters apart. Ferguson in his original paper does refer to it as this, but Toby is pretty much the only other person.

Perhaps he just likes the ambiguity of being able to say that Sweden is “only social distancing” leading to people like you thinking it is not in lockdown… but, people not being able to actually call him on it…

11834 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 12, #230 of 623 🔗

Remarkable! Are you really claiming not to understand the difference between the government ordering people to do something, with direct legal compulsion backed by police enforcement, and the government asking them to do it?

And before you shoot off down another irrelevant rabbit hole, no the fact that the Swedish government said they might make some measures compulsory if enough people didn’t follow the advice does not constitute compulsion.

You seem unable to prevent yourself sliding off into separate terminological issues concerning mitigation, suppression and distancing, which are utterly irrelevant to the point under discussion.

Get a grip, man!

11859 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Mark, #231 of 623 🔗

I made no claim the measures in both countries are the same.
I simply refuted your assertion that because it is voluntary it is not a lockdown.

Everything else is your histrionics. I’m not sure why, you seem to have some beef with me, and a lack of desire to maturely debate the data I’ve presented.

I don’t like the lockdown.

Why do you view me as the enemy?

11979 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 2, #232 of 623 🔗

You seem to be hypersensitive to disagreement which you seem to interpret as insult and respond quickly with personal abuse (see your exchange with PFD below – and I recall previous similar cases when you were posting here a while back).

In this particular case you initiated the exchange with a terminological dispute. To me (and evidently to Toby to judge from your original criticism above), “lockdown” means enforced measures and does not have wider application to voluntary measures. You seem determined to use it differently, so as to require a distinction between coercive lockdown and voluntary lockdown. To me that is a bit silly, but it’s all just language. But it does divert from the importart point that for many the biggest issue in the whole lockdown debate is the fact that it is coercively imposed.

What’s more your approach gives lockdown supporters the opportunity to argue that “Sweden also locked down”, which is effectively what you were saying. Why would you do such an evidently counterproductive thing, if you actually are as you claim opposed to lockdown?

Why not just recognise the obvious fact that when Toby says that Sweden did not lockdown he means (in your implicitly preferred usage) it didn’t coercively lockdown?

And yes, I could have just ignored it, but it was an argumentative provocation on your part and wholly unnecessary. You provoked, and you got a response. Don’t be all surprised by it.

12117 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Mark, #233 of 623 🔗

The wikipedia definition of “lockdown” makes no reference to it being enforced, simply that it is equivalent to a “stay-at-home” order.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown

I’m sorry that you feel so imposed on by the state.

The strength of suppression measures needed in a population is not digital, it is very analogue. Pushing beyond natural voluntary levels of compliance might be needed in some settings, but I agree most places where they have happened in the world are excessive, and dangerous, and many could have followed the Swedish model, read my reply to BobT below, I explain in much more detail…

I don’t like the duplicity in Toby’s use of the word. It allows for people who don’t understand what he means to think they have no government urged restriction to liberty, and most people I talk to think this. Quite a lot of people on this site do too.

PFD was being provocational, he made no attempt to consider the analysis.

When this site first started the debates (of which I was a large part) were more measured reasoned and less of a cabal.

It has now become a religion, with closed minds.

11835 ▶▶▶▶ PFD, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 8, #234 of 623 🔗

There are significant differences in the enforced lockdown in the UK and the socially responsible lockdown in Sweden. Schools and colleges for children and young adults up to age 16 are running. Bars, restaurants, services (hairdressers, gyms etc.), shops are open in Sweden. They don’t have a population terrified by a government peddling fear at every opportunity and as a result a long term problem in encouraging people out of a ‘lockdown’ mentality and back to work. Witness the difficulty in opening our own schools, albeit in a very limited manner.

However, the question of whether these mitigation measures has an effect on the infection and subsequent fatality rates is not proven by your post hoc ergo propter hoc analysis above.

11856 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to PFD, -2, #235 of 623 🔗

I make no statement about deaths. I made one about new hospital measured cases, and I believe the need to demonstrate a causal correlation between the latter and former I hope you agree that is not needed.

As to the flaws in my analysis? I get that you “feel” I haven’t proved something, but I’m going to need more than that.

As to your assertion, do you really only consider that Sweden has “mitigation” measures in place?

… because as per Ferguson’s report on the 16th of March he classes measures like; working from home, staying indoors if you are over 70, and not visiting care homes (all of which the Swedish government have urged their citizens to comply with)… as suppression measures and ones implemented in a lockdown strategy. In fact he discusses on page 16 the complexities of their implmentation, and makes no assumption they will be enforced by law, in fact his model assumes a 75% maximum compliance with any measures.

So as per his definition, they are in lockdown.

I’m not claiming they are in anything other than their reality. They are doing all these things and have seen 65% reductions in commuter movement.

Their life has NOT gone on as normal.

They have 384 deaths/1m which on a global average serology IFR of 0.5% they are at 7.7% spread, given their new case rate looks like it has likely plateaued this means they might see double the deaths if current suppression measures hold. So they are heading to a suppressed herd immunity ceiling of about 15%.

The UK is at 531, so 10.6% spread, heading likely to a similar suppressed ceiling.

I really don’t see them as being any further ahead or in any better place.

We have lifted measures towards them. IF (big if) we can get TTT in place by the start of June, given we have 2/5 per capita the daily new cases we stand a much better chance of getting a South Korean grade r0 suppression strategy in place, which might see us out of suppression measures faster than Sweden…

… AND I really want out of lockdown asap.

11775 ▶▶ PFD, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 13, #236 of 623 🔗

Simon Nicholl’s says:

“As your author’s plot shows deaths plateau from the 10th, but did not start dropping till the 13th, which would mean even by their plot it was people’s behaviour from the 21st of March that made them start to fall not just plateau like in Sweden.

Given by the 21st tube travel was at 15%, THIS was the cause of the peak. After all you can only have a peak when things start to drop”

You are suggesting a drop off in tube and other travelling by the 21st March was the cause of the peak in death rates in London and by inference if there was not the change in behaviour and subsequent lockdown the death rate would have continued higher. There is just mere supposition on your part with no supporting data, theory or model for it.

On the other hand, if one takes a standard SIR model of infection, one that is well described by the Gompertz function, then the first differential of this function will describe the infection rate, and after a time delay the subsequent death rates. Plotting the log of cumulative deaths as a function of time shows the infection in the UK (certainly from the 3rd March onwards), and for every other country to follow the standard Gompertz function. The gradient of this plot decreases monotonically as a function of time. There is no break, or change of slope in this latter plot that correlates with either the transport usage change or the date of the lockdown. That such a plot is characteristic of the infection everywhere strongly suggests that the infection is following a natural path irrespective of measures taken by different countries to try and control it.

11776 ▶▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to PFD, 2, #237 of 623 🔗

Touche. The point made by Prof Ben-Israel too.

11784 ▶▶▶ PFD, replying to PFD, 7, #238 of 623 🔗

Further, it suggests that the infection was widely spread amongst the population prior to mid-March. This is consistent with the Oxford model and the accumulating data to suggest that the virus was in Western Europe either in, or before December 2019.

11852 ▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to PFD, #239 of 623 🔗

What does? Links please.

11837 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to PFD, -5, #240 of 623 🔗

Ummm… the data, analysis and model in the article that I reference would be… ?

Wow, if it is a “log” plot it must mean it is so amazing and right… what big words you know.

… so bascially what you’re trying to say is if you plot deaths in “all countries” (I’m going to assume you mean some big list rather than actually all) they show that deaths have peaked.

Big wow.

All western countries are in suppression measures heading to suppressed herd immunity ceilings. That is all you are really saying and not in any contention.

I’m talking about relative rates of change between different levels of suppression. comment image

Please explain to me why UK for both deaths and cases has seen much faster declines whereas Sweden has plateaued in both?

I can do log versions of these plots, or even plot you the 1st derivative if it really makes you feel better… but, it really won’t change what’s staring me in the face…

11843 ▶▶▶▶ PFD, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 6, #241 of 623 🔗

I think you need to grow up a little Mr Nicholls and try not to be so insulting. I’ve said all I’m going to say here and will not debate with someone so arrogant and uncivil.

11851 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to PFD, -1, #242 of 623 🔗

I felt patronised. You seemed to be trying to bamboozle me with words, providing no actual data or references to studies, and accusing me of proving no evidence when I’d just provided lots. None of which you directly engaged with or questioned.

11860 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #243 of 623 🔗

“proving” should be “providing”

11850 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 3, #244 of 623 🔗

Wow, if it is a “log” plot it must mean it is so amazing and right… what big words you know.

Do you have some past history with PFD, or was this just gratuitous insult? Certainly there’s nothing in his previous post to you that could suggest it could be regarded as tit for tat, or even provoked at all.

His response seems appropriate. Do you feel you achieved anything by the exchange?

11931 ▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #245 of 623 🔗

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1263497666144669696/photo/1
This is the ICL calculation for Sweden doing the social distancing semilockdown as described
Completely rubbish prediction of deaths compared to reality.

11999 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to swedenborg, -1, #246 of 623 🔗

So we are still misquoting Ferguson and comparing his “do nothing” plot to a suppression reality when his suppression prediction line was 10 times lower and pretty much matches what is happening in Sweden.

I see you have not moved on since we last spoke.

12021 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #247 of 623 🔗

The head of the Graph
Number of deaths in Sweden with a modified version of the ICL model calibrated with Swedish data in a scenario that conservatively models what has actually been done through voluntary social distancing according to Google mobile data(all schools open except high school and universities, work place transmission reduced 25%,community transmission reduced by 40%)

12111 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to swedenborg, #248 of 623 🔗

So it is someone elses run of the Microsoft dervied code for Ferguson’s model not his? Done likely to make it look as bad as possible? Especially when moovit data has commuter disruption in Stockholm and the surrounding area at 65% not 25%…

… okay, yeah seems an entirely fair and fruitful attack.

How do you account for his UK March 16th paper projecting 550k deaths do nothing, but only 48k deaths with these measure we have in place?

For me unless he calibrates and runs the model (and on his UnHerd interview he makes reference to his run for Sweden looking like what they actually have), I don’t see this as a fair or useful attack on NF, or to what end?

11978 ▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to PFD, #249 of 623 🔗

Excellent comment. Is there a paper somewhere that sets out this case fully and rigorously?

12015 ▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Will Jones, #250 of 623 🔗

From a tweet from the person doing this taking into account social distancing done
“It took 65 hours to run this simulation on my laptop, but fortunately this version of the model behaves quasi-deterministically, so I don’t really need to do several runs. I’ll write something to explain what I did exactly and put the code on GitHub when I have more time.”

12025 ▶▶▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to swedenborg, #251 of 623 🔗

Thanks. It’s so frustrating that there is nothing published on this when surely right now little is more important than investigating how much difference social distancing really makes to infections. Come on researchers, step up!

12113 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Will Jones, #252 of 623 🔗

… but, we have all the data from live experient that has been running in both countries for the last 6 weeks?

11829 ▶▶ guy153, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 3, #253 of 623 🔗

I read your post on your blog, and you made a good point about the different delays between hospital admission and death reporting in the UK vs Sweden.

But the stuff about traffic contains a few assumptions. First, we don’t even know if the reduction in commuter traffic (or anything it’s correlated with) had any effect at all on hospital cases in either country.

Second, your prediction of “43x the new case rate in the UK” seemed to be based on the even bigger assumption that the rate of reduction in hospital cases is proportional to the reduction in commuter traffic, as if viruses were literally being delivered to the hospital every day by commuters. This seems to ignore the dynamics of epidemics. I think if you want to explore that effect you need to run something like a SIR model, estimate the reduction in infection rate caused by reducing commuter traffic, and try to fit the curves from Sweden, and then apply those same model parameters back to the UK.

What’s going on in both cases is that R is dropping as time goes by due to some combination of changes of behaviour and the building of population-level immunity. We aren’t any closer to understanding what that combination is or which changes of behaviour matter more than others.

Your conclusion is far too strong: “I’m not going to look at the data and tell you a lie, the 15% extra reduction in movement caused by the lockdown must have tipped the balance, data does not lie, narratives do.”

Why must it have tipped the balance? There’s no evidence of causation in the data.

Toby linked to this report yesterday:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-long-term-care-facilities-surveillance-guidance.pdf

It says that 50% of Sweden’s deaths are in care homes, and 21% of the UK’s. Of those that remain an unknown number were infections acquired in hospital (NHS seem to be admitting to “up to 20% in some areas” according to the Guardian). I don’t think the viruses circulating in these care homes are much affected by the commuter traffic or lack of it outside.

11847 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to guy153, -2, #254 of 623 🔗

No the 43x point not related to commuters at all??

Between 19thFeb-13thMar (before any measure took effect in either country) the UK had an average daily growth in new hospital tested cases of 23.6% a day (Sweden 14.6%) 60% more.

This comes from the underlying r0 differences caused by likely density, etc.

Had we matched Sweden’s lockdown measures what would have happened to the higher growth?

I mention that it would have meant 43x the cases we had at peak. I don’t believe that at all, there is no evidence that the same rate of difference would persist, BUT I also think it is foolish to suggest it would evaporate. Which is why I show a model of only a 1/3 of it remaining. comment image
.. and we would have 2.5x the nee hospital cases at our peak and 7.5x what we have now.

It is a mathematical inequality for me that just does not work…

r0_SEpre x 1.6 = r0_UKpre
so…
r0_SEpost <= r0_UKpost_on_same_measures

… just can't see any argument it would be the other way round. Which would mean we would now be much further away from TTT and our way out of Groundhog day.

As to Sweden's care home deaths, sure I've believed for some time that their care home problems explain their deaths peak April 24th, but they have plateaued since. Plus, I don't believe the 21% for the UK. We should have had about 21k care home deaths weeks 11-19 inclusive, we've had 42k, only 9.9k Covid and 11.3k totally unexplained at a time when testing in care homes was non-existent… I just don't buy it.

11951 ▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #255 of 623 🔗

Yes that 20% to get the 43x was completely arbitrary– as if you divided by 3 just to make it look more plausible!

“r0_SEpre x 1.6 = r0_UKpre
so…
r0_SEpost <= r0_UKpost_on_same_measures"

This might be approaching reasonable if R varied linearly with time. But it's actually a sigmoid function, dropping like a stone in the middle of the epidemic. Small changes in timing will totally eclipse multiples of 1.6. It's a very tenuous connection to make and a very hard signal to try to find in the noise.

Another point about commuters– they're in an age group that has almost no deaths. So unless every day is bring-your-gran-to-work day I would expect commuter traffic to be almost completely unrelated to the graph of deaths.

12109 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to guy153, 1, #256 of 623 🔗

The article is pretty clear that losing all of the 60% extra growth we had over Sweden seems as crazy as assuming we would keep all 60%.

I provide a balanced and realistic projection of what keeping just a 1/3 at 20% would look like, and that is 2.5x the peak and 7.5x what we have now.

I’m a signal researcher. For sure rE is a reverse sigmoid function, but “drops off” is an aggressive description for a function whose mid point gradient in this case depends in the r0… comment image ?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=a345dd5384fbf8dd7612e8548b6499c501f44114
… as in under suppression measures it will be more like the first than the first.

Given both countries are in suppression measures the rate of progress through this plot is much slower than you think. Look at their plot of their new cases. In the 6 weeks since the peak their rE has gone from say 1.05 to like 0.95 tops, bascially right in the middle of the function output. but not really moved very much. I’d say pretty much constant.

Please do let me know if I’ve misinterpreted.

As to your point about commuters. All health care workers making visits to the 420k carehomes residents, 1.1m care-in-the-community patients, and now the 1.5m vulnerable (although there will be massive overlap with the 1.1m) do so by commuting, and given 50% of all excess mortality has been in these settings the connection seems pretty obvious to me.

12133 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #257 of 623 🔗

So of the 60% reduction in commuting how much of that do you estimate to be care home workers? And how is that fraction getting to work? Are they using teleporters perhaps?

11855 ▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to guy153, #258 of 623 🔗

Sorry – I hit the wrong thumb – it should have been the up one! I agree with your last comments – trying to tie everything in to commuter traffic or tube travel is to ignore the multitude of other unknown factors at play.

11861 ▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Old fred, #259 of 623 🔗

I agree which is why trying to discern a tipping point is fools errand. Best thing to do is as I have done, look at the long term average outcome.

1) In the 4 weeks before we had sustained 60% greater growth.
2) Since the peak we have held in place 80% lockdown, they have held 65%.
3) The cumulative effect of 6 weeks of these measures is they are still at the same level of daily new cases, we have dropped to 2/5.

I just can’t look at this data as an analyst and not think that the 80% vs 65% was a deciding factor… it is possible to think something is a bad thing, but see it might have been an unavoidable necessary evil.

Personally I’m livid that we have not made more progress on TTT, this is the only way forward from here as it will mean we can “lockdown” or quarantine a tiny fraction of the population and get everyone back out to work and the pub.

11956 ▶▶▶▶▶ guy153, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 2, #260 of 623 🔗

It’s more reliable to look at peaks than it is at slopes on the way up to them. TTT in the UK is never going to work, and it’s far too late for there to be any point in it anyway. But by all means install the app when it comes out if you want. I won’t be.

12044 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to guy153, 1, #261 of 623 🔗

nor me!

12093 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to guy153, -2, #262 of 623 🔗

Well this puts you in a very lonely camp at odds with all statisticians who view larger samples to have tighter confidence intervals…

11842 ▶▶ Will Jones, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 2, #263 of 623 🔗

You need to look at more than two countries. I looked at 7 cities and found no correlation between adoption of social distancing and the slow down of infection. See https://conservativewoman.co.uk/social-distancing-the-case-against/ . I don’t know why you say Sweden has not turned the tide. Deaths in Stockholm at least are back in the normal range.

11866 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Will Jones, #264 of 623 🔗

Hospital cases, not deaths. Best proxy after deaths for spread. Cases more generally very bad as they are skewed by strategy, but hospital recorded cases to deaths in 1st world countries are pretty consistent. About 15% mortality rate and they represent about 2.5% of all cases. Essentially people tend to choose to go to hospital at similar symptom levels.

I’m on the hunt to expand sources for this isolated data like the UK provide with their separated pillar 1 test numbers.

I don’t see any actual numbers in your article Will? What do you mean by “correlation”?

The best way to assess the relative impact of measures is to look at long term averages before and after. We are far enough away from the peak to be able to do that now. comment image

I don’t see what you mean about Swedish deaths. Apart from there care home peak at the beginning they seem to have plateaued, not dropped since the start of May.

Trouble is there aren’t any other countries other than Sweden that have gone for the lockdown light (65% voluntary) so it is hard to add to the comparison. All other profiles look like the UKs (e.g. France, Spain, Italy, etc) so I’m not sure what it would buy us.

All eyes on Brazil.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

11888 ▶▶▶▶ BobT, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 9, #265 of 623 🔗

Simon,
Appreciate an alternative view but unfortunately I cannot agree with you. I do think that you are trying to make assumptions to justify your own point of view from your perception of the trending. No matter which way you look at your chart above, Swedish deaths per million throughout the period have been way less than UK and a week ago they were only equal at 7 per 1m. Extrapolating your trend into the future based on what we have so far is disingenuous. As of today, according to the UK ONS, Oxford CEBM and Euromomo, the virus has run its course so we can look forward in the next couple of weeks to the deaths per million from all causes to be in the normal range.

There is no doubt that Covid-19 is a very unpleasant disease but the only thing that is really important is whether it kills you or not so your argument that hospital admissions are a better metric to follow does not fly.

My reason for being a lockdown sceptic is nothing to do with the actual death toll but more whether it has been a proportionate response to the effects of this virus. There have been ~ 35,000 deaths associated with the virus in the UK or about 0.05% of the population therefore 99.95% of the population have not died from this virus yet these persons are paying the price. My question is, even if the death toll had been 10X at 350,000 or 0.5% of the population would this lockdown which has put the livelihoods, education and mental health of the remaining 99.5% of the younger people in our society in jeapordy be proportionate. I do not think so.

Thats just in the UK. I have written before about the economy where I live which has been broken by decisions made by western governments. No free money or furlough schemes here, just poverty.

Globally, the predicted effects of the western world’s panic lockdowns are unthinkable. There are predictions of half the workforce losing their livelihood from the ILO, predictions by the UN of 1 Billion extra people on planet earth being placed in extreme poverty. Thats 28,000 extra people in extreme poverty for every one person who succumbed to this nasty virus in the UK. Is that proportionate? Are we trading the life of 1 older person for many thosand of others we cannot see?

I have posted before about human rights violations where central american governments have used the epidemic as an excuse to deprive their people of their liberties, intimidate and humiliate them. We have opened a global ‘can of worms’ by our narrow minded media driven overreaction.

Perhaps in the same way that the predictive models which caused the lockdowns were exaggerated, the ILO and UN’s predictions mentioned above could be exaggerated. I hope so.

Nevertheless, when the data arrives in some months or years time, I want you to plot on your charts the collateral deaths. You can take it from me that you will have to expand the ‘y’ axis by some orders of magnitude to make it fit.

12064 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to BobT, #266 of 623 🔗

You don’t seem to be curious as to why Swedish deaths plateaued and ours shot up more with stronger measures? Or, that the profile since has been different?

Does this not tell you that both countries had different growth rates? I really don’t take the read that measures had no effect and the virus was the same all over, which is sort of to me what you are implicitly saying.

I read it that we had much strong viral tranmission (denser population, etc) and struggled to stop transmission. Plus, in that scenario, once you have lots of cases you risk herd immunity overshoot. Taking the pace out of a sudden and uncontrolled spike upwards will have stopped it from ever getting as far as it now might simply because the infection peak can never get as high.

As to your dismisal of cases, these lead to deaths, and when sampled in a stable way they do consistency predict deaths globally. About 10-15% of hospital cases, with about 2.5% of all cases presenting to hospital. Death reporting is actually far less timely than confirmed hospital tested case measures. Sweden’s updating of up to 4 week old daily death totals (which happens every day) is proof of this.

You get me all wrong. I’m clearly too analogue for the digital group now occupying this site, there was more open minded debate initially… I don’t think 80% enforced (although I think it is better to describe them as state financed because it helps understand where they can work) lockdowns have been needed in most places that have rushed to follow the herd of the west.

I agree a dangerous one size fits all menatality has taken over the world. I’d say strong mitigation measures (2m, spacing out footfall in shops, bars, restaurants, etc) was sensible everywhere, but lockdown needed to be done as late as possible and only in bigger cities driven by individual sampling of rE and only in countries that had the capacity to state fund furloughing.

3rd world countries don’t have the tax base to pay for it and as a result the deaths and damage (I agree) is going to far outweight the benefit. I’m not even sure about 2nd world countires, in the favelas of Rio or slums of Mumbai. Brazil has all my eyes at the moment… mainly also to see if a country that is struggling to sustain a stricter lockdown with favelas, etc has a really high spike, their case curve is certainly remaining dangerously exponential at the moment.

Even in 1st world countries they weren’t nuance enough, the US particularly, most states are less dense the Sweden, Utah, Nevada, Montana, etc all didn’t need them and even if they did went too early. Even bigger states like California went too early all terrified of what was happening in NY. They needed to wait for the virus to bite enough to know what their unique rE response was, then implement more sensible measures, likely many being able to follow the Swedish model due to being less dense.

I don’t think your picturing the dynamic of the capacity of a viral infection to run away with itself in densely packed parts of the real world (not in a model) for your dismissive classification of how models were trying to represent the potential for this.

I entirely agree lockdowns have limited capacity for good, but this does not necessarily mean everywhere and in all circumstances. In the big cities, London, NY, Milan, Paris, Birmingham, Glasgow, Manchester, we needed furloughed support and the brakes applying in March.

11891 ▶▶▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #267 of 623 🔗

Simon, if you weren’t aware you check the data for Sweden here:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Avlidna/dag is daily deaths when they happened and not when reported which is what we see on worldometer. Looks like Swedens daily deaths have been <40 for over a week now.

12071 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Nobody2020, #268 of 623 🔗

I’m on this site daily scrapping data.

You can’t use the last 2-3 weeks of data in any reliable way for deaths… just read this explanation on my blog…
https://medium.com/pragmapolitic/the-ruse-of-swedish-death-data-bd29a5b9b0ea

A 7 day rolling average of the daily delta does introduce a 7 day lag, but as I show in this article it is a much better read of the data coming out of Sweden… mainly in that it makes the lags and delays consistent with other 1st world countries, so their data becomes much more comparable.

11894 ▶▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #269 of 623 🔗

Swedish death data all causes can be found here https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/sverige-i-siffror/manniskorna-i-sverige/doda-i-sverige/ . Stockholm is back within the normal range.

Belarus have done even less than Sweden, little voluntary social distancing either and the government discourages it.

New York City provides hospital and death data.

11913 ▶▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Will Jones, #270 of 623 🔗

One of the best data from Sweden in English is this
https://c19.se/en/Sweden
And also very useful is https://www.covibes.org/
which includes 3 days and 14 days predictions

11923 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to swedenborg, #271 of 623 🔗

Thanks. Shame they don’t seem to display daily graphs and data as well as cumulative?

12072 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to swedenborg, #272 of 623 🔗

Thanks, so you have solid source for Sweden that distinguishes hospital confirmed tests from in-community. Like the UK do for pillar 1 and pillar2/3?

I know Sweden is still mainly (90%) testing those that present to hospital like the UK was before it went TTT nuts, but it would be nice to remove this small amount of consistent noise from their numbers.

11895 ▶▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #273 of 623 🔗

Also the Swedish antibody survey shows 7.3% infections in Stockholm in mid April, which is past peak, so the virus has not infected a large proportion of the population.

12073 ▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Will Jones, #274 of 623 🔗

Will it is in a suppress behavioural state, of course this lowers the herd immunity ceiling temporarily – e.g. = 1 – (1/r0). The measured r0 ahead of suppression measures demonstrates that the real herd immunity ceiling when normal behaviour returns will be much higher. Much like the resurgence in seasonal flu between winter and summer. This occurs because the winter r0 is higher than the summer.

12142 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Will Jones, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #275 of 623 🔗

What’s your theory about Belarus?

12412 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Will Jones, #276 of 623 🔗

Interesting, Russia, but even more perfect. On the numbers they’ve found all their cases. 20 deaths/1m and 3630 cases/1m would put them at an CFR of 0.55%. Russia is similar at 20 and 2237, meaning 0.89% CFR. These are pretty close to serology surveys.

Given they are both part of the Union State it seems entirely likely with the help of the FSB they are contact tracing and staying ahead of the game, and by that I mean 10 times more efficiently than Germany and quarantining, aggressively.

… or, the numbers need to be taken with pinch of salt. Belarus’ daily new case numbers just don’t look real, consistently just below 1k for 15 days straight…

… or its the proof we’ve been looking for that infections burns out naturally.

11897 ▶▶▶▶ Tim Bidie, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #277 of 623 🔗

Recording cause of death in Britain has been all over the place since Covid 19 was made a notifiable disease on March 5th (March 19th Covid 19 removed from UK list of high consequence infectious diseases.

Please listen to the following and then tell me that you have any confidence in UK Covid 19 mortality figures:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1013854/3675205-episode-4-dr-john-lee-part-1?client_source=twitter_card&player_type=full_screen

Why do you think the Covid 19 infection figures are reliable?

‘Updating PHE COVID-19 Diagnostic Test Protocols

Summary of the initial results:

1. There is considerable diversity of molecular platforms, reagents, kits and assay performance conditions in PHE and NHS laboratories providing SARS-CoV-2 molecular detection
2. There is evidence of quality assurance difficulties for key reagents due to global supply chain issues
3. Shortages of swabs and transport medium have led to local variations in sampling practice which may impact on assay performance through the introduction of inhibitors into biochemical reactions
4. There is no evidence of viral genetic drift as a basis for altered sensitivity of assay
5. Enzyme performance from external suppliers has degraded compared with original validation performance.’

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Zoki1xUKuY15JmPujZXd-mMjXn0K_2GM/view

You know how hopeless models are if the data is junk, so why persist with your forensic examination when it is quite clear that many of the key numbers, mortality figures and infection figures for Covid 19 in particular, are very unreliable.

You are completely missing the point of this argument. Please listen to Lord Gumption.

The indictment is that lockdown was imposed for political reasons since reliable data was simply not available to make a coherent medical case. All the damage to lives and property may therefore very well have been as a consequence of manoeuvring for political advantage; quite possibly actionable.

11904 ▶▶▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to Tim Bidie, #278 of 623 🔗

I was thinking the same sort of thing last night- micro-analysis of these charts is a waste of time given the poor quality of the data points and the vast number of unknowns. Comparing charts from different countries is equally pointless. These viruses seem to do their own thing and disappear after around 14 to 16 weeks. – maybe more, maybe less Charts for UK HK Flu back in the 60’s are typical and no lockdown then. Out of proportion response by govt is the problem.

Also all this stuff about TTT is window dressing & a waste of time to me- nothing wrong with being a Luddite, I reckon. – after all look where all the fancy computer modelling by Ferguson and his pals has led us

11877 ▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Will Jones, 2, #279 of 623 🔗

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-21st-may/
In the curve of deaths per day in England the peak of death is 8th April. In my mind it looks already more like a Gompertz curve with 2/3rd of deaths will fall after the peak
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Sweden
If you scroll in the Tidsserie: Sjukdomsfall per dag on the right you will reachTidsserie: Avlidna per dag.On this graph you can in Sweden see that the peak is perhaps around 16th April a week later than England. Also this graph gives a suspicion that it will become a Gompertz curve with some imagination
https://c19.se/en/Sweden/Stockholm
In this graph in logarithmic scale you can see that the deaths are starting to decrease in Stockholm
Now to a site that worldwide is plotting the graphs and give predictions
https://www.covibes.org/public/Sweden
In this figure click on graph and on deaths and you can see the extrapolated deaths for June and the final result will be a typical Gompertz curve with approx. 21st April as the peak of death
https://www.covibes.org/public/UK
In this figure click on graph and on deaths and you can see the extrapolated deaths for June and the final result will be a typical Gompertz curve with approx. 10th April as the peak of death
So both UK and Sweden is following the same curve of deaths with a week apart

12085 ▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to swedenborg, 1, #280 of 623 🔗

You can’t use arcgis data directly, it shows a false peak… comment image
.. the last 2-3 weeks are always increasingly more partial data.

The UK ONS data only goes up to 8th of May, and the ONS will not revise it up, but week 20 for up to the 15th when published will contain revised deaths for weeks before the 8th if need be.

The way you are trying to compare the data is apples and oranges. Doing as I have done, using deltas a 7 day rolling average puts the data into a comparable form, and really only in as much as looking at their own trend, I make no comparative judgements between them, I simply talk about their own relative change (e.g. plateaued, going up, going down).

In my piece I look at new hospital cases to get a relative growth before as they do not contain these massive reporting lags, and hospital cases are a very good indicator of spread, so are much more comparable.

12146 ▶▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #281 of 623 🔗

But the https://www.covibes.org/public/Sweden
gives you a rolling average daily death with a peak 21st April instead of the more crude data on FoH

12186 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to swedenborg, #282 of 623 🔗

Yeah, it’s good, but it is mostly the same as what I do?

Except what is missing is turning it into per 1m of the population to get it onto a more comparable footing. Plus, I don’t think the projection forward helps.

Not sure what you’re disagreement with my analysis is though? Our fall off in deaths and more strongly new cases has been much sharper.

11898 ▶▶ karate56, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 9, #284 of 623 🔗

What on earth do you come on this site for? You’re writing reams of text no one gives shit about, whether you have a point of not. Whatever way you present your mass ramblings, this lockdown is nothing other than an unmitigated disaster, for all generations, due to its effects on all aspects of life. By this I’m excluding the disease itself. We have paralysed an entire nation with irrational fear, destroyed an economy, destroyed generations of childrens and young peoples futures, destroyed countless livelihoods and introduced a police state, destroyed hospitality and aviation. We’ve also shown how not to govern, by submitting entirely our political decisions to unelected scientists and academics. We have also by default given any political opponent of the government more ammunition they can ever wish for.
Life has become utter shit in weeks and will get worse. So I don’t give a fuck about your plots or your rationale of them.
If you think this so called pandemic has been handled well, on here you’re a minority. The site is called Lockdown Sceptics, its in the name. If your not a sceptic, get a job with government, or take advantage of their economy crippling furlough schemes and stay home and obey our neo fascist leaders, but please, spare us your shit, its boring as fuck.

11926 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to karate56, #285 of 623 🔗

Thanks for this, my thoughts exactly.

11957 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to karate56, #286 of 623 🔗

Agree. Sums up well the mess we are in.

12091 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to karate56, 1, #287 of 623 🔗

Trying to make the arguments credible so we might actually be listened to by a broader community.

Read my reply to BobT above, there are so many bad things about lockdowns that we should be discussing and finding concrete evidence on to share with the people outside this site. So many instances globally where they are a bad idea, but all we do is generate guff about places where they were clearly needed (NY, London, Milan, etc) and spend no time trying build sound arguments for why we should be advising Rio or Mumbai NOT to follow.

Most states in the US didn’t need lockdowns, rural areas certainly didn’t, most cities in countries that can’t sustain furlough schemes through taxation will probably do more damage than good, I’d imagine most towns didn’t either. Commuters on 1st wold tube systems, hell yeah.

Why does the answer have to be so digital?

12167 ▶▶▶▶ Tim Bidie, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), 1, #288 of 623 🔗

No answers based around models, numbers, data, carry any weight whatsoever.

Regarding London:

The total number of reported deaths in London hospitals of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 is now 5,854. The total number of deaths where COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 146.

https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london

Regarding Britain:

‘In an emergency period of the COVID-19 pandemic there is a relaxation of previous
legislation concerning completion of the medical certificate cause of death (MCCD) by
medical practitioners’

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

‘Population 17,425,445 adults. Time period 1st Feb 2020 to 25th April 2020. Primary outcome Death in hospital among people with confirmed COVID-19.’

‘Results There were 5683 deaths attributed to COVID-19.’

‘In summary after full adjustment, death from COVID-19 was strongly associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.99, 95%CI 1.88-2.10); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); uncontrolled diabetes (HR 2.36 95% CI 2.18-2.56); severe asthma (HR 1.25 CI 1.08-1.44); and various other prior medical conditions. Compared to people with ethnicity recorded as white, black people were at higher risk of death, with only partial attenuation in hazard ratios from the fully adjusted model (age-sex adjusted HR 2.17 95% CI 1.84-2.57; fully adjusted HR 1.71 95% CI 1.44-2.02); with similar findings for Asian people (age-sex adjusted HR 1.95 95% CI 1.73-2.18; fully adjusted HR 1.62 95% CI 1.43-1.82).’

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1

That is 5683 Covid 19 deaths in England out of a cumulative total of all cause mortality for the same period of circa 180,000 in England and Wales.

12254 ▶▶▶ ianp, replying to karate56, -1, #289 of 623 🔗

Boom…That’s right. In other words, fuck off and take your graphs with you. They all spectacularly miss the point. 0.05 % compared to 0.07% or R0.8 compared to R0.9 or whatever… all complete small, statistically inconsequential, cheese.

12367 ▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Simon Nicholls (sinichol), #290 of 623 🔗

What’s your view on the latest JP Morgan report on the effectiveness of lockdowns? Looks like the guy who did it does a similar job to you. Be interesting to get your take on it.

12466 ▶▶▶ Simon Nicholls (sinichol), replying to Nobody2020, #291 of 623 🔗

It looks like classic bank “try to look competent” client marketing material.

If only it showed what it claimed to show. It just shows a bunch of places have kept modified behaviour after a shock, and infection remains suppressed.

Most US states locked down too early, and likely most of them never needed to in the first place. They could have got by fine with mitigation measures and possibly at worst following Sweden.

Let’s pick the worst for r0 ND (North Dakota), has a population density 1/6 that of Sweden, the capital Bismarck has a population of 73k. I mean what the hell were they locking down for? 18 of the US states are less dense than Sweden.

Trump need to put mitigation measures in place (2m, hand washing, quarantine if sick) then give states discretion to control their own lockdown timing, then get centralised supply chains sorted, and put in place consistent r0 monitoring programs. The US at most needed dense big city lockdowns – e.g. NY, LA, Miami, Boston, etc – but, only if and when they needed them.

NY and New Jersey are 4x denser than most other US cities, 22k/sqr-km. LA is 9k, but then most other places are like 5k ish like Stockholm.

Hindsight is great though.

I think the thing we all forget here is that there is random chance involved here, the virus can just not grab hold of a population.

11755 Barney McGrew, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #292 of 623 🔗

From the Daily Mail:

Matt Hancock hints coronavirus immunisations could be made COMPULSORY if UK finds a vaccine

An effective vaccination for the disease is yet to be developed anywhere in the world but Mr Hancock said if one is he would hope that ‘everybody would have the vaccine’.

But asked directly if getting the jab could be made mandatory, Mr Hancock said the question was ‘not one that we have addressed yet’.

The UK’s coronavirus testing tsar, Professor John Newton, then went further as he confirmed requiring people to get vaccinated is an option available to the Government. ”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8345117/Matt-Hancock-hints-coronavirus-immunisations-COMPULSORY-UK-finds-vaccine.html

11758 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Barney McGrew, 24, #293 of 623 🔗

That’s civil resistance time even for someone like me who’s basically just agnostic on the vaccine stuff generally. Taking a rushed out vaccine for a non-threatening disease is simply irrational. Forcing people to do it is flat out evil.

11761 ▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Mark, #294 of 623 🔗

Unless it’s a placebo…

11768 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #295 of 623 🔗

Wouldn’t change anything imo. Apart from anything else it would have to be kept secret that it was a placebo.

(Iirc, there has been research suggesting, remarkably, that people respond to a placebo even if they know it’s just a placebo (!), but they’d be laughed out of town if they openly suggested spending billions on a mass placebo injection program. And I doubt it would apply to a vaccination anyway.)

11760 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Barney McGrew, 18, #296 of 623 🔗

Over my dead body. I’ll burn things and Handjob’s house will be first.

11763 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Farinances, 7, #297 of 623 🔗

Usually these kinds of trial balloons are just floated up to either test the response or prepare the ground for a “compromise measure. In this case that would probably be rolling it out on a “voluntary” basis but with heavy “nudging” policies designed to make it costly and inconvenient not to knuckle under.

11796 ▶▶▶▶ JohnB, replying to Mark, 2, #298 of 623 🔗

To borrow from US of A 2nd amendment supporters – once you compromise on what you already have (no mandatory medication, in this case), you lose.

11819 ▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to JohnB, #299 of 623 🔗

Yep. Applies to First Amendment issues, as well.

11765 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Barney McGrew, 14, #300 of 623 🔗

Absolutely not. I would never have a vaccination which had been rushed out and not tested properly over a number of years. I have a very healthy body and I’d like to keep it that way. One sniff of a mandatory vaccination and I will leave this country immediately, by whatever means.

11792 ▶▶▶ Adrian, replying to CarrieAH, 7, #301 of 623 🔗

The flu vaccine has never actually worked, there never was a vaccine for the common cold, also named a coronavirus, there never has been a vaccine for AIDS despite 30 years of research. What makes people believe that if this is indeed a “new” virus there will be a vaccine in less than 6 months? Besides, how exactly is a vaccine developed for a virus that was never isolated (I haven’t been able to find anything in the specific literature despite being a 30 years + PhD in the field)

12090 ▶▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Adrian, #302 of 623 🔗

All your questions would be answered if it was a placebo – or extremely weak. And testing and investigating the vaccine and then publicising the results could be made a criminal offence, or suppressed because of ‘misinformation’, or that it would be ‘dangerous’ to spread rumours that stopped people from believing it was doing its job.

I’m just guessing what they might do in an emergency. Seen through the cock-up prism, a vaccine ready in a few months would solve a hell of a lot of headaches for them, but it would have to be a placebo to avoid safety issues. And ’emergency powers’ could easily allow them to suppress all testing of the vaccine and the publishing of results. D Notice, 90-year rule, etc.

11769 ▶▶ A13, replying to Barney McGrew, 8, #303 of 623 🔗

This clown has said many things in the last couple of months that were not true and he had to back down. I wouldn’t worry too much about what’s coming out from his brainless head.

11772 ▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Barney McGrew, 11, #304 of 623 🔗

Chris Whitty immediately stepped in with the facts of the matter. There are 2 ways to use a vaccine.

1. To give it to everyone with the view to creating wholesale immunity and possibly eradicating the virus
2. To specifically protect high risk groups. Those who do not get the vaccine will not be protected but as the virus is relatively benign to most people it’s not essential for them to be vaccinated

The latter is what we do for flu every year. Pretty sure I said something along those lines over the last few days.

11782 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Nobody2020, 1, #305 of 623 🔗

Yeah it’s most likely they will create a flu type strain focused vaccine that will need to be remade every year. Tbh I’m not that worried cause I think if they crack it it will take them years

11790 ▶▶ JohnB, replying to Barney McGrew, 2, #306 of 623 🔗

“People confirm that treating ‘Professor John Newton’ the same as a previous tsar in 1917 is an option available to them.

11825 ▶▶ Biker, replying to Barney McGrew, 1, #307 of 623 🔗

they’ll have to hold me down and sedate me before they stick their evil filth into my arm

11884 ▶▶ ianp, replying to Barney McGrew, 3, #308 of 623 🔗

Let’s see if the clappy zombies want to be the guinea pigs…

12192 ▶▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to ianp, #309 of 623 🔗

They will. And they’ll hold hands and sing as it’s done to them.

11933 ▶▶ Victoria, replying to Barney McGrew, 3, #310 of 623 🔗

Judy Mikovits interview:
The first thing to do is to end the 1986 Vaccine Injury Compensation act, which removes all liability.
The second thing is a five-year moratorium on all vaccines until they’re tested safe and that’ll take a lot longer than five years. In those five years,everyone’s going to realize they have natural immunity and you’re going to see these diseases go away.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-05-21-mikovits-adams-and-kalcker-powerful-executive-strategies-president-trump-big-pharma.html

11778 Old fred, 6, #311 of 623 🔗

Every headline in the DM contains the word ‘could’.

11781 spelldispel, replying to spelldispel, 5, #312 of 623 🔗

This maybe a bit out there for many but this article certainly reasonates with me:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/21/brave-new-normal-part-2/

11793 ▶▶ OpenCorona, replying to spelldispel, #313 of 623 🔗

I am down with it.

11810 ▶▶ Mark, replying to spelldispel, 2, #314 of 623 🔗

C.J. Hopkins is definitely one of the good ones imo, even though he’s nominally on the other side of the main political divide from me.

Here he absolutely skewers the shameful imbecility and failure of the vast majority (not all, as witnessed by many good contributors here) of the “fascist” chanting left, who fell for the oldest totalitarian trick in the book – the fear play.

11836 ▶▶▶ spelldispel, replying to Mark, #315 of 623 🔗

Not come across him before to be honest with you. Agree with you regarding the fear play!

11840 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to spelldispel, #316 of 623 🔗

This one he wrote a couple of weeks ago was good as well, also on Off-Guardian:

Virus of Mass Destruction

11789 Hoppy Uniatz, 10, #317 of 623 🔗

I went out today with a mate to visit a building site and as a joke we were both wearing sunglasses and FFP1 sanding masks in the van, we drove past a couple of blokes and you could just tell from their expressions they were going, “look at those two dickheads wearing masks in a van.”

11805 Carausius, replying to Carausius, 36, #318 of 623 🔗

The news on this page about the relative total number of deaths this year compared to others reminded me that last week on the BBC the social affairs correspondent Alison Holt featured a piece about an outraged man who had been ‘cheated’ (his word) by the death of his father at 101 from (or with) COVID-19. This fascinated me for several reasons. He seemed solely focused on what he felt he’d been robbed of rather than the astonishing fact that his father had lived so long. A Stoic philosopher would advise him instead to imagine what it would have been like had he not known his father for so long or even at all (if for example he had been killed in WW2). Setting aside for one moment the cause of death, he seemed only interested in his dissatisfaction, which itself seemed to be symbolic of his own personal battle against reality.

It’s an important point because one of the fundamental problems with how this country has dealt with the virus is an apparent inability to grasp some painful truths about life. Of course the losses are each individual tragedies, but feeling angry and cheated is not going to help any of us deal with those.

My mother died in 2016 at the age of 82. Should I feel ‘cheated’ by that? She was born in Glasgow in 1934. Her chances of living past her sixties were pretty small for someone born there in the mid-30s. I count myself lucky not only that she lived as long as she did but also that she was helped to get that far by the medical services we have since she had a number of underlying conditions. She was fortunate to live long enough that all her grandchildren knew her and a few days before her sudden death she held my first grandchild in her arms. Perhaps I should feel cheated by the NHS and the government for failing to ensure that she lived long enough for her underlying conditions to render her especially susceptible to COVID-19.

I was also fascinated by the item being yet another example of the media’s perpetual obsession with depicting COVID-19 as a uniquely unjust horror. Why has loss from COVID-19 become the sole source of justified anger, and the sole source of grief? The death rate in this country is about 9.4 per 1000 per annum which means very roughly 1725 people die every day anyway, soon to be joined by those people additionally dying due to the National Covid Service not testing for or treating their conditions. For every outraged relative of a COVID-19 victim there are many more grieving people who have lost relatives to other causes of death, whose experience now (like a neighbour’s whose grandmother died a few weeks ago) is to be deprived of the chance of having a proper funeral, and every one of them is ignored by the media.

11807 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Carausius, 18, #319 of 623 🔗

My suspicion generally when I read of these supposedly outraged people, when their claim to feel outrage is as absurd as this one, is that they are people who actually have a political axe to grind and are exploiting their circumstances for this purpose.

11814 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to Mark, 3, #320 of 623 🔗

Also, probably, enjoying their Andy Warhol moment!

11815 ▶▶ Jane in France, replying to Carausius, 14, #321 of 623 🔗

A while ago there was a comment on a Peter Hitchens article by a man who said that his mother, aged 85, had paid into the NHS all her life, but now she had Alzheimer’s, leukemia and some other serious ailment which I’ve forgotten, and if she caught covid she would die. I couldn’t help thinking, at that age, and in that state of health, the common cold would probably finish her off.

11817 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Jane in France, 13, #322 of 623 🔗

A lot of people (including my now deceased mother) have indicated to me that they would far rather be dead before losing their health completely, and especially before losing their marbles. For certain, I would prefer to die before reaching the kind of condition implied by that description.

11890 ▶▶▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Mark, 12, #323 of 623 🔗

Me too Mark. I’ve just come through looking after 4 seniors, all of whom ended up in the same care home but of course still needed me to keep an eye on them and the staff and what happened to them on a daily basis. For 13 years, every day I saw everything that went on and how – even in this most upmarket of care homes – the low slow decline became so dreadful. A bucket load of drugs, all with some pretty awful side effects, keeping them alive. The way they were all dismissed by “our NHS” if they ever had the misfortune to end up in hospital. I don’t want that. The moment my health starts to decline badly, I will find a way of leaving my body. I don’t mean this to sound macabre or even dismiss any grief people are feeling right now through loss of loved ones, but maybe the term we used to use for pneumonia was right – “old people’s friend”. And just maybe Covid is too in many cases. Sorry – I’m feeling very tearful tonight and too emotional, but it’s what I saw and felt.

11988 ▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to CarrieAH, 4, #324 of 623 🔗

I agree with you, Carrie.

As a culture, we seem to have travelled down a dead end road that leads to a desperate determination to prolong life at almost any cost. It’s counterproductive, irrational and hugely damaging, and the attitudes underlying it clearly predisposed us to falling for this disastrous coronavirus panic and lockdown response.

Far healthier imo to view preparing oneself for the inevitable end as being one of the important features of living well, to meet it as calmly and willingly as possible. That is clearly a very difficult thing for us, but so important.

As I like to point out, for all of us, death is never a matter of if. It is always a matter of when and how.

As a parent and as someone who now has no living parents or parents in law, I have come to regard the time order of deaths as being one of the most important things. Ideally, if we can avoid it, no child should pre-decease a parent. And as a parent once your children are adults, you should imo regard further life as a bonus, not as a desperate requirement. And offspring need to come to terms with and accept the inevitable deaths of their parents.

12047 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Mark, 2, #325 of 623 🔗

This is pretty much what Lionel Shriver said in that interview with Brendan O’Neill – its reached a point when people are unused to death and find it unacceptable. I’ve noticed this not only during this crisis but even in the past.

Case in point: A friend and I co-write a blog where we’ve skewered the historical anachronisms and inaccuracies in Downton Abbey. While we were doing research online especially on social media, we noticed how people went ballistic at character deaths to the point that the producers were wary about killing off other characters. As a result the programme in our opinion became stale because characters who should have been written off remained until the very end despite the fact that they were holding the narrative back.

12234 ▶▶▶▶▶ annie, replying to CarrieAH, 2, #326 of 623 🔗

Heartily agree. My father, a former teacher, devoted family man and and lover of sport and travel, ended his life in a locked ward – sorry, wing – of a nursing home surrounded by other dementia sufferers, ghastly wrecks of humanity. I fear such an end ten times worse than I fear death.
As David Starkey says in his marvellous You Tube interview, modern doctors have replaced priests as those offering eternal life. But, whatever you think of offers of ‘eternal life’ in some unknown future state, you can be very sure that eternal life in this world is impossible. It’s the great lie of modern society. A protracted living death is all they can offer.

11822 ▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Carausius, 8, #327 of 623 🔗

I think it’s partly to do with the possibility of having somebody to blame. Most of the time when people die it will be due to natural causes.

COVID-19 has been inflated to unnatural status. Who knows maybe it did come from a lab but regardless of whether it did or not it’s being treated as if nobody should ever die from it. Every death from this virus is apparently an unecessary one because at some point in time it could have been stopped.

Now imagine if we looked at every cause of death like this, we would quickly run out of people to blame.

12238 ▶▶▶▶ annie, replying to spelldispel, #329 of 623 🔗

Unbelievable. Reminds me of how Nazi doctors would put the same cause death (I think it was ‘heart failure’) on every death certificate they issued after murdering a mentally or physically disabled patient.

11885 ▶▶▶ ianp, replying to Nobody2020, 1, #330 of 623 🔗

Spot on. Yes. Claim culture

11813 Mike Smith, replying to Mike Smith, 19, #331 of 623 🔗

To my mind if we clap on Thursdays it doesn’t just mean that that we are applauding our front-line troops in the fight against the virus. It means that we support everything that is being done in that fight, including the lockdown. But the lockdown is the most serious thing to hit my country in my lifetime. And we’re doing it to ourselves.
It’s as if Corbyn won the election and I’m being expected to celebrate. I don’t think so.

11827 ▶▶ Nobody2020, replying to Mike Smith, 17, #332 of 623 🔗

If our leaders hadn’t declared an imaginary war on this virus the NHS staff would just have been going about their normal duties of looking after and trying to save people. In fact everybody doing their jobs would just be doing their jobs as normal.

The whole situation is a fraud. The governments of the world have locked people up, destroyed businesses and wrecked economies then appointed themselves saviours of the very thing they created.

Put me on furlough and I will forget that you were the one who took my job in the first place…

11841 ▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to Mike Smith, 25, #333 of 623 🔗

Most NHS staff are nowhere near a Covid ward. It’s a bit like WW2 where all the French claimed to have been in the Resistance – after the Nazis had been defeated, of course. Frankly, the NHS as an institution deserves condemnation, not applause.

11889 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Mike Smith, 7, #334 of 623 🔗

Maybe we should start clapping for ourselves, for being strong enough to put up with all this nonsense and fight back!

11975 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to CarrieAH, 1, #335 of 623 🔗

Already do Carrie.

12201 ▶▶ Barney McGrew, replying to Mike Smith, 5, #336 of 623 🔗

I am very sensitive to any celebration of lockdown culture. I hate the adverts with chirpy people on Skype, the cheery programmes on lockdown cooking, the chat shows where people sit six feet apart and the guides to making a DIY mask. No one should be celebrating this situation.

12214 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Barney McGrew, 5, #337 of 623 🔗

Me too. Just had a frank and forthright exchange of views with someone in my shop who suggested that the ruination of my business was a price worth paying to keep everyone safe (“after all, there are always casulties in a war ..”). Notwithstanding the sheer tactlessness of these comments, she seemed to be another one of those promulgating the idea of the ‘new’ normal. I very much doubt her smug sense of superiority will be much in evidence when her pension is worth bugger all and she has to queue outside the supermarket in the pissing rain. Oh, and just as people will remember those arse-wipe businesses that treated customers like cattle, I’ll remember those customers who were happy to take advantage of my kindness while telling me I am expendablle. Sorry, very, very angry atm.

11826 mantrid, 20, #338 of 623 🔗

this prof Fergusson is as wrong as that prof Fergusson. China locked down only two provinces, not entire country. It didn’t listen to media or public opinion imposing lockdowns and then removing them. It just told its people to get their asses back to work. And now their done with the crisis.

Western world imposed lockdowns to appease hysterical mainstream media and public opinion. Now it can’t get back to normal precisely because of hysterical mainstream media and public opinion.

It’s like foolish kids doing stupid facebook challenge: Xi Jinping jumped into sewer then swiftly crawled out. Trump & Boris though they had balls so they jumped too, broke their legs and now they can’t get out drowning. It would be funny if it weren’t so tragic for everybody.

Covid-19 is not China’s Chernobyl. Lockdown is US & UK Chernobyl.

11828 Nigel Baldwin, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 16, #339 of 623 🔗

Walked along three miles of Eastbourne seafront this afternoon on a mission for a vulnerable person. Was pleased to see the beach/shingle pretty busy, cyclists and skateboarders in healthy numbers, boats on the water and people actually in the sea. I also saw plenty of groups sitting together and no way were most from the same household. no-one on the promenade was observing distancing. I saw one mask on an old guy with a walker who was struggling to walk and one on a twenty something. That’s out of hundreds of people, so I was quite heartened. Even kiosks were open, only marred by the fact that their seating areas were cordoned off. Anyway I thought, hooray, it’s a start. Decided to get a cab back as the old legs were a bit compromised (and I’d had ale). Mini-Cab pulls up and I get into what feels like an armoured tank. It’s a normal saloon with a completely botched perspex panel between front and back seat and driver wearing a mask. My balloon well and truly deflated.

11867 ▶▶ JohnB, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 2, #340 of 623 🔗

Hope you ‘forgot’ the tip, Nigel. 🙂

12315 ▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to JohnB, #341 of 623 🔗

I did

11830 GetaGrip, replying to GetaGrip, 13, #342 of 623 🔗

I’ve been ploughing through the SNP’s Strategy Plan for reducing lockdown.

It’s quite a detailed tome at 46 pages. There are 5 stages to it, basically with 3 week review periods, and progression to the next phase subject to the R remaining below 1 and meeting 6 WHO criteria.

It’s a control freak’s wet dream.

Totting up the likely duration to get to normal-ish, with a quick perusal of what’s going on in other countries, suggests we in Scotland are on course to experience the longest duration of restrictions in our civil liberties of any of the Western democracies.

But hey, that’ll just get them clapping even more.

11838 ▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to GetaGrip, 10, #343 of 623 🔗

Don’t worry. If Boris relaxes restrictions in a week’s time the whole house of cards will collapse around Sturgeon and Leitch. I’d put money on CC Livingstone already having told the poison dwarf that he will not be able to enforce her rules.

11896 ▶▶▶ Mark H, replying to Hammer Onats, 2, #344 of 623 🔗

Who the fuck elected Leitch? The BBC daily espouses his every utterance on the Scotland webpage. Every weekend he’s a guest on “Off the Ball”, a radio once dedicated to the now-dead Scottish football scene. “Leitch says this….Leitch says that…”

Why the fuck are we expected to listen to his “guidance” and “advice”?

Sorry for the swearing, I’m from Scotland.

11910 ▶▶▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to Mark H, 1, #345 of 623 🔗

Leitch is a fucking idiot. The BBC should go back over his utterances and see how many times he’s changed his mind. He’s a Nat apparatchik whose good at talking, that’s all.

11939 ▶▶▶▶▶ Gillian, replying to Hammer Onats, 1, #346 of 623 🔗

Leitch isn’t even a doctor. He’s a dentist who did some rubbishy public health diploma in US and then joined the public health politically-influenced bandwagon in Scotland and rose through the ranks through worshipping Srurgeon, a false god if there ever was one. He was advocating attending rock concerts less than a week before lockdown was imposed. Complete idiot.

11839 Michel, 10, #347 of 623 🔗

In the Netherlands the RIVM (national health institute) claims: “We state that, based on current insights, it has not been demonstrated that aerogenic transmission plays a role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2.”
So…why all the social distancing? Why the 2/1,5/1 meter rule?
I hope they haven’t put it on their facebook page though…as it clearly contradicts the WHO…

11846 Sheltielass, replying to Sheltielass, 39, #348 of 623 🔗

Sorry folks but I’ve just come on here to rant. I actually dont know whether to smack my head off a brick wall or cry. I just can’t believe the rubbish that wee Nicola has come up with. People complained about Boris being vague well welcome to Scotland. Nicola has published a document to charter our “freedom” which is basically about 20 pages or so of complete crap. Incase anyone hasn’t seen it, she’s basically copied Boris. We have 4 phases to take us our of lockdown but no dates. The only date is Monday 28th for the start of phase 1. The schools go back partially in phase 3 August 11th. Which is even earlier than the actual planned start date originally of August 18th. So businesses can see what phase they are allowed to reopen in but no idea yet if its June, July or August they will be reopening. Cases in scotland are falling. The number in hospitals are falling everyday too. We could have no one in hospital by 11th August, yet our children are being punished by an illness that is only dangerous if you are frail, elderly or underlying health issues.

I am worried about my sons education for many reasons. The online work he gets from school is woeful. He’s not learnt anything new. Its just rehashing stuff he’s already learnt. He’s only met 2 friends whilst we have been out for a walk and I am scared about how conditioned they are over 2 metres. My son is bright and although I don’t go on and on about lockdown etc he understands what is happening. He obviously looks stuff up on the Internet and speaks with friends etc and he will ask all sorts of questions about it. I tell him the facts, tell him not to be frightened of whats going on and that one day hopefully life will be back to normal.

I spoke to my sister today. We have long whats app rants about lockdown too. We both said we hope Boris speeds things up in England. You’ll all be alright and no second peak and Nicola will have to give into pressure to speed things up here too. I am starting to feel though that the tide is turning slightly. I’ve seen a couple of my friends on Facebook mentioning stuff. Although they get a barrage of “lockdown saves lives” there are more people agreeing with them. I think they are realising the overall reality of what is happening around them. I’ve felt certain sections of the media is starting to query things a bit more and look at other science. Not just the science that the politicians are looking at. I was watching a programme today and they were talking about a vaccine and how they might never find one. The host turned round and said well how long do they think they can keep us locked up for then. I’m not sitting in my house till the end of time unable to life the live I had. I want to go to a restaurant and on holiday. Good on you I thought.

I just don’t understand how politicians can sit there are lie to us all. I know its all they do everyday in normal circumstances, but why can’t they admit they got it all so wrong. They could do it in a way that blames the scientific advice, if they are not brave enough to hold their own hands up. If only they could just say sorry.

Sorry for ranting, its just not been a good day today. But tomorrow is a new day. Tomorrow is another day with fewer cases and deaths reported. Tomorrow is another day when even more people realise they have been lied to. Tomorrow is a day closer to this madness ending.

11849 ▶▶ RDawg, replying to Sheltielass, 18, #349 of 623 🔗

Sorry to hear that. Nicola Sturgeon is a fascist dictator. She is loving her new-found powers and completely abusing her position of authority. She is a joke of a leader, and sorry to say but if she had achieved her dream of Scottish independence, Scotland would have gone bankrupt by now. Unity is always better, despite disagreements and differences in beliefs.

11900 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Sheltielass, 7, #350 of 623 🔗

Very sorry to hear this. My father-in-law still lives in Edinburgh and has repeatedly told me and my husband that he’s fed up with all of this and wants his life back – going out on day trips, going to the NLS for his research, out for a coffee and going to concerts. He’s turning 80 this year and ironically is in better shape now than the last 2 years.

11928 ▶▶ kh1485, replying to Sheltielass, 1, #351 of 623 🔗

Hi Sheltielass, apologies if you’ve already seen this but this is very funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vtpk0dH9LJM

11854 Riffman, replying to Riffman, 15, #352 of 623 🔗

Big headline today….5m cases of Covid worldwide.,,in other words 0.0006% of world population. In UK deaths per million 0.0005%. Wakey wakey good people…forget your graphs and comparisons with ‘this year’ or ‘that year’. It’s all an irrelevance to next year when we’re all bankrupt jobless and in poverty. As neatly summarised a day or two back, ‘Life Is A Near Death Experience’.

11903 ▶▶ PFD, replying to Riffman, 3, #353 of 623 🔗

In the UK the deaths per million is 500, or 0.05% and not 0.0005%.
The global number of cases is 5 million in 8 billion, which is 0.06%.
It’s important that we are accurate with figures.

11954 ▶▶▶ Riffman, replying to PFD, -2, #354 of 623 🔗

I suggest you buy a new calculator….you’re wrong!

11964 ▶▶▶▶ Riffman, replying to Riffman, 2, #355 of 623 🔗

Retracted…you’re right…apologies! 😳

11858 Mike Smith, 8, #356 of 623 🔗

I’m not a seal and this isn’t a circus.

11873 Sally, replying to Sally, 15, #357 of 623 🔗

Very interesting stat from the Covid-19 data for London:

“The total number of reported deaths in London hospitals of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 is now 5,838 [up to 20 May]. The total number of deaths where COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 139.”

Presumably all the 5838 are in the death count. Does this mean that only 139 of them (less than 2.5% of them) died FROM rather than WITH the virus?

Source: https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london

11875 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Sally, 9, #358 of 623 🔗

if that’s the case, that is SCANDALOUS

11886 BobUSA, replying to BobUSA, 4, #359 of 623 🔗

Greetings from Very Sunny Southern California. Here’s a rather desperate but eloquent cry from New York City. Cheers to all the skeptics (sorry for the American spelling!)

https://nypost.com/2020/05/20/end-new-york-citys-lockdown-now/

11901 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to BobUSA, #360 of 623 🔗

Have just read the piece and its very spot on. The circles in Central Park are scary – pretty much dystopian and patronisng as if people can’t be trusted to do the right thing.

11887 Sally, replying to Sally, 5, #361 of 623 🔗

For what it’s worth, the US CDC is now estimating an overall IFR for Covid-19 of 0.26%:
https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/status/1263648729321611265

The source for this is: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

11906 ▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Sally, 2, #362 of 623 🔗

Very interesting.But even that could be an overestimate.When you look at the assumption for all calculation
“No pre-existing immunity before the pandemic began in 2019. It is assumed that all members of the U.S. population were susceptible to infection prior to the pandemic.”

11925 ▶▶▶ Sally, replying to swedenborg, 2, #363 of 623 🔗

Agreed. It also seems likely that more, perhaps substantially more, than 35% of people are asymptomatic, which is part of the calculation. Consider the figures in this article:
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-now-know-majority-contract-covid-19-asymptomatic-changes-everything/
A larger proportion of asymptomatic infections would also lower the IFR.

11935 ▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Sally, 3, #364 of 623 🔗

“We don’t have a universe of naive susceptibles, currently infected & recovered (SIR). We have a continuum of people with varying degrees of susceptibility due to variance in innate immunity (BCG effect?), cross-reactive and specific immunity. The most susceptible get eaten first.And after the virus has eaten the low-hanging fruit, the pickings get slimmer”

I think this quote is a better description of the reality than any model like the CDC assuming no immunity in the population at all to this new virus. Frankly it seems so brazenly unscientific considering already published indications of cross immunity.
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930610-3

12020 ▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to swedenborg, 3, #365 of 623 🔗

“We don’t have a universe of naive susceptibles, currently infected & recovered (SIR). We have a continuum of people with varying degrees of susceptibility due to variance in innate immunity (BCG effect?), cross-reactive and specific immunity. The most susceptible get eaten first.And after the virus has eaten the low-hanging fruit, the pickings get slimmer”

Good quote, nicely illustrating the “garbage in garbage out” situation for the early modelling of this disease.

What’s the source, if you don’t mind my asking?

12132 ▶▶▶▶▶▶ swedenborg, replying to Mark, 1, #366 of 623 🔗
12145 ▶▶▶▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to swedenborg, #367 of 623 🔗

Thanks, swede

11899 Dodgy Geezer, 3, #369 of 623 🔗

“…How could its unpreparedness possibly justify depriving the entire UK population of its liberty…?”

Surely on straight practical grounds? We have effectively instituted a central State provision for all medical services – private medical services are not capable of handling a fraction of the country’s requirement.

And now we faced our single and only health provider collapsing. Surely that justifies some heavy-handed executive action?

Of course, the real problem is that running a socialist single state provision for something as critical as health means that the provision will become increasingly bureaucratic, sclerotic and unable to survive without massive government support and administrative procedures such as central rationing and lockdown…

11902 Mark H, replying to Mark H, 33, #370 of 623 🔗

Yesterday I waited all morning with bated breath for new utterances from our Dear Leader, the hallowed First Minister of Scotland, Ms Sturgeon.

I eagerly tuned into BBC Radio Scotland, the unbiased voice of reason and truth north of Hadrian’s Wall, and listened in awe at Dear Leader’s composed delivery of her Steps to the Brave New Normal. I frantically clicked the link to the Scottish Government’s publication webpage so that I could properly digest the 48 pages of carefully considered guidelines, rules and advice Dear Leader’s team of scientific and medical experts have compiled.

Unfortunately, I received a “504 Bad Gateway Error”, which just proved to me how urgent my fellow Scots also were to dive into Dear Leader’s pool of logical reasoning. They’d crashed the website.

Eventually, I was able to find screenshots of this glorious tome’s handy infographics on Twitter. Some rogues were suggesting on Twitter that Dear Leader’s plan-for-a-roadmap-to-start-thinking-about-perhaps-easing-the-lockdown is a carbon copy of Boris’s. But I couldn’t see any similarity at all. I mean, he made his announcement nearly two weeks ago. So, that’s a big difference right away.

Dear Leader has graciously and magnanimously deigned to allow us from 28th of May to sit on park benches. I could barely contain my joy at this news. Her team of esteemed scientific advisors – undoubtedly the best in the world – have carefully analysed all the data and determined that meeting people who don’t live in the same flat as me is now allowed to take place. Outdoors, and while carefully adhering to the wise and kind social distance guidelines.

My joy at these first tentative steps into Dear Leader’s Brave New Normal was such that I immediately fetched up my youngest son from his docile slumber in front of his PC and embarked on a journey to the nearby hills. Upon finding a forestry trail car park, I ignored the “No Parking: Coronavirus” signs and we both set off on a short hike to the loch, whereupon he tossed stones into the water. His lockdown palour switched to one of rosey cheeked impdom.

Our drive home across the hills revealed every layby rammed with cars, the gated carparks had parked vehicles in front of them, and we witnessed groups of people strolling across the mossy hillside or paddling in the burns.

Arriving home, I spent some time further examining Dear Leaders plan-for-a-roadmap-to-start-thinking-about-perhaps-easing-the-lockdown and wondered in awe at the way she and her team has managed to avoid setting false hopes in the minds of her subjects.

For example, the only date in the document is 28th of May. She has wisely decided to give no further indication of how Scotland fully progresses into the Brave New Normal. Instead, she has clearly and concisely laid out in incredibly minute detail how much advice and guidance Scots will require from her and her Party in all areas of life and business, in order to, at some point in the future, move into her Brave New Normal. No part of the Bad Old Normal remains untouched from her kind-but-firm hand. Instead, a life of bravely following Dear Leader’s guidance and scientific advice is laid out in front of us. And, I for one, can’t wait.

Thankfully no part of Dear Leader’s plan-for-a-roadmap-to-start-thinking-about-perhaps-easing-the-lockdown is set in stone. She has wisely decided that it’s all subject to change at a moment’s notice. And along with not bowing to any pressure to give her people actual dates, she’s instead – in her wisdom – told us that she will personally review Scotland’s position every 3 weeks.

And I’m delighted at this. The fake-news media is reporting that deaths in Scotland are falling daily. I read somewhere, it might even have been on Dear Leader’s Party website, that there are only 40 COVID-19 patients in ICU across the whole country, but I think that might be a clerical error because I trust Dear Leader when she says the threat from the virus is very, very severe. To us all.

I’m just glad that she reminds us every day at her press briefing how good we’ve all been. And it’s lovely that she’s rewarding our obedience by maybe opening up the garden centres next week. I don’t have a garden, but I greatly appreciate this warm gesture from Dear Leader. I’ve heard some people saying they wish she’d open up more shops, even hairdressers or barbers. But I think that’s both selfish and rude to Dear Leader. I mean, she has the best scientists and medical advisors on the planet helping her, and she even keeps reminding us that, ultimately, it will be down to her personal judgement what is best for her subjects.

Anyway, I was so overwhelmed by her pronouncements that I banged my pots and pans extra hard last night at 8 pm. Right now I’ve never been prouder to be a subject of Dear Leader. After all, some analysts are saying Dear Leader will be keeping Scotland safe from the deadly virus for longer than any other country in the world.

11909 ▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to Mark H, 8, #371 of 623 🔗

Great post. We are indeed so fortunate in Scotland to have a failed divorce lawyer, along with a dentist and GP, leading us to the sunny uplands.

11915 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Hammer Onats, 6, #372 of 623 🔗

All we need now is an issue of little tartan books-think Chairman Mao for Sturgeon land- which we can then brandish joyously and mindlessly every Thursday evening, along with the church bells-a feature here-and assorted pots, pans and emotive clapping.

My particular favourite is that we’ll be able to meet friends, provided the 2metre rule is obeyed: cue sign language, strained postures and shouting across the hallowed safe space.

I truly never thought to witness such abject stupidity.

11917 ▶▶ wendyk, replying to Mark H, 7, #373 of 623 🔗

And Dear Leader will then lead us into the glorious epoch of indyref 2 plus supplication EU style.
She Who Must Be Obeyed will ensure that an impoverished, debt ridden land of the brave and true will throw off the wicked, punitive, miserly Barnett Formula for a brave new world of EU penury.

11997 ▶▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to wendyk, 1, #374 of 623 🔗

Have you seen the stuff in The Herald about the idiot from East Linton trying to organise a “clap for Nicola” event tonight? He’s been soundly ridiculed on social media, deservedly so.

12011 ▶▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Hammer Onats, #375 of 623 🔗

O don’t ! I steer away from The Herald as a rule. How I wish we could be rid of them.

12012 ▶▶▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to wendyk, #376 of 623 🔗

The SNP that is

11907 TJN, replying to TJN, 17, #377 of 623 🔗

Villains of the Pandemic

Following my ‘Heroes of the Pandemic’ of a few days ago, and the following day Margaret’s groups of people for whom she has lost any respect, I’ve been thinking about my villains of the last few months. (Apologies if this has already been done.)

Most obviously, Professor Neil Ferguson. And yet … Rather than an actual villain, he seems to me a Dr Faustus-type character who sold his soul for short time in the limelight, knowing that eventually he would be found out, and that public damnation would follow. In a sense, his character flaws leave him also a victim of all this.

Matt Hancock? He seems to me a very ordinary politician who happened to find himself with an extraordinary burden on his shoulders, which he was utterly unable to bear. And it shows. Again, a sort of victim?

The likes of Sadiq Khan? Well I don’t think they come out of this with much credit; yet they have hardly been at the centre of events, and thus cannot be over-burdened with responsibility.
Piers Morgan? I never watch him, so can’t comment directly. But from what others say it doesn’t’ seem good.

The Prime Minister – well, I’m afraid it’s getting increasingly difficult to defend him.

PC Brown, of the Met and YouTube fame? In a sense he seems to me just as much a victim of his own credulity as those sorts of individuals you see driving cars alone wearing face masks. He appeared really to believe that Covid-19 was a sort of automatic weapon firing indiscriminately at individuals in the open air, and thus – reasonably following this logic – that his assertive behaviour was fully justified. I wonder if he is reflecting now.

The more I thought about my ‘villains’ the harder I found it to identify actual individuals. Rather I kept coming back to organisations and institutions.

Why did SAGE apparently not probe and question properly Ferguson’s predictions? Why was such shoddy work allowed to become the basis of government policy?

Why was that burden abandoned onto Hancock’s shoulders, and where was the support he should have received from wider government (and clearly didn’t)? His civil servants and scientific advisors; and the wider cabinet?

Again and again, rather than individuals, I keep coming back to organisations. The World Health Organisation; Public Health England; our local and national governmental institutions; the mainstream media; elements (and to be fair, only elements) of the Police service; teachers unions; those local tourism boards who insist their areas are closed for visitors, even small numbers of visitors fully complying with guidance … you get the drift: an amorphous blob of unaccountability, of corporate networkers and time-serving careerists. In short, followers rather than leaders. And the lack of leadership, I’m afraid, goes all the way to the Prime Minister.

These are just my ramblings, hurriedly written. If I’ve been unfair I’m happy to be corrected. But the picture seems to me to be deeply depressing.

As so often nowadays, I’m reminded of Sherelle Jacobs’ Telegraph article of way back on 26 March. To quote her last two paragraphs:

‘Most chilling of all perhaps, as this pandemic demonstrates, when managerial elites fail, they fall back on soft totalitarianism and the surveillance state to crawl their countries out of the messes they themselves have, through their sheer incompetence, created.
In the long term, total systems change in Britain now looks more inevitable than ever; we may look back on coronavirus as even more of a catalyst than Brexit in time. But for now, Mr Johnson’s short-term choice in coming weeks is clear: back herd immunity or be prepared to fall with the infirm herd of global elites, who will not survive this disgraceful fiasco.’

That was two months ago. We now know which of these choices Mr Johnson backed.

12000 ▶▶ paulito, replying to TJN, 6, #378 of 623 🔗

TJN. Not unfair at all. I would add, and perhaps among the greatest villains in all this, the media who contributed so much to the climate of panic and fear.

12068 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to paulito, 3, #379 of 623 🔗

They’re my number one.

Especially all those at the lovely BBC and The Guardian.

12035 ▶▶ Carrie, replying to TJN, 2, #380 of 623 🔗

Matt Hancock has majority shares in a pharma company – say no more..

12041 ▶▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Carrie, 2, #381 of 623 🔗

He “owns” them as the Secretary of Health not as an individual, I checked on this weeks ago. He moves on or better stills asked someone else will be named.

No-one could answer me though why the UK Government need to own outright a company that is basically a bit of the Porton Down biolab that has been “privatised” and is doing anthrax vaccine research for the US Government.

Hancock has links to Bill Gates though, on his Facebook page is a picture for 2019 (I think) when they met to discuss vaccines.

12042 ▶▶▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Awkward Git, #382 of 623 🔗

I meant better still gets sacked – bloody bad typing, no glasses and predictive text makes for a nightmare.

11911 AN other lockdown sceptic, 10, #383 of 623 🔗

Good morning fellow Lockdown Sceptics

Looks like some US politicians are calling out the BS.

‘Paging Dr Fauci’ –
comment image

11912 wendyk, replying to wendyk, 16, #384 of 623 🔗

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/22/nothing-can-justify-this-destruction-of-peoples-lives/

Read this; a cogent rebuttal of the hysterical overreaction which has left us in this lamentable state of economic and social stasis.
One of the best I’ve read to date.

11919 ▶▶ Sally, replying to wendyk, 5, #385 of 623 🔗

You might be interested in reading what Yoram Lass had to say back in March, just as all the lockdowns were starting. It’s also a great interview:
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

11924 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Sally, 1, #386 of 623 🔗

Thank you; I’ll read it

11922 ▶▶ swedenborg, replying to wendyk, 5, #387 of 623 🔗

Agree 100%.The best interview ever about the whole thing. I think his description of the vicious circle politician social media etc is spot on.

11960 ▶▶ A13, replying to wendyk, 6, #388 of 623 🔗

It’s good, i like this guy
“Any reasonable expert – that is, anyone but Professor Ferguson from Imperial College who would have locked down everybody when we had swine flu – will tell you that lockdown cannot change the final number of infected people. It can only change the rate of infection. “

11974 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to wendyk, 8, #389 of 623 🔗

Just read it – he doesn’t mince his words doesn’t he?

He’s right about the lack of logic though, all throughout this I have been amazed at how even well educated people can fall for this hysteria. He’s also spot on about social media, I do despair at people who use it to virtue signal, for example how good they are by modelling their useless masks and gloves.

11921 SweetBabyCheeses, replying to SweetBabyCheeses, 9, #390 of 623 🔗

Apologies if anyone has linked to this before. I have recently heard about this “Community Contact Tracing” group in Sheffield. Has apparently been set up by a group of retired GPs fed up the Gov had given up. Headed up by Dr Bing Jones (woke leftie as seems to have been arrested at an Extinction Rebellion protest last year?)
Anyway, can only find coverage in the Guardian. But interested to hear what you guys think of it? I don’t think the app is going to work unless they can fix the Apple “handshake” flaw AND assuage privacy concerns. But I believe we do have a strong contact tracing sector in the UK already (for HIV, TB, meningitis etc) so I think this does have good potential.
I’m keen on this because if we can answer the question that keeps me awake at night WHERE HAS ANYONE CAUGHT THE VIRUS IN THE LAST 8 WEEKS? and demonstrate that it’s not the beach, the countryside, shops, parks, car parks etc then we might be able to get back to normal and perhaps even get an admission that these are not dangerous activities!
The pilot would seem to imply that the virus is nosocomial. And that the secretive and obstructive attitude of the heathcare workers they tried to trace would imply that they also know that.

Study: https://www.communitycontacttracers.com/
Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/uk-first-coronavirus-contact-tracing-group-warns-of-difficulties
Dr Bing Jones: https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/environment/retired-doctor-co-ordinating-environmentalist-protest-expected-cause-traffic-chaos-sheffield-defends-controversial-plans-494199

12126 ▶▶ Clarence Beeks, replying to SweetBabyCheeses, 5, #391 of 623 🔗

This is what i’ve been saying for weeks. Find out where the virus is being transmitted and then abandon social distancing in other settings and unlock the rest of society so it can get on with all non-risk activities.

11929 Louise, 27, #392 of 623 🔗

We are quite literally sacrificing the future economic well-being of our children and grandchildren with ever day that passes. Each morning I wake up feeling utterly bewildered by the idiocy of this. I have gone from believing that it was well intentioned error to something far more sinister. Where are the Greta’s of this world who are supposedly obsessed with our children and their future? So it was never about the children for them at all was it? This little patch of industrial inactivity is enough to satisfy them to keep quiet about the serious implications for the young disgraceful.

11937 Jane in France, replying to Jane in France, 11, #393 of 623 🔗

Read this in Off Guardian. https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/22/report-eu-planning-vaccination-passport-since-2018/ The EU has been looking at a “vaccine roadmap” since at least as early as 2018 and studying the feasibility of a vaccine card/passport for EU citizens.
“The point is that proposed COVID countermeasures, which have been presented to the public as emergency measures thought up on the fly by panicking institutions, have in fact existed since before the emergence the disease.
They already wanted to monitor your vaccination records and tie that to your passport, introduce mandatory vaccinations and clampdown on “misinformation”. They just didn’t have a reason yet.
This was a situation which required a crisis and, fortuitously, it got one.”
Thanks to covid, a lot of people will be begging for such a “vaccine card” so that we can get back to “normal.”

11947 ▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to Jane in France, 6, #394 of 623 🔗

There will be a backlash if they continue with the mandatory vaccine route.

12010 ▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to Jane in France, 1, #395 of 623 🔗

You may be correct, but I think the sceptic movement really needs to distance itself from the anti-vaxx one or we just end up getting labelled as crazies and conspiracy theorists.

12209 ▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to SweetBabyCheeses, 3, #396 of 623 🔗

Of course, because that is what the establishment does. Conspiracy theory is now a weaponised term to denote that you are off your trolley. So here’s a few conspiracies that have been validated: WMD, Big Tobacco, Watergate, Operation Northwoods, plot to overthrow Wilson’s government, McCarthyism. There’s plenty of reasons to be dubious about vaccines, especially the prevalence these days in kids, but as soon as you label someone an anti-vaxxer they are, by definition, conspiracy theorists who ignore the science. Wrong: they dispute the establishment’s (vested interests’) science.

12016 ▶▶ South Coast Worker, replying to Jane in France, #397 of 623 🔗

The Patriot Act was written years before 9/11 and part of PNAC.

12033 ▶▶▶ Jane in France, replying to South Coast Worker, 1, #398 of 623 🔗

I’m not saying that’s necessarily what I think. I believe that governments genuinely did panic and now they don’t want to lose face. The article is interesting, though.

12037 ▶▶ Carrie, replying to Jane in France, #399 of 623 🔗

If you look at page 9 of the EU document you will see reference to mass procurement of a flu vaccine for a p(l)andemic.. https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

11940 Awkward Git, replying to Awkward Git, 21, #400 of 623 🔗

I’ve started receiving press releases from trade bodies, individual businesses, business groups, clubs etc all saying they are getting ready to open “following government guidance”.

I must admit last night I had enough reading the garbage they put out hoping to entice back my business when they do eventually open and both me and my wife said if they expect us to go to a pub or restaurant for example, stay apart from people, look at staff in full PPE, no standing at the bar, stand behind flimsy perspex screens, take our own cutlery, so salt and pepper etc then we just won’t go. That is just exchanging one prison for another and will be more depressing than staying at home. Ditto going on holidays with all the curfews and restrictions I’ll stay at home and fill the garden with beach sand and sun lamps instead.

I know from running my own business for years and having run ins with HSE on behalf of clients that guidance is just that and does not need to be followed. If you do your own risk assessment properly and use that as a basis for conditions under which to operate then this is legal. Guidance is just an opinion, it is only law when you got to court and a judge makes his decision on it.

Th “risk assessments” that all these companies are doing, if they do it at all and are not just following the guidance, is just taking into account Government’s announcements. they are not looking at the independently researched information available which is what got my blood boiling.

So anyway in the end I have started sending out something like the e-mail below in reply to them, bit rough at the moment but I’ll tart it up as I go along:

“Reading your press releases I think you need to robustly challenge the Government on a lot of fronts.

For example:

– social distancing is not law in England nor is it enforceable by the Police
– there is no evidence to justify social distancing measures
– The WHO publication “Non pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza” – ISBN 978-92-4-151683-9 – is being ignored even though the Government claim there are “following the science” and WHO guidelines. It clearly states in a few places but most notably in table 1
Not recommended in any circumstances:
Contact tracing
Quarantine of exposed individuals
Border closure
Entry and exit screening Internal travel restrictions
– the covid-19 “virus” is not that dangerous to the overwhelming majority of the population and it is not a “once in a century unprecedented pandemic”.
– as each day passes more and more evidence comes out that the lockdown and imprisonment of the population and closure of the economy was unnecessary and cannot be justified including evidence from the Government’s own experts.

There are many independent sources of information available to back-up these statements and to challenge the authorities. I can point you in their direction if you wish instead of just kowtowing to everything the Government announces and states as true and watching as all your members eventually close their businesses for good. ”

Not had one reply yet but having fun pushing back against them at the moment.

11952 ▶▶ IanE, replying to Awkward Git, 1, #401 of 623 🔗

Heroic efforts – I hope, but rather doubt (OK, maybe just my despair setting in), some will pay attention to your comments!

12110 ▶▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to IanE, 1, #402 of 623 🔗

I know I’m pissing in the wind but keeps me amused.

11958 ▶▶ Paul, replying to Awkward Git, 9, #403 of 623 🔗

We are greatly missing the simple pleasure of meeting our friends for a nice meal or a drink but like you I cannot see the point of going to restaurants and pubs if they end up putting those types of alienating measures in place,something I can see happening very easily if the ridiculous measures that a lot of shops have implemented are anything to go by.

11968 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Paul, 7, #404 of 623 🔗

Hence why restaurants and pubs need to keep up the pressure on the government to abandon social distancing especially if they don’t want to go under and make their employees redudant.

11972 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to Paul, #405 of 623 🔗

None at all. I would just stay home and have drink while talking to you friends.

11966 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Awkward Git, 9, #406 of 623 🔗

This reminded me of a meeting I had with my team a few days’ ago where we were told that management were in the process of putting plans for our putative reopening such as social distancing and PPE. I made a point that all of these will be academic as given the financial situation and impending recession we won’t be seeing hordes of people coming through our doors and that we ran the risk of alienating and patronising our visitors. The reply I got was that “we had to be seen to be doing something.”

If this is the case then I won’t be surprise if and when we reopen and no-one comes at all.

12040 ▶▶ Carrie, replying to Awkward Git, 1, #407 of 623 🔗

Please keep us updated on any replies you receive!

11942 Tom Blackburn, replying to Tom Blackburn, 16, #408 of 623 🔗

All of the major broadcasters read eulogies for some of those that have sadly passed away from Coronavirus. These are predominantly younger individuals despite the demographic the virus targets being much older. Likewise, when using graphics and photos, those of the younger health and care workers have most prominence on the screen, being bigger and left up for longer. This serves only to stoke fears and raise anxieties. It is not an honest representation of what is going on. Sky news are the worst culprits for this.

https://ofcomforms.secure.force.com/formentry/SitesFormCSLEStandardsComplaints

This is the form to complain to Ofcom.

11991 ▶▶ 4096, replying to Tom Blackburn, 5, #409 of 623 🔗

This his kind of shameless emotional manipulation makes want to vomit – I’m sure I’m not the only one.
Were are the eulogies for the 1,352 (at least – Publick Health England data) who died from flu in 2019, around 64,000 people killed by air pollution ( European Heart Journal) etc. etc. ?

12007 ▶▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to 4096, 2, #410 of 623 🔗

I agree. What about the 5000 children that die every day from something so simple as dirty water? Lives in the developing world apparently aren’t worth as much 🙁

11944 Bella Donna, replying to Bella Donna, 9, #411 of 623 🔗

The 2 mtr rule is far from sensible as it assumes everyone is sick and will sneeze or cough over you which is untrue!

11953 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Bella Donna, 8, #412 of 623 🔗

Now, now, Bella. Government knows best. If Government says we’re too stupid to be trusted with a 1m separation, who the hell are we to question them?

The words of Prof Dingwall a couple of weeks ago, an insider to the government discussions (he’s on Nervtag):

“Prof Dingwall said he had been told by a senior public health specialist that “we knew it was one metre but we doubled it to two because we did not think the British population would understand what one metre was and we could not trust them to observe it so we doubled it to be on the safe side”.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/07/government-has-terrorised-britons-believing-coronavirus-will/

11970 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Mark, 20, #413 of 623 🔗

I’ve just received a ticking off by a decidedly officious concerned citizen: I was inside a local shop looking at the cereals available; door opened ,youngish bloke stood back and informed me that he couldn’t come in as I was breaching the 2 metre rule.

I replied that it wasn’t strictly necessary, so he took his courage in both hands and walked past me, only to complain loudly to one of the staff that he’d just been told 2 metres wasn’t necessary.

Feeling subversive, I engaged him in a friendly conversation, at which he calmed down, agreed that the guidelines were causing confusion, that he was self employed but had plenty of work and thought that testing would solve the present difficulties.

I pointed out that the economy needed to revive; he agreed; I pointed out that this pesky bug, aside form causing mass hysteria, causes fewer deaths than seasonal flu; he agreed,then said that nursing homes were badly affected. I agreed, but pointed out that many residents were already suffering form many other illnesses, as well as the decline which comes with advanced old age.
We parted on good terms; job done.

This officious, concerned citizen attitude makes me see red and I don’t intend to be pulled up for irresponsible behaviour.

12018 ▶▶▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to wendyk, 2, #414 of 623 🔗

Well done for arguing the point.

12024 ▶▶▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Bella Donna, 1, #415 of 623 🔗

Thank you; it was satisfying I must admit.

11969 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Bella Donna, #416 of 623 🔗

By the way Bella, yesterday you wrote: “Today I read that another expert says this virus is just a very bad cold.”

Can you let me know who that was and give me a link, please? I’ve been collecting such quotes and I’d like to see if this one’s on the list, and add it if not.

12022 ▶▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to Mark, #417 of 623 🔗

Mark, sorry I cannot recall which Web site it was in, I visit so many. If I come across it again I’ll give the link.

However this article is very interesting.

https://www.spiked-online.com/

12031 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Bella Donna, #418 of 623 🔗

No prob, thanks. I posted my current list in the following comment, if you are interested. I’d love to add another if it turns out yours was a new one.

list of experts saying it’s just flu

(Ignore all the lockdown-loving comments and ratings on that page, it was obviously linked to on the forum that was criticised in the piece, with an encouragement to its members to come over and defend their forum.)

Your Spiked link went to the Spiked front page.

11961 petgor, replying to petgor, 16, #419 of 623 🔗

I am beginning to think that having a family member with the virus has become a badge of honour. I have noticed it in particular with those in the media. Julia Hartley-Brewer, who together with Mike Graham, both presenters on Talk Radio and both the voices of sweet reason, Julia’s family seem to have suffered most from the virus.

I have friends with allegedly infected family members, who bore for England on the subject.

In a piece in the last edition of the Spectator by Susan Hill, she relates that her daughter has been infected with the virus. This occurred notwithstanding that her daughter was ‘religious to a fault’ about lockdown, social distancing, handwashing, exercising alone early in the morning, walked with her husband and son far from everyone, no one has visited for weeks, parcels are left untouched for 24 hours, meets others only on Zoom, food mainly delivered but if she shops she is fastidious about the safety rules. One has to ask the question: what was the point of the lockdown if she is, as seems to be the case, of being the perfect internee?

11996 ▶▶ Sarigan, replying to petgor, 1, #420 of 623 🔗

Kate Garroway’s husband seems to have got it really bad. Two months later and he is still in intensive care – really? Sure there is not something else going on?

11998 ▶▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to Sarigan, 3, #421 of 623 🔗

The longer you stay in hospital the more likely you are to pick up other infections, bed sores etc. Just being immobile 24/7 really isn’t good for you.

12063 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Sarigan, 2, #422 of 623 🔗

Looking at his picture, I can imagine that he has other underlying health conditions and perhaps Covid 19 is the least of his problems.

12001 ▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to petgor, 1, #423 of 623 🔗

If I was Susan’s daughter I’d have to be questioning whether my husband was cheating on me…what other possible explanation is there?

12038 ▶▶ IanE, replying to petgor, 2, #424 of 623 🔗

That ‘religious’ rather gives the game away!

11965 petgor, replying to petgor, 13, #425 of 623 🔗

I got this from “statmodelling.stat.columbia.edu”. The heading is “so, the real scandal is: why did anyone listen to this guy?”

Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.

So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?

11971 ▶▶ Adele Bull, replying to petgor, 12, #426 of 623 🔗

And why are they STILL using his crappy stats to keep us locked up?!

11990 ▶▶▶ paulito, replying to Adele Bull, 15, #427 of 623 🔗

Adele, could it be desperation? The idiot Prime Minister of Spain claimed yesterday that without mass imprisonment, 300,000 would have died. So, Spain with a population of 47 million would have had almost the same number of deaths as the total worldwide. Anybody who believes this nonsense really needs to have their heads tested.

12003 ▶▶ mhcp, replying to petgor, 6, #428 of 623 🔗

They believed him because for years there has been a push for Green and the tacit acceptance of the supposition called Man Made Climate Change. This lunacy has softened people up. It takes about 10 minutes to look at the source data and see it is all hypothetical musings, not applicable to the real world.

But try telling people they’ve fooled themselves over that.

Try telling them that the 40+ billion the UK has pissed away in “renewables” was another Monorail in the Sky.

The actual truth comes out much later. The problem is we have no means to protect politicians from stupid policies. Unless we start to implement Hammurrabi again

11973 A13, replying to A13, 14, #429 of 623 🔗

Get the popcorn ready – the blame game is starting
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/will-pm-explain-public-inquiry-left-lockdown-late/

Also this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/22/coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-fifth-people-believe-virus-hoax/
“Coronavirus conspiracy theories: More than a fifth of people believe the virus is a hoax
Almost three fifths of adults in England believe to some extent that the Government is misleading the public about the cause of the virus”
It doesn’t really align with the polls showing support for lockdown!

12036 ▶▶ IanE, replying to A13, 1, #430 of 623 🔗

Yes, the poll results are very smelly indeed!

12096 ▶▶ 4096, replying to A13, 7, #431 of 623 🔗

I think, that any sign that more people are starting to question the official narrative is excellent news.
But at the same time it’s so depressing to see how moronic a large percentage of the population really is. They would rather believe the government is lying about the cause of the virus or think that it’s caused by 5G or God knows what than look at the data and see how ridiculously low the risk of dying for anyone not in the vulnerable group is or, for example, how small the number of covid deaths is compared with death from other common diseases such as even the flu – up to 650 000 deaths globally (covid -290,000) and stop behaving like terrified cattle.
No wonder they swallowed this whole lockdown nonsense hook, line and sinker.

11976 Margaret, replying to Margaret, 12, #432 of 623 🔗

Just seen that Sky News webpage are carrying the story of the antibody tests but Matt Hancock is saying that the government could not currently say if people who test positive for these antibodies are necessarily immune from Covid-19.
Surely not!! After all, Professor Pantsdown’s excuse when he was caught out was that he acted in the belief that he was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus and isolated himself for two weeks after developing symptoms-and he would know, wouldn’t he? Wouldn’t he??!!

11981 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Margaret, 10, #433 of 623 🔗

As many people have rightfully pointed out – wouldn’t this mean a vaccine would be useless?

11983 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Farinances, 7, #434 of 623 🔗

Honestly, this is hilarious. The vaccine! The vaccine! The vaccine!

Which generates an IMMUNE RESPONSE. So er……

11982 ▶▶ A13, replying to Margaret, 12, #435 of 623 🔗

Matt Handjob is desperately trying to find a way to make some money for his bosses at Big Pharma.
I can’t believe that the government is still contemplating the idea of immunity passports!

12061 ▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to A13, 3, #436 of 623 🔗

the chaos continues

12014 ▶▶ karate56, replying to Margaret, 16, #437 of 623 🔗

Matt Hancock, is nothing other than mentally retarded. If people didn’t have immune systems, we would be dead within weeks, every last one of us. Even to the most heinous diseases on the planet, we still have an immune response, even if the victim eventually dies. Even to the moist minor, we have a response. To suggest we don’t know whether we have an immune response to coronavirus is utterly bizarre – antibody production is the immune response or am I gpooing mental? How else do people recover, witch doctory? Rubbing a rabbits foot? Drinking urine? We may not be immune for ever, but I’d hazard a guess all of us have a response. If not, and the “science” has been wrong for all these 10’s of years, stop wasting billions on vaccines.

12017 ▶▶ Saved To Death, replying to Margaret, 16, #438 of 623 🔗

Those who test negative are not necessarily not immune. Why are we wasting the money. The best way forward for this country is to immediately return to normal – the old normal normal and begin the process of gathering the necessary evidence to hold people to account for the mess they have created. It is becoming increasingly clear that many/most in government and their advisers need to be on trial not running the country and dictating to us what we should or should not be doing.

12059 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Margaret, 4, #439 of 623 🔗

Matt Hancock is saying that the government could not currently say if people who test positive for these antibodies are necessarily immune from Covid-19

Reminds me of the article on this site about anxiety and hyper-rationality and the impossibility of effectively arguing with those who are in its grip:

The Hyper-Rationality of Crowds: COVID-19 and the Cult of Anxiety

“Look, it’s overwhelmingly likely that those who produce antibodies are effectively immune to caching and spreading this disease. Even if a few were still able to get it, most wouldn’t and that would be enough.”

“But you can’t prove beyond any doubt that nobody who has antibodies will ever get the disease, can you? Eh? Eh?”

“Well, in theory, no, but -”

“Well then, case closed…precautionary principle…blah blah…we’ll have to keep strangling our economy and society just in case. Keep safe.”

12190 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Mark, 2, #440 of 623 🔗

Most of their ‘case’ seems to rely completely on proving negatives.

You know….. that thing we’re told you should never have to do in any rational context.

11977 swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 19, #441 of 623 🔗

Boris Johnson is to start quarantine visitors from June. This is one of the most ludicrous decision in the Covid-19 response. He did not do anything in the previous 5 months and must now stop importing infections from people coming from countries which already had the epidemic, as bad as UK, in many cases. It will be the nail in the coffin for UK tourist business. There is such an easy way out to take and at least salvage some of the tourist business in the UK. Look at https://www.covibes.org/
The countries in green has already mostly finished the pandemic and category 3 is almost there very shortly, many in the beginning of June. Persons from those countries would be very unlikely to carry the virus and any addition to the UK population would be minimal. A clearly defined corridor, to let these countries come into UK unrestricted, would be an easy political thing to implement.
Even the headless chicken in charge of Italy, Conte (btw the man who started the most dangerous pandemic ever, pandemic of lockdowns) has realized this and is opening up his country in June for those few tourists surviving post Covid-19. Not in Spain, where the national suicide is in full swing. Canary Island (the economy 40% tourist industry) is to introduce a digital pass etc in July! Will anyone bother to come when there will be a fierce competition for any tourist at all in the Mediterranean countries?
They obviously think that the paycheque will come from Merkel in perpetuity. They are in for a nasty surprise.

11980 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to swedenborg, 12, #442 of 623 🔗

I can only find three words to describe this lunacy – Stable. Horse. Bolted.

11985 ▶▶ paulito, replying to swedenborg, 13, #443 of 623 🔗

The Spanish government are determined t o drag this insanity out for as long as posible. The press reported yesterday that Spain places more obstacles in front of the tourist industry tan any other countryin Europe. Their brilliant plan for beaches includes making an appointment, marking out Little plots to maintain distancing and drones. Who the hell would come on holiday under those conditions. Wish you were here!

12008 ▶▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to paulito, 3, #444 of 623 🔗

LOL. Making an appointment like you would for a doctor or dentist! Oh dear!

12009 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to paulito, 3, #445 of 623 🔗

The Germans will grab all the best plots-if they come!

12053 ▶▶▶ Old fred, replying to paulito, 2, #446 of 623 🔗

we certainly won’t be coming. last thing we want is nonsense like that – let’s hope Greece opening up shortly will make the spanish govt realise they must do the same.

11987 ▶▶ Sarigan, replying to swedenborg, 37, #447 of 623 🔗

It is an absolute fucking joke. I work in outbound travel and this will absolutely be the final nail in the coffin for many businesses and will result hundreds of thousands losing their jobs. In 2018, UK tourism and generated £218 billion:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/598093/travel-and-tourism-gdp-total-contribution-united-kingdom-uk/

To put it in personal perspective, in April 2019 my business turned over £190,000 with a gross profit of £18,000. In April 2020 I turned over £1,900 with a loss of £16,000 (due to refunds of commissions etc from cancellations). May figures will be significantly worse. A £10K grant goes little way to compensate and I am very reluctant to take any form of loan – I would rather just shut down while solvent and hold my head high.

18 years of sweat blood and tears to build a successful business ripped away from under my nose as a direct result of abject stupidity, hysteria and Government failures.

11994 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Sarigan, 27, #448 of 623 🔗

Peter Hitchens was pointing out early on that a society in which many of its most active and effective citizens – those with the drive and ability to build a business – are dispossessed, embittered and politically unrepresented, is a society in big trouble.

11995 ▶▶ SweetBabyCheeses, replying to swedenborg, 12, #449 of 623 🔗

I get the distinct impression that a lot of the inhabitants of UK tourist destinations (Cornwall, Devon, Wales, Lakes, Peaks) have realised this spring that they actually don’t like having visitors and would much rather keep it quiet and peaceful (and presumably economically dormant and run down too).

12060 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to SweetBabyCheeses, 8, #450 of 623 🔗

Luckily the guy at Welcome To Yorkshire has been on TV trying to encourage tourists to get their arses to the Dales. Hopefully everyone up there is about ready to get on with it despite the pice running around like the Stasi issuing fines to everyone who so much as farts in a field.

12101 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to SweetBabyCheeses, 7, #451 of 623 🔗

I don’t think they will be laughing when the young in their area eventually leave due to the lack of job opportunities and their areas become even more depopulated leaving only the very rich and the very old.

12189 ▶▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Bart Simpson, 2, #452 of 623 🔗

To be fair this has already largely happened – which is why none of them seem to care about retaining a tourist industry

12251 ▶▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Farinances, #453 of 623 🔗

I used to live in Scotland and large swathes of the countryside especially the Highlands and the Islands are massively depopulated. I’m not surprised.

11986 Snake Oil Pussy, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 7, #454 of 623 🔗

“It is a very difficult question to know exactly when we will have proof that the vaccine works because we need, within our population of 10,000 people, to have enough of those who have been exposed to the virus over that time, who are hopefully in the controlled group, who are getting the control vaccine, and to see whether the coronavirus vaccine protects them.

Now, there is uncertainty about how many cases there will be over the next three months.

If there are cases then it is certainly possible by the autumn to have a result, and that is what we are hoping for, but it is not possible to predict.” – Prof Andrew Pollard, head of Oxford Vaccine Group, on Radio 4 this morning.

The researchers seem unwilling to, or are not allowed to, deliberately expose people in the trial to the virus and are relying on there being enough of it circulating in the community to prove that the vaccine is effective. Which means that if the lockdown “works”, or the epidemic fizzles out naturally, then we won’t have a proven vaccine and are stuck with social distancing for ever.

All the more reason to get out there and spread the virus as far and wide as possible.

11989 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 16, #455 of 623 🔗

It’s like. ……

WHY WONT THEY JUST ADMIT WE HAVE IMMUNE SYSTEMS. WHY.

12005 ▶▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to Farinances, 10, #456 of 623 🔗

Because drug companies can’t make money out of our immune systems. It’s that simple!

11992 Oaks79, replying to Oaks79, 1, #457 of 623 🔗

I think all this will be forgotten once war with China breaks out to be honest. There was no mention of the word “peaceful” in front of “reunification” when describing Taiwan during this year’s Chnese government work report. The standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades when addressing parliament and mentioning Taiwan. Plus all what’s happening with Hong Kong, China are going for expansion.

12006 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Oaks79, 1, #458 of 623 🔗

Well if you’re enthusiastic for that war, I think you’ll find that an attempted guarantee of Taiwan’s adherence to the US sphere rather than the Chinese one will cost an awful lot more than our (failed) guarantee of Poland’s independence did.

12002 wendyk, replying to wendyk, 8, #459 of 623 🔗

A short while ago I spoke to the dental nurse whom I know quite well; she told me that our practice is receiving more and more anxious phone calls from anxious fol, wanting to know when they’ll be able to see a dentist.

Nothing doing; extractions only at approved hubs for the foreseeable future; dental and oral problems, some potentially serious, will not be treated/diagnosed for many more weeks.

12004 ▶▶ wendyk, replying to wendyk, #460 of 623 🔗

Should read anxious folk…..

12019 ▶▶ AnotherSceptic, replying to wendyk, 30, #461 of 623 🔗

Regarding dentists, I have this week developed an abscess in my mouth, so I called the local dental practice who are only open between 10am & 1pm to give advice & solutions for treatment.
I explained what was up with me & the lovely woman explained that unfortunately they couldn’t do anything to treat it in the dentist, but that she could get a prescription for some antibiotics done & send it to my local pharmacy for me to collect.
Which she did.
I asked her when they would likely to be re-opening & she said unfortunately she doesn’t know & that they are playing things by ear at the moment.

I find this situation outrageous (not a dig at my dental practice or others here btw) that people need to see dentists all the time all over the UK, & are being denied essential treatment, yet if I wanted to pot some plants in my garden, I can go to a stupid garden centre????….How is a garden centre classed higher up than a dental practice?
It is the same with car garages, I need some minor work done to my car, but because of this nonsense, the garage that I use normally, is closed & it’s the same thing, the owner doesn’t know when he will re-open.

But, if you want to buy some plants or compost etc, you can go to a garden centre??

Absolutely stupid. Priorities are totally wrong here,
Dentists are essential, Garages that work on vehicles are essential, Garden centres are NOT essential.

Boris, you are a fucking twat, as are all your cronies.
Same goes for Nicola Sturgeon.

Sorry for the rant & language, but this is getting more stupid & frustrating by the day.

12023 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to AnotherSceptic, 11, #462 of 623 🔗

You’re absolutely right! Dentistry is one of our most essential services, so why deny us?

Many dentists are furloughed, many have lost income and many fear that their practices might not survive.

The eventual waiting lists will grow and grow, and if these ridiculous rules remain, 2 metre distancing will render dental practice impossible, unless the government is going to pay for robotic arms of some sort!

All of the procedures in modern dental practice generate aerosols to varying degrees, so someone, somewhere, needs to apply some much needed common sense sooner rather than later.

12032 ▶▶ IanE, replying to wendyk, 13, #463 of 623 🔗

Yes – quite disgraceful. Surely young healthy dentists should be allowed to volunteer, perhaps for enhanced rates to compensate for tiny risks relevant for the young and healthy. Florence Nightingale would be disgusted (and heart-broken) to see such wimpy HSE madness over serious health needs.

12034 ▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to wendyk, 4, #464 of 623 🔗

Someone I know received a call from their dentist cancelling their appointment because they now have a backlog of patients needing treatment.

12058 ▶▶ bluefreddy, replying to wendyk, 12, #465 of 623 🔗

No-one has publicised this, but I discovered by chance that the government changed its guidance on 13th May, and dentists are now allowed to open. So are homeware shops (I have such a shop, and am planning to open tomorrow). Apparently Dunelm and Matalan are open.

Oh, and public toilets can open!

I have no idea why this has not been publicised: if I had not decided to check, I would never have known. Typical of the weird and dishonest way this government operates. I suspect dentists are unaware that they can open.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/further-businesses-and-premises-to-close/further-businesses-and-premises-to-close-guidance

12066 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to bluefreddy, 1, #466 of 623 🔗

Good news for England, but still closed up here…

12069 ▶▶▶▶ AnotherSceptic, replying to wendyk, 3, #467 of 623 🔗

wendyk, that is because Sturgeon is a twat. I am also in Scotland.

12080 ▶▶▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to AnotherSceptic, 1, #468 of 623 🔗

Agreed ,agreed! If only she would vanish

12086 ▶▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to bluefreddy, 4, #469 of 623 🔗

I didn’t know that – thank you! Even a trip to Dunhelm would raise my spirits a little – how sad is that! But I look forward to going round the one way system the wrong way and deliberately getting muddled in the check out queue and standing in the wrong spot 😉

12203 ▶▶▶▶ bluefreddy, replying to CarrieAH, 4, #470 of 623 🔗

My shop is only little, but when I open tomorrow, it will be its normal beautiful self.

12204 ▶▶▶▶ Margaret, replying to CarrieAH, 4, #471 of 623 🔗

OK so what’s going on? Have just visited our local Dunelm which apparently opened today (thanks to Bluefreddy for pointing me in the direction of that link re: places that could now open ). On the way there saw quite a lot of activity going on around car showrooms and the doors to two carpet shops and a flooring shop were open.
I’m with you bluefreddy. I want to know WHY these changes have been sneaked passed us and not been in plain view, so to speak. What is the thinking behind it?

12292 ▶▶▶ spelldispel, replying to bluefreddy, 1, #472 of 623 🔗

They can’t even get thier story straight, this is off the BBC live news feed at 17.27 today
When will dentists reopen?
Sir Patrick Vallance says there are “some risks” in professions like dentistry, because of close working. The government is working on guidance, he adds

12013 Nobody2020, 1, #473 of 623 🔗

This mornings observations/thoughts.

I posted this below but thought I’d bump it. It’s an interesting look at possible natural immunity. I’ve not fact checked it but it raises some interesting points to consider.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTFOsQfDFi8&fbclid=IwAR3_iVsYTz9xpK5RQy8T-UG-yldPRTj-3YiJRhaWSzTMfINVCX0Jru0vVIE

I’ve been thinking about why governments all over are continuing down the path they’ve taken. It made me think about “The Accused” with Jodie Foster where her character is gang raped by 3 men whilst onlookers encouraged and cheered.

To save me time here is the basic synopsis from Wikipedia:

At a local bar, Sarah Tobias (Jodie Foster) is gang raped by three men who are cheered and encouraged by onlookers. Based upon a lack of strong evidence, including Sarah’s own checkered past and her demeanor before the rape, Deputy district attorney Kathryn Murphy (Kelly McGillis) offers the three men a plea bargain to a lesser offense which, although having a similar sentencing range, would make them eligible for parole sooner. Enraged, Sarah feels betrayed by Murphy. Against advice of the District Attorney, Murphy prosecutes three onlookers for their solicitation in encouraging the other men to rape Sarah. At trial, Sarah is finally able to tell her story, but is unable to identify the onlookers. A conviction seems unlikely until the fraternity brother of one of the attackers testifies in a flashback as to what he recalls.

Sound familiar? The perpetrators could not be prosecuted due to lack of evidence and as long as they all stuck to the story they were safe. However the onlookers were considered equally guilty for not trying to stop it while it was happening.

12026 Sarigan, replying to Sarigan, 2, #474 of 623 🔗

Jeff can get a bit extreme with his views in some videos but interesting visit to Mexico City to see the hospitals and crematoriums in this one:

https://open.lbry.com/@DollarVigilante:b/Mexico-City-Expose:d

12075 ▶▶ Christopher, replying to Sarigan, 2, #475 of 623 🔗

Been watching the Dollar Vigilante for the last couple of weeks , he puts out some good stuff and i find the spoof satire helpful in lightening my mood during this insanity .
His piece on the Mexico City crematoria and the fake reporting on them ( burning day and night to cope with the corona death demand ) was excellent and shows what a sham this whole Sh#tshow ia.

12144 ▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to Sarigan, #476 of 623 🔗

Good hatchet job on Ferguson. Hurrah!

12027 swedenborg, 5, #477 of 623 🔗

A brilliant article from the Oxford Evidence Medicine Group.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-91-faulty-logic-distorted-perspectives/

12029 Schrodinger, replying to Schrodinger, 21, #478 of 623 🔗

Just to say that I have been fighting back on another website (just a hobby site specific site) by posting questioning posts in their new covid forum and on my status updates. Originally I got a lot of ‘kickback’ now I am getting more and more private messages from people saying that they agree with me. Just received this message from someone unknown to me

“We have had a death in the family from a pre-existing respiratory illness and frankly old age (93) and guess what the hospital have put on the death certificate despite two negative covid tests including one on the day she passed away?…their reasoning, the test isn’t 100% accurate.”

12050 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Schrodinger, 11, #479 of 623 🔗

There are so many of these stories. Almost everyone over the age of 69 is being Covided. It’s an absolute scandal. These families need to sue the gvt., the NHS, and the ONS.

12051 ▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Schrodinger, 2, #480 of 623 🔗

Son and his mates getting quite good at spotting the paid trolls now and have fun with them. One even asked “how did you know?”.

Keeps them amused as they are all high-end chefs or from the cruise ships so cannot go to work.

They also tell me that 19 crew members on various Royal caribbean ships have now committed suicide a steely cannot get off or go home.

They see quiet chuffed as they her changed 3 people from believer to unbelievers and more wavering.

12140 ▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to Awkward Git, #481 of 623 🔗

The thing about crew members is striking but is your predictive text playing havoc?

12030 Bella Donna, 16, #482 of 623 🔗

I just want to say I love this website. Its by far the best!

12039 swedenborg, replying to swedenborg, 7, #483 of 623 🔗

https://twitter.com/plaforscience/status/1261642688845225992/photo/1
“Spain’s daily death curve with @MLevitt_NP2013proposed Gompertz approximate. A water drop identical to the same water drop! Where’s the effect of the confinement?!!”
What does this show? The estado de alarma(lockdown) had no effect on deaths. The explosion of cases occurred earlier (black line) reached a roof then a logarithmic decline of deaths. Gompertz curve of death of Covid-19 not influenced by any social distancing as the invisible Covid-19 struck us before we knew anything.

12083 ▶▶ PFD, replying to swedenborg, 5, #484 of 623 🔗

https://figshare.com/articles/NHS_England_daily_death_data/12356867
Very similar plot for deaths in the UK based on the daily updated NHS England data. The deaths follow a classic Gompertz type model as suggested by Michael Levitt. There is no exponential growth phase. The peak death rate occurs on the 8th April. This implies peak infections around the 18th-19th March.

12095 ▶▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to PFD, 4, #485 of 623 🔗

This ties in with the large movement of students who were sent away from universities on weekend of March 14/15. Mine arrived home on 15 March and complained of loss of taste/smell, temperature raised (but no cough) a couple of days later. Two of his friends (same course and halls of residence) returned to their home countries, were tested on arrival, and both tested positive.

12100 ▶▶▶▶ PFD, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 5, #486 of 623 🔗

I gave my last lecture on the 13th. All face to face teaching stopped after that so many students returned home the weekend of the 14/15 March. All universities acted in concert and so widespread movement of students around the country and internationally.

12139 ▶▶ PFD, replying to swedenborg, 4, #487 of 623 🔗

https://figshare.com/articles/NHS_England_compared_with_Sweden_Covid19_epidemic/12357305
I’ve updated the plot to include both he English and Swedish mortality data on the same graph. In both cases the epidemic follows a classic Gompertz distribution as suggested by Michael Levitt. There is no exponential growth phase. Moreover the overall dynamics of the epidemic in both countries in terms of the rate of growth and decay are remarkably similar despite the countries having different approaches to social distancing.

12043 Moomin, replying to Moomin, 14, #488 of 623 🔗

Feeling very down about it all again today.

12046 ▶▶ AnotherSceptic, replying to Moomin, 13, #489 of 623 🔗

Try not to let it get you down Kevin, it’s frustrating I know, but things will turn, this cannot be kept up all this nonsense.

12082 ▶▶▶ Moomin, replying to AnotherSceptic, 14, #490 of 623 🔗

Thanks for the replies. I’ve just had one too many people ‘step back’ from me and talk of ‘new normal’ and ‘staying safe’ completely does my head in. I’ve seen people driving alone with masks on! How is it that you can’t normally go to the post office without removing your motorcycle helmet but now you can wear a bandanna or a face mask?! It’s nuts! Doesn’t help that I couldn’t sleep again last night. When will this nation come to its senses!

12107 ▶▶▶▶ James007, replying to Moomin, 7, #491 of 623 🔗

Yes. It’s the opposite of the Blitz experience isn’t it? That was genuinely terrifying. Incredible to see the photos of people huddled together in underground stations. Not a virus outbreak, which is not especially unusual or severe. In human history. But aparently we cant cope with having dentists open, educationing children or getting haircuts, or interacting with others in general.

I like to come on this site and see that all sorts of people agreeing that this is nuts trying to challenge it in various ways.

12124 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to AnotherSceptic, 2, #492 of 623 🔗

True – but the coming consequences cannot be stopped now. We have hit the iceberg and now the icy water awaits.

12054 ▶▶ James007, replying to Moomin, 16, #493 of 623 🔗

Yes me too. This has been a total disaster. I’ve gone through more mental trauma these past few weeks than I did when my father died.
There’s hope in that lots of people know this is nonsense, and that some day life will carry on, and that the future will be better.

12056 ▶▶ Awkward Git, replying to Moomin, 13, #494 of 623 🔗

Find a troll to annoy on a website or in the Daily Mail comments – cheers me up no end.

The Daily mail claims there is no moderation but there is. I’ve found sometime I need to very the wording 4 or 5 times before the comment is posted but getting better at sneaking them through.

Putting questions on gov.uk/ask helps my mental wellbeing too.

Or sitting in the garden with the son who is stuck here “talking” with the believer neighbour earwigging from behind the fence and harrumphing regularly – but she must be taking it in as last weekend she had a family birthday BBQ and now she has gardeners in doing work.

Don’t let the bastards grind you down.

12081 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Moomin, 13, #495 of 623 🔗

Absolutely understand that Kevin. I get very bad days, hours, when frankly there seems little point in going on, can’t see any sort of decent future ahead, and with today’s new body blow about quarantine it means I can’t go to see my family in Greece.
But thanks to Toby we have this website, where we know we can discuss it all rationally and support each other without being verbally abused and called murderers simply for wanting to live our lives in peace. This little corner of the Internet has become my rock, so thank you to each and every one of you.

12115 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Moomin, 5, #496 of 623 🔗

I sympathise with you as sometimes I fear for my own mind.

12123 ▶▶ IanE, replying to Moomin, 4, #497 of 623 🔗

Me too!

12131 ▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to Moomin, 3, #498 of 623 🔗

Shifting paradigms don’t come easy. You can feel pretty down climbing Everest at some points. Keep going.

12160 ▶▶▶ James007, replying to Nigel Baldwin, #499 of 623 🔗

Have you climbed Everest? Impressed if you have 🙂

12211 ▶▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to James007, 2, #500 of 623 🔗

‘Fraid not. Did run a marathon though – same applies. Wanted to jack it in after ten miles. Carried on but pretty down for the next ten.

12048 Awkward Git, replying to Awkward Git, 23, #501 of 623 🔗

Found this quote from Jung, sums it up really:

It is becoming more and more obvious that it is not starvation, it is not microbes, it is not cancer, but man himself who is his greatest danger: because he has no adequate protection against psychic epidemics, which are are infinitely more devastating in their effect than the greatest natural catastrophes.

12079 ▶▶ wendyk, replying to Awkward Git, 3, #502 of 623 🔗

Jung was wise and an exemplar of the educational standards of his day-I’ve read several of his works-qualities sadly lacking today.

12049 Farinances, replying to Farinances, 7, #503 of 623 🔗

Guys, don’t try to help an old lady across the road with her bags.

If looks could kill!

12057 ▶▶ James007, replying to Farinances, 10, #504 of 623 🔗

How could you! The moral thing to do is to entirely ignore old ladies, preferably cross the road to avoid them.

12219 ▶▶ ianp, replying to Farinances, 2, #505 of 623 🔗

Age is also no barrier to sheephood I might add…

12055 wendyk, replying to wendyk, 26, #506 of 623 🔗

A slightly surreal telephone conversation with an old friend: her ear is blocked-all syringing cancelled; she has a probable gum infection at the base of a dental implant and a minor eye infection, all of which are causing discomfort, anxiety and affecting her confidence when she goes for her daily walk.

Despite all this, she was adamant that lives must be saved, so we must continue to follow the rules, incoherent and ill thought out as they are.

I pointed out that lives were being put on hold, destroyed, impoverished by the house arrests and that suicides, depression, hardship, unemployment, lack of education, general insecurity and loss of hope, combined with the removal of essential services like dentistry, cancer screening, opticians’ appointments etc are having a devastating effect on our society and that of many others and that this cannot go on.

No she said, lives must be saved and we need the vaccine.

We had to agree to differ but this is a reflection of prevailing attitudes,even amongst well educated people.

12067 ▶▶ Mark, replying to wendyk, 13, #507 of 623 🔗

It really is liking talking to a brick wall, isn’t it, some of the time?

Then again there are the few cases you get a thoughtful response, or read here about one someone else got, and that gives you renewed hope.

12077 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Mark, 3, #508 of 623 🔗

Each time I put the consequences of all this to her, together with some of the truly troubling accounts which have appeared here-anonymised of course- she just kept repeating that it was killing people and that lives must be saved.

The hopeful response was that related in my earlier comment, when Mr Concerned Citizen calmed down and entered into a polite discussion.

12121 ▶▶▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to wendyk, 5, #509 of 623 🔗

She sounds utterly brainwashed!

12098 ▶▶ Margaret, replying to wendyk, 9, #510 of 623 🔗

One positive and one negative experience this morning.

Went to our local Asda, saw the big queue and announced to my husband that I was not prepared to join it and would go somewhere else instead. A man in a nearby car heard me and shouted that he had been waiting for his wife for nearly an hour. We got talking. It seems he is desperate to get back to work (not sure what he does but it was a job that required someone to assist him sometimes) can’t visit his mother in sheltered accommodation and said he could understand the situation if we were dealing with Ebola but not for the equivalent of a bad “flu “ . I pointed him in the direction of this website.

Next stop, a huge Tesco with masses of space and wide aisles. I found myself committing the cardinal sin of going “up” a “down” aisle. An oldish bloke pointed out the error of my ways to me and said that the arrows had been there for ages. I thanked him as profusely as I could for pointing this out to me (not sure he got the sarcasm). Had I been quicker to react, I should have pointed out that viruses, just like me, don’t follow one way systems!

12128 ▶▶▶ A13, replying to Margaret, 11, #511 of 623 🔗

I wear big headphones in the supermarket and pretend that I don’t hear anyone trying to instruct me – most of the time I can’t actually hear them because I have Spotify on full blast. It works 100% of the time and keeps me sane. What are they gonna do when you don’t comply with their stupid rules and don’t follow arrows?
I also pretend not to hear complains coming from people wearing masks when I come very close to them. I’m not gonna be dancing around them to keep the 2m – they can stay at home if they don’t like it.
Don’t follow rules that don’t make any sense.

12155 ▶▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to A13, 5, #512 of 623 🔗

Exactly thus is what I do, I only remove them when I want to say something.
If they wanted to challenge you, they would have to physically grab you or get right up in your face – and that’s not social distancing! 😆

12168 ▶▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to A13, 6, #513 of 623 🔗

They have those arrows too my local M&S and no-one follows them. That said I shake my head when I see the masked zombies – today one of them glared at me and I glared back to the point that she quickly looked away.

12102 ▶▶ Gossamer, replying to wendyk, 10, #514 of 623 🔗

wendyk – what you describe is, in many ways, the most terrifying thing of all. Even when people’s own lives are being blighted by this insane policy, they will insist it is the right thing to do. Is it because the very notion that it might all have been in vain, and that the politicians whose role is to serve us are nothing but a bunch of dangerous morons, is just too unbearable for them to contemplate?

12129 ▶▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to Gossamer, 6, #515 of 623 🔗

This is why people so often dismiss minority or more sinister theories as ‘conspiracy’. To have to admit that you were actually conned is too much to bear for most. No one wants to think they were naive enough to be scammed.

12152 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Gossamer, 4, #516 of 623 🔗

I think it’s the ‘ostrich syndrome’ Goassamer: head in sand, especially if relatively protected by pension income, decent hoem, own garden etc.

Try as I might to emphasise the wasted lives and hopes of the young, I could not persuade her to accept the untold damage that this lunacy is causing.

12153 ▶▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to wendyk, 1, #517 of 623 🔗

typo-decent home…..

12172 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to wendyk, 3, #518 of 623 🔗

Unfortunately talking to people like your friend is like trying to get blood out of a stone. I’ve come across people I know who are like that as well and no amount of reason and logic seems to sway them.

12180 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Bart Simpson, 3, #519 of 623 🔗

Reason has flown away, to be replaced by confected compliance, emotional incontinence and conspicuous compassion.
Independent thought, critical enquiry and disputation are written off as unacceptable callous obstinacy.

12213 ▶▶ ianp, replying to wendyk, 1, #520 of 623 🔗

Baa….. is that a sheep noise I hear?

12065 swedenborg, 1, #521 of 623 🔗

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid19-what-we-all-wrong-thomas-wilckens-%E6%89%98%E9%A6%AC%E6%96%AF-/
An interesting very long discussion about almost everything controversial in the pandemic.

12070 RDawg, replying to RDawg, 28, #522 of 623 🔗

Last night I stumbled across an interview with Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist for Sweden, on BBC Hard Talk.

I say “interview” but the BBC journalist Steven Sackur basically attacked and attacked him with his naive, arrogant and pre-conceived ideas that Dr Tegnell was some sort of mass murderer who did not care about the people in his country.

This is the problem with the mainstream media. It’s no longer about open, unbiased discussion (as we have with Freddie Sayers on UnHerd, a breath of fresh air) but instead it’s about choosing an ignorant narrative and then running with it, despite the plethora of evidence to the contrary.

I abhor so-called journalists like this. They interrupt, don’t let their interviewees speak, and ask leading, tainted questions. They do not give people a chance to speak openly. To think this rubbish is paid for by licence payers’ money. 🤦🏻‍♂️

12074 ▶▶ Mark, replying to RDawg, 13, #523 of 623 🔗

We’re a long, long way from a society in which reporters and editors thought their job was to convey information in a neutral manner and leave their viewers and readers to make up their own minds.

That went out the window decades ago, as supposedly not morally interventionist or revolutionary enough. As one small illustration, consider the BBC/mainstream approach of referring to governments of disapproved forms not as “governments” but as “regimes”. It’s important, you see, to convey an approved moral judgement along with the information.

12084 ▶▶ AN other lockdown sceptic, replying to RDawg, 10, #524 of 623 🔗

Robin Aitken’s book The Noble Liar about the BBC is pretty good https://tinyurl.com/y8e5h52d

Reading it was the final push I needed to ignore the MSM, and the BBC in particular, a couple of years ago.

The BBC will hopefully die and not because older folk like me refuse to watch their activist drivel. Its because the younger generation simply doesn’t watch any MSM.

I suspect though that being on message with the outrage ‘safety at all costs’ herd and the Gov during this will have sadly bought them a (temporary) stay of execution.

12089 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to AN other lockdown sceptic, 3, #525 of 623 🔗

Thanks I’ll pick that one up – says released on 28th, presumably you had a pre-release copy.

I always check out the negative reviews before buying anything, and I see one that’s headed: “Right-wing anti-BBC propaganda from a Conservative, now there’s a surprise”. That sold it to me.

Your tinyurl link didn’t work for me, though.

12099 ▶▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to Mark, 4, #526 of 623 🔗

Lol I read anything and everything that is lambasted as ‘right wing polemic’ by today’s squealing ‘left’.
It’s usually a mark of good sense.

12105 ▶▶▶▶ AN other lockdown sceptic, replying to Mark, #527 of 623 🔗

I must have gone out of print/stock as I read it, which says something in itself!

Robin Aitken interview here for a taster https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aucDmK5E4bU

12087 ▶▶ TJN, replying to RDawg, 11, #528 of 623 🔗

Yes, Freddie Sayers has been a hero of the lockdown – not because of his anti-lockdown views (if any), but because of his eagerness to get at the truth and let interviewees speak for themselves. A proper journalist.

12092 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to TJN, 4, #529 of 623 🔗

He has put out some great interviews – both good choice of interview subjects and, as you say, a very good, respectful and intelligent interview technique.

12195 ▶▶▶▶ TJN, replying to Mark, #530 of 623 🔗

Lets hope the BBC don’t snap him up. Not that they’d want him I guess.

12094 ▶▶▶ Farinances, replying to TJN, 5, #531 of 623 🔗

I still don’t know what his views actually are.

Because he’s a journalist not an activist.

(Not that journalists can’t have opinions. They just have to be clear about what is an opinion and what isn’t and stop treating their own opinions as if they’re the story. And more importantly SHUT UP- Their opinion is not more important than what any interviewee has to say for themselves)

12097 ▶▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Farinances, 4, #532 of 623 🔗

“I still don’t know what his views actually are.”

As you suggest – a very good sign.

12104 ▶▶ Mike Smith, replying to RDawg, 3, #533 of 623 🔗

Have you read either of the two books about the BBC by David Sedgwick? He shows in detail, in case after case, how bad they are. Worse than I had realised.
BBC: Brainwashing Britain? and The Fake News Factory.

12191 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Mike Smith, 1, #534 of 623 🔗

No, it’s a few years since I looked at this issue. Let’s try the negative review test for the latest one, The Fake News Factory:

MR. IMRANUL HAQ
1.0 out of 5 stars Utter tosh
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 17 May 2020
More fake news from Segdewick, Trump, Putin and the Telegraph. UTTER TOSH.

That’s good enough for me. Bought, for Kindle.

Thanks for the heads up.

12256 ▶▶▶▶ Mike Smith, replying to Mark, #535 of 623 🔗

Excellent system!

12137 ▶▶ guy153, replying to RDawg, 5, #536 of 623 🔗

That’s why it was so good to see Sumption demolishing that silly woman from the BBC.

12088 Guirme, replying to Guirme, 16, #537 of 623 🔗

In Eurpoe’s most locked down country (Scotland) our magnanimous leader has told us that we are not allowed to drive for more than 5 miles from our home. How generous! Has she ever looked at a map of Scotland and noticed that most of it is very rural, with the nearest shop often well over 5 miles away? she is of course an MSP for a Glasgow constituency with apparently little recognotion of the physical reality of the country she supposedly leads.

This does raise the interesting question of whether the 5 mile rule is legally enforceable or is it just a recomendation. Does anyone know?

12119 ▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to Guirme, 14, #538 of 623 🔗

If nothing else what Covid has done is to allow people like Sturgeon and Hancock demonstrate how bonkers they are.

12122 ▶▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 8, #539 of 623 🔗

Not to mention divorced from reality and living in La-La Land.

12127 ▶▶ Jane in France, replying to Guirme, 9, #540 of 623 🔗

I’ve just been speaking to a friend in Scotland who really does go out and clap for the NHS every Thursday. Then everybody in the street brings out a bottle of wine and all the neighbours have their own garden party. She’s a bit like Polyanna, my friend, and thinks it’s great to meet so many new people. Did she know that in the flu season from December 2014 – March 2015 there were 22,011 registered deaths in Scotland which works out at 5,503 per month? “What, over 5000 deaths a month?” says she in disbelief. So far 3,546 people have died from (with?) covid in Scotland between mid March and mid May which works out at 1,773 per month, three quarters of them over the age of 75. . My friend was going out for a walk when I rang. I hope she ponders that 5000 a month figure and I hope it spoils her walk.

12147 ▶▶▶ wendyk, replying to Jane in France, 2, #541 of 623 🔗

Which is more or less what I said to my lockdown loving friend Jane; see below somewhere

12159 ▶▶ Alison, replying to Guirme, 5, #542 of 623 🔗

Have emailed my MSP asking precisely this, and pointing out that the lack of clarity is really unacceptable given we’re all being deprived of basic liberties. My sense is it will be a recommendation since at present it’s not unlawful to drive longer than that for any reasonable purposes for which one is permitted out the house. But, as usual, even if unenforceable, will be presented by government and much of media as a question of what we are “allowed” to do, instead of as guidance which we are all quite free to ignore.

12108 Adele Bull, replying to Adele Bull, 7, #543 of 623 🔗

So healthy people with no symptoms will have to isolate for 14 days from 1st June in case they are a carrier according to Matt Hancock 🤷‍♀️ 😳

12112 ▶▶ A13, replying to Adele Bull, 15, #544 of 623 🔗

Someone should stop this clown from talking to the press. Every time he opens his mouth it’s just compete bollocks.

12135 ▶▶▶ Adele Bull, replying to A13, 1, #545 of 623 🔗

🤣 👍

12114 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Adele Bull, 11, #546 of 623 🔗

Well I won’t be doing that as my livestock would starve. The man is a complete idiot. And why does he always wear the same tie? Does he sleep in it?!

12136 ▶▶▶ guy153, replying to CarrieAH, 9, #547 of 623 🔗

Someone should tell him how long coronaviruses can survive on a tie for.

12164 ▶▶▶ A HUG IS HEALTH, replying to CarrieAH, 1, #548 of 623 🔗

I would wager none of them get much sleep.

12116 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Adele Bull, 14, #549 of 623 🔗

He really needs to go and as a bonus should be punished alongside Neil Ferguson and the MSM for the damaged he has inflicted on this country and its people.

12125 ▶▶▶ A13, replying to Bart Simpson, 11, #550 of 623 🔗

and be banned for life from any work in public service

12150 ▶▶ SRagdoll, replying to Adele Bull, 2, #551 of 623 🔗

What abou these ‘game changer’ tests, maybe we could just use some of these instead of quaranting healthy people!

12151 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to Adele Bull, 8, #552 of 623 🔗

Yeah not happening. I’ll go about my business unless I’m ill thanks.

Suck my dick Matt – I don’t have one and it’s still bigger than yours.

12165 ▶▶ James007, replying to Adele Bull, 4, #553 of 623 🔗

I dont understand. Haven’t we already been self isolating for several weeks?

12244 ▶▶ karate56, replying to Adele Bull, 2, #554 of 623 🔗

He doesn’t know what he’s doing. Being as fair as possible to him, he just isn’t clever enough, aware enough, politically savvy, have any common sense, to be anywhere near politics, let alone health secretary.
He simply doesn’t know how society, for the 99% of us works. You could sit him down and go over the details of all his mentally impaired plans and even if he tried his best, the flaws still wouldn’t sink in. He is of the ilk of a 1st world war commander who has never been in battle but sends countless men to pointless deaths because he thinks he knows best.
There is a historical belief that so called elite classes should govern over us mere worthless runts. This man though, out of all of them, is the very last person you’d want in any position of power. He is, without doubt, further up his own arse than the worlds longest colonoscope could ever reach.

12118 Bella Donna, replying to Bella Donna, 11, #555 of 623 🔗

Coronavirus does not spread easily on surfaces, say US experts.

This is the sort of contradictory statements we now hear. Originally coronavirus could remain on surfaces for up to 3 days and now this. How can we believe anything the experts say?

12120 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Bella Donna, 5, #556 of 623 🔗

Just the word “expert” or “scientist” has me running screaming in the opposite direction now.

12141 ▶▶ PFD, replying to Bella Donna, 2, #557 of 623 🔗

https://figshare.com/articles/NHS_England_compared_with_Sweden_Covid19_epidemic/12357305
I’ve included an updated plot that compares England and Sweden mortality data during the progress of the epidemic. Data for both countries follow a classic Gompertz function with essentially the same dynamics with respect to the rate of growth and decay of the virus as witnessed by the upper plot.

12318 ▶▶ paulito, replying to Bella Donna, #558 of 623 🔗

Typical coid zombie “Doesn’t spread on surfaces you say. This means I must start wearing gloves”.

12134 RDawg, replying to RDawg, 29, #559 of 623 🔗

Hi all,

Just had a 27 minute conversation with my local MP, Munira Wilson. I have to say, I felt it was very productive and she did listen to my views. She had clearly read both my letters, and arguments put forward.

Though we were not able to agree on the efficacy of lockdowns (she feels we should have tracked and traced very early on, as did some Asian countries such as South Korea, and potentially locked down much earlier), she did concede the huge plethora of problems the lockdown is doing to our country – economic, social, educational and mental health consequences. She also said that as a liberal, she was not comfortable with many of the laws and restrictions that were being imposed on us by the government.

In conclusion, I felt I was able to put my arguments forward as succinctly and rationally as possible. I have made my point, with science-based evidence, and I feel that at the very least a seed has been sown in her mind. Political opinions aside, I will always respect her for giving me a good chunk of her time, listening to me properly, and for allowing me to openly express my views. That is all one can ask for I guess.

I finished on a positive note, and suggested that following what Sunetra Gupta says in her recent interview, this pandemic should be largely over (in the UK at least) by the end of June/early July. For the sake of us all, I hope Prof. Gupta is right. I suspect she is.

If anyone has had any success in contacting their local MP, please try and push for a phone-call. It will make a difference and that is what they were elected to do. To hear our views and represent their constituents.

Have a good weekend everyone!
R Dawg

12138 ▶▶ Mark, replying to RDawg, 4, #560 of 623 🔗

Well done!

12149 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to RDawg, 6, #561 of 623 🔗

Good for you man. I’m still plugging away at the emails but it’s not happening. Maybe a few phone calls would be better

12163 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to RDawg, 5, #562 of 623 🔗

Good on you. Am just putting the finishing touches to my email to my MP (which is based on yours).

12143 PFD, replying to PFD, 6, #563 of 623 🔗

https://figshare.com/articles/NHS_England_compared_with_Sweden_Covid19_epidemic/12357305

Apologies for serial posting. I inadvertently put the same link below! I’ve added a plot that compares NHS England data with Swedish mortality data during the progress of the epidemic. Data for both countries follows a Gompertz function distribution and with essentially the same dynamics with regard to the growth and decay of the epidemic as evidenced by the gradient plot (the upper of the three graphs in the panel).

12162 ▶▶ guy153, replying to PFD, 1, #564 of 623 🔗

Wow that is a very close match!

12148 Mark, 11, #565 of 623 🔗

UK borrowing at record high as virus cost soars in April

Of course, the cost is overwhelmingly the cost of the chosen lockdown response, not of the virus.

12185 ▶▶ Victoria, replying to Markus, #567 of 623 🔗

Think this Foundation is run as a non profit organisation. Why would a non profit with all the tax advantages invest in a private organisation?

12156 SRagdoll, replying to SRagdoll, 25, #568 of 623 🔗

Having a bad day today. A serious case of anti-lockdown rage. I just can’tget my head round the continued narrative of impending doom that flies in the face of the actual data is just insanity and the lack of outrage against the continued trashing of the economy and freedom.

12225 ▶▶ Saved To Death, replying to SRagdoll, 5, #569 of 623 🔗

I think I know how you feel. How can this go on – I don’t wish to be a part of this world but I have children so no choice but to try and make it better.

12158 Mark, replying to Mark, 21, #570 of 623 🔗

From near disaster to success story: how Japan has tackled coronavirus

A little over a month ago, health experts were saying Japan risked becoming one of the world’s coronavirus “disaster zones”.

Hmm. A country which didn’t lockdown and the usual bedwetting suspects hysterically warned there would be a calamity if they didn’t follow us over the cliff of lockdown.

And they didn’t.

And there wasn’t.

Where have we seen that before?

Of course, no sign of the slightest trace of shame or honesty in the Guardian coverage.

How are we ever going to hold these people to account for what they have inflicted on our country?

12312 ▶▶ paulito, replying to Mark, 1, #571 of 623 🔗

No suprise theGuardian display no shameor honesty. When the truth comes out the shameless frauds willprobably claim they were always lockdown sceptics.

12166 Sarigan, replying to Sarigan, #572 of 623 🔗

Does anyone use https://bookshlf.com/ ? I was thinking of compiling a lasting list of relevant articles, videos, podcasts etc. as one point of reference and to look back on whichever way this unfolds. Just wondering if anyone has any comments on the service.

12175 ▶▶ Snake Oil Pussy, replying to Sarigan, #573 of 623 🔗

Does it store a copy of the content in case the original gets moved or taken down? If so I will use it.

12169 Gillian, #574 of 623 🔗

I’ve been following the daily videos of this gutsy and fearless US woman for several weeks, even before finding this website. Keeps me sane.

https://youtu.be/HeAl4Bedlks

12170 Hammer Onats, replying to Hammer Onats, 14, #575 of 623 🔗

Looks as though Chief Constable Livingstone has put Sturgeon back in her box about enforcing her “rules”. In response to a question, he said Police would not be checking to see if citizens stuck to Sturgeon’s “rule” to travel no more than 5 miles. I suspect the CC is well aware that the Nuremberg defence will not work when it comes to the public enquiry.

12176 ▶▶ Bob, replying to Hammer Onats, #576 of 623 🔗

Do you have a link for that?

12178 ▶▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to Bob, 2, #577 of 623 🔗

Sturgeon has confirmed that’s the case. Top story on Scotsman online. The CC answered the Daily Mail question at today’s briefing. An edited transcript in on the BBC website.

12177 ▶▶ wendyk, replying to Hammer Onats, 2, #578 of 623 🔗

Good news

12202 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Hammer Onats, 5, #579 of 623 🔗

It is always heartening to hear the Police talking some sense occasionally. They did in England too when they firmly said they couldn’t enforce the distancing rules because they are ministerial guidelines, not laws. I guess the same applies in this case.

12174 AidanR, replying to AidanR, 10, #580 of 623 🔗

It reassuring to know that, in all this, some things don’t change.

Just got my regular update from TV Licensing on all the ways they plan to try screwing me for not having a licence.

I wonder if Capita’s tellytax simians are deemed an essential service. Actually… I don’t think I need wonder.

12200 ▶▶ Farinances, replying to AidanR, 3, #581 of 623 🔗

Looks like I’m gonna have to start watching those TV licence goon videos next year when they finally realise I’ve sacked them off

12250 ▶▶ MiriamW-sometimes-AlanG, replying to AidanR, 3, #582 of 623 🔗

#Ustoo. A lot of people think it’s the government but it’s Crapita on contract to carry out harrassment of anyone exercising their right not to purchase something. Can anyone think of anything else where this applies? Don’t hold your breath, the Track and Trace contracts will already have been drawn up. . . .

The monthly letters hike up the threat level until finally they say they have opened a court case (they haven’t). A vulnerable person would find them very frightening. The cycle then begins again. We haven’t had a TV for 15 years but still the amusing letters keep coming. We once tried letting them know we didn’t have a telly but after about 2 years the letters just start up again. We now ignore them as we reckon we only need to contact them in the unlikely event of us buying a new TV.

They have only been round once and my husband said, ‘Just go away’ (commendable control of his language 🙂 ) – and they did!

12183 Tyneside Tigress, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 3, #583 of 623 🔗

Just noticed this on Mail online. From memory, ZeroHedge trailed it last week, so apologies if someone posted the original coverage. Author of the report at JP Morgan is a ‘quant’ strategist and very highly regarded. Interesting that it has made the mainstream papers. My gut feel is there has been something of a shift in the MSM over the last 24-48 hours – hope I am right:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8347635/Lockdowns-failed-alter-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html

12212 ▶▶ mark baker, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 5, #584 of 623 🔗

I’d always assumed that the Tory Party and the Tory Press did whatever rich people told them to. Not sure how that explains the current situation. There must be a lot of rich people – traditional Tory bankrollers – who’ve lost shedloads of money because of the lockdown. Not sure why their voices haven’t been heard so far. Maybe this JP Morgan study is the first salvo?

12222 ▶▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to mark baker, #585 of 623 🔗

Agree – that’s what I would have thought too. Kolanovic is NY-based though, so he is playing to a different base.

12245 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to mark baker, 1, #586 of 623 🔗

The problem with that viewpoint is that we currently have a socialist-lite (or not-so-lite, much of the time) government. Oh, for another Maggie: our country needs her back!

12218 ▶▶ Gillian, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 7, #587 of 623 🔗

If you look at the Comments to the Daily Mail article and put them in order by “highest rated first”, the highly rated comments are overwhelmingly that the lockdown has done nothing but damage the economy…hugely. The Mail, and other MSM, will be anxiously watching the flow of public opinion. Mail still hedging their bets, though. They will come round.

12184 Mark, replying to Mark, 5, #588 of 623 🔗

Peter Hitchens on good form, dryly ripping the government a new one, with casual derision:

Sophy Ridge Sky News 21st May 2020 – Press Preview with Peter Hitchens and Alison Morris, 10.30pm

12193 ▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to Mark, 1, #589 of 623 🔗

I watched it last night. He was very good – even the other reviewer couldn’t help smiling at times. What amazed me, was why he was invited, as I do not recall seeing him on there before. With the exception of Brendan O’Neill, Claire Fox and Carole Malone, it is usually a Progressives love-in.

12197 ▶▶▶ Mark, replying to Tyneside Tigress, 1, #590 of 623 🔗

Yes, the other reviewer seemed like a pretty vacuous cookie-cutter mainstreamer, but Hitchens managed to avoid alienating her at least in this section. I’ve not watched the show before so I’ll take your word for Hitchens being an outlier on the show. Hopefully they’ll have him back.

12205 ▶▶▶▶ Tyneside Tigress, replying to Mark, 3, #591 of 623 🔗

There have been some classics over the years: Julia Hartley-Brewer vs Owen Jones, Milo vs Jenny Kleeman, and Brendan vs Christina Patterson. I should get out more!

12187 Awkward Git, replying to Awkward Git, 38, #592 of 623 🔗

Ted Nugent summed it up well a few days ago:

“Why do I have to stay home just because you are scared? How about you stay home… you stay in your house indefinitely, you wear a mask, you socially distance yourself from me, you avoid restaurants, you avoid baseball games, you stay off the roads, you avoid malls and beaches and parks, you believe the made up death numbers, you believe the media hype, you get your toxic vaccine while avoiding vitamin C, sunshine and the things God gave us to actually heal, –

I’m done playing your dumb game. We are not “all in this together.” I’m not wearing your dumb tin foil hat anymore. I’m no longer going to be a prisoner of your fear. I’m no longer staying in my house or catering to you because you are scared. I’m not wearing a mask and I’m not staying 6 feet away from you anymore because I’m not afraid of you. You are not my enemy and if I get sick, it’s not because of you, it’s because of me and my system, which not only have I been addressing for quite some time, but I also know how to treat if I get sick.

This virus (or whatever it is) is already circulating. Millions of people have already encountered it, as it’s been circulating around the world probably since last September. You WILL have to confront this thing, if you haven’t already. There is no way around it, unless you lock yourself up in your house and it somehow doesn’t manage to hop on some mail or some groceries that you ordered online. Your fear is not an excuse to destroy America. Your fear is not my fear and your fear does not have the right to interfere with my life, my job, my income or my future as a free American citizen. So if you’re scared, you can just put your tin foil hat on, or even wrap foil all around your whole body – or around your whole house if you wish – but please keep your fear contained to your little corner of the world and don’t contaminate me or my family or my Country.

Pity it’s too long to get on a T-Shirt.

12194 ▶▶ wendyk, replying to Awkward Git, 6, #593 of 623 🔗

For T- shirt : the lockdown kills

12196 ▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to Awkward Git, 1, #594 of 623 🔗

That is brilliant.

12208 ▶▶ bluefreddy, replying to Awkward Git, 1, #595 of 623 🔗

Wonderful!

12216 ▶▶ Bella Donna, replying to Awkward Git, 3, #596 of 623 🔗

That is brilliant! Frankly if it were only possible to segregate the bedwetters from the rest of us what a wonderful world it would be.

12248 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to Awkward Git, 1, #597 of 623 🔗

Brilliant and well said!!!

12207 wendyk, replying to wendyk, 3, #598 of 623 🔗

https://www.effiedeans.com/2020/05/jockdown.html

Good read for all up here who don’t belong to the cult

12210 ▶▶ Gillian, replying to wendyk, 2, #599 of 623 🔗

If I had the words and could write, that’s exactly what I would write today. Why don’t the cult members see through Sturgeon and her coterie? My blood pressure is rising just thinking of these awful people.

12224 ▶▶▶ Hammer Onats, replying to Gillian, 5, #600 of 623 🔗

The Nat fanatics are like the lockdown zealots. No matter how much evidence is put in front of them about Sturgeon and her government’s incompetence they simply ignore it. Independence transcends all, as Sturgeon once said.

12240 ▶▶▶▶ Biker, replying to Hammer Onats, 6, #601 of 623 🔗

SNP droogs are like Scientologists in that they don’t know what the leaders are doing but worship them anyway. Any time i meet a SNP supporter and i’m Pictish from Fife so have no love for Scots i always tell them i’ll give you fifty quid right now if apart from Independence name one single policy of theirs, so far not a single one of them has ever been able to. The people who vote for them live in a delusion that once Scotland is independent we’ll all get free haggis, whisky and Bag Pipe lessons. I despise them with more than a passion

12241 ▶▶▶▶ IanE, replying to Hammer Onats, #602 of 623 🔗

Quite – and then there’s the global warming fanatics: equally culty!

12215 Nigel Baldwin, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 25, #603 of 623 🔗

When this is all over and we’re crawling through the debris and we’re being taxed (directly and indirectly, including a wealth tax) into relative poverty can people please remember this is our government stealing our money because they made an inept, even criminal, decision. I lost half my pension pot in 2008 (never recovered) which was there to pay off my mortgage. But, hey wait, was I that careless? Did I lose it or was it stolen from me?

12221 ▶▶ AidanR, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 3, #604 of 623 🔗

Oh yes…. the point has to be made repeatedly and forcefully.

12220 Snake Oil Pussy, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 4, #605 of 623 🔗

Ikea is reopening, according to the Guardian 45 minutes ago.
Can we expect them to be followed by Volvo dealers, Abba tribute acts, and a resumption of Greta Thunberg’s climate protests?

12226 ▶▶ Mark, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 2, #606 of 623 🔗

Ooh, I feel better already…

12239 ▶▶▶ IanE, replying to Mark, 1, #607 of 623 🔗

What’s in a vowel? I feel bitter already!

12235 ▶▶ Biker, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 4, #608 of 623 🔗

Greta won’t have to worry about social distancing because her and her parents always look to me like they don’t take a shower of a morning. A wee bit slack on the old personal hygiene probably avoiding deodorant because it’s bad for lama’s or something. You just know that environmental types are that way because they’re lazy and they hate productive people who take responsibility for themselves and provide for their families. That’s why they are trying to turn us all into sack cloth wearing peasants without so much as a plastic bottle to recycle

12276 ▶▶ paulito, replying to Snake Oil Pussy, 1, #609 of 623 🔗

Ikea, Pioneer of the one way system in shops.

12223 Biker, replying to Biker, 22, #610 of 623 🔗

I want the football back on the Moto GP, the F1, the pubs open, stop the queuing and the social distancing has to go. If someone says to me you’re not social distancing, as they said to me today, i tell them to shut their f*cking mouth and go home and hide. I owe you nothing and yet here you are demanding i do what you say. How about you do what i say and piss off. I’m adopting this extreme response because i don’t think the corona cowards realise how bad it is and how much we’re suffering and how much we need to get back to normality. I won’t be quiet or respectful i’ll be antagonistic from now on.

12229 ▶▶ AidanR, replying to Biker, 6, #611 of 623 🔗

Amen, guy… I’m reaching the point of abject apoplexy at the sheer stupidity and destruction being visited upon us.

12230 ▶▶▶ CarrieAH, replying to AidanR, 9, #612 of 623 🔗

Anger seems to be my middle name at the moment. Everything I read about this nonsense foisted upon us makes me insanely angry. The good part about that I suppose, is that I’m not just sitting indoors accepting it.

12231 AidanR, replying to AidanR, 5, #613 of 623 🔗

Anyone know if there are anymore demos or mass gatherings this weekend? We HAVE to get out there and make our anger, disgust and distress known to the powers that be!

12242 ▶▶ Snake Oil Pussy, replying to AidanR, 1, #614 of 623 🔗
12233 A13, replying to A13, 1, #615 of 623 🔗

‘Independent SAGE’ claims children have more chance of dying of coronavirus than a road traffic accident if they are sent to school on June 1
Look how lucky we are, we have two Sage’s now, we need more experts!

12236 ▶▶ A13, replying to A13, 5, #616 of 623 🔗

Independent Sage have a website with a contact form. Maybe we should send them some nice messages to say what we think about their ‘science’?
http://www.independentsage.org/

12246 ▶▶ Bart Simpson, replying to A13, 4, #617 of 623 🔗

AAAAARRRGGGGGGHHHHH!!!!

12247 kh1485, replying to kh1485, 13, #618 of 623 🔗

I’m afraid my well of humour has finally dried up. Had some toss-pott woman in my shop just now telling me that the ruination of my business was a price worth paying for people to be safe. I referred to this in an earlier post so won’t rant on about it here.

A few of you may recall a couple of weeks ago I took the piss out of the vacuous pebble monument to the NHS that had been placed outside our parish hall. I even placed my own pebble with a message about liberty and freedom. I walked past there today and it has been removed. Not something to get unduly exercised about you may think. But I walk past this vacuous pile of shit on the way to the graveyard where my mum is buried. And she is there because of the NHS. And then on a Thursday, I have my nose further rubbed in this crap by having to endure the sound of people clapping it. And then, as if this bloated behemoth hadn’t ruined my life enough, my business has been trashed on the altar of political expediency.

I am sorry, I have tried with humour to get through this but today I just feel competely and utterly done in.

12253 ▶▶ Nigel Baldwin, replying to kh1485, 4, #619 of 623 🔗

kh the woman in your shop today is like the a woman in a lifeboat telling other shipwreck survivors to swim. But if she were swimming you can bet she’d have a different attitude. You should have told her that giving her the virus (that then unfortunately kills her) to promote herd immunity was a ‘price worth paying to keep (other) people safe. ‘

12297 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to Nigel Baldwin, 1, #620 of 623 🔗

Thanks Nigel, I know, but trying to have any rational discussion with these people is nigh on impossible. I just get so frustrated that no-one (other than the odd isolated person and LS of course) seems to be getting angry about this.

12263 ▶▶ James007, replying to kh1485, 1, #621 of 623 🔗

A monument to the NHS?! I wonder if there are other countries in the world that worship their health service? What about those that regularly beat us in cancer survival rates? (eg Germany, and Australia)

“So even the preferred study of NHS cheerleaders confirms that in terms of outcomes, the NHS is one of the worst systems in the developed world.”

Very controversial.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nhs-overrated-system-private-healthcare-america-inefficient-developing-world-a7683541.html

12303 ▶▶▶ kh1485, replying to James007, #622 of 623 🔗

Thanks very much for the link. I know … it’s like a kick to the solar plexus every time I walk past it. Deifying something that is flawed in so many ways is hugely insulting.

12662 americansceptic, 1, #623 of 623 🔗

To the reader who submitted the charts displaying daily death peaks, and who wrote

“and also why the time gap from lockdown to peak deaths varies so much from country to country. That’s the same point – if lockdowns work, you’d expect a consistent gap between the lockdown being imposed and deaths declining in each country where they’ve been imposed. But you don’t.”

I undertook a project to correlate the dates of lockdown of each US State with the peak death date of each, in order to test this theory. I also created a bunch of other visualizations to correlate LENGTHS of lockdowns to other metrics from Johns Hopkins CSSE Repository. See below.

Anyone who is an actual statistician or professional please critique my work, I am merely a Computer Engineer with moderate data analysis and visualization skills.

https://github.com/ifihadastick/State-Lockdown-Correlations

https://app.powerbi.com/reportEmbed?reportId=ee741c56-afc6-4a95-b9ec-a24b5deb6c21&autoAuth=true&ctid=945c199a-83a2-4e80-9f8c-5a91be5752dd&config=eyJjbHVzdGVyVXJsIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly93YWJpLXVzLW5vcnRoLWNlbnRyYWwtYy1wcmltYXJ5LXJlZGlyZWN0LmFuYWx5c2lzLndpbmRvd3MubmV0LyJ9

Earliness of Lockdown Date vs Time Time Between Lockdown and Peak Deaths: weak(?) positive correlation (earlier is leftward, later is rightward). Does this suggest that the Date of Peak Deaths was defined by something OTHER than “lockdown” dates and that it had NOTHING to do with how quickly we acted? Is it possible that the EARLIER we “locked down” – the LONGER it took for Deaths to peak?

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105 users made 622 comments today.

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270Mark13, 5, 113, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1, 0, 2, 5, 2, 17, 12, 2, 3, 24, 2, 7, 0, 2, 0, 18, 13, 4, 3, 0, 8, 0, 0, 4, 27, 1, 13, 13, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4, 21, 5, 1, 2
142RDawg1, 7, 30, 23, 3, 3, 18, 28, 29
140CarrieAH22, 1, 16, 7, 13, 14, 12, 7, 4, 13, 11, 5, 5, 1, 9
138Farinances6, 1, 6, 0, 18, 1, 9, 3, 10, 7, 2, 8, 2, 16, 11, 7, 5, 4, 5, 8, 6, 3
128wendyk6, 7, 0, 0, 16, 1, 20, 1, 3, 8, 0, 11, 1, 1, 3, 26, 3, 4, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 3
126Bart Simpson1, 0, 1, 1, 12, 7, 0, 4, 0, 2, 7, 0, 8, 7, 9, 2, 12, 7, 0, 5, 6, 3, 8, 14, 5, 1, 4
112A1328, 1, 0, 8, 6, 14, 12, 11, 15, 11, 1, 5
109Biker37, 0, 8, 2, 0, 0, 25, 4, 1, 6, 4, 22
105Bella Donna1636, 6, 9, 2, 0, 3, 10, 4, 5, 11, 3
104Awkward Git4, 0, 0, 2, 0, 21, 1, 2, 13, 23, 38
98South Coast Worker37, 12, 0, 23, 5, 7, 10, 4, 0
91Barney McGrew313, 22, 8, 21, 8, 5, 2, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 5
85kh148516, 8, 10, 0, 1, 0, 2, 3, 25, 0, 0, 5, 1, 13, 1, 0
81swedenborg5, 18, 13, 1, 7, 4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 1, 5, 19, 7
80Nigel Baldwin5, 2, 16, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 2, 6, 14, 25, 4
74IanE21, 4, 3, 8, 9, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 13, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1
71Poppy56, 3, 2, 1, 1, 8
66Hammer Onats25, 10, 1, 8, 1, 14, 2, 5
62AidanR2, 5, 2, 11, 8, 1, 1, 0, 0, 8, 10, 3, 6, 5
59PFD8, 13, 7, 6, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6
52James0079, 1, 1, 3, 7, 16, 0, 10, 4, 1
49Paul6, 23, 11, 9
47guy1535, 13, -3, 0, 7, 1, 0, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 5, 9, 1
46AnotherSceptic30, 3, 13
46Adele Bull26, 12, 7, 1
45MiriamW-sometimes-AlanG423
41Nobody202013, 1, 0, 11, 8, 17, 0
40Sarigan0, 1, 37, 2, 0
39Sheltielass39
37Tyneside Tigress5, 19, 2, 4, 3, 0, 1, 3
36Carausius36
36paulito6, 15, 13, 0, 1, 1
35GetaGrip22, 13
35Mark H2, 33
35Jane in France14, 11, 1, 9
30Mike Smith819, 3, 0
30annie3, 18, 0, 7, 2, 0
30SweetBabyCheeses1, 1, 9, 1, 2, 3, 1, 12
29petgor16, 13
28Moomin14, 14
28TJN17, 11, 0
28ianp1, 3, 0, 5, 1, 4, 1, 0, 0, 7, -1, 3, 1, 2, 1
28A HUG IS HEALTH3, 5, 9, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1
27Louise27
27SRagdoll2, 25
27karate569, 16, 2
27Sally15, 5, 2, 5
25Schrodinger4, 21
25Margaret12, 4, 9
21Adrian147
21Saved To Death16, 5
20mantrid20
20AN other lockdown sceptic1010, 0
18Guirme2, 16
17bluefreddy12, 4, 1
16LockdownKillsBusinesses16
16Tom Blackburn16
16Fiat14, 2
16Tony Rattray11, 1, 4
16Snake Oil Pussy2, 2, 7, 0, 4, 1
15MoH15
15Riffman15, -2, 2
15Old fred63, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 3, 2
13BecJT13
13Alison8, 5
13JohnB1, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2
1240965, 7
10Gossamer10
10Hoppy Uniatz10
10Michel100
10Gillian01, 7, 2
9BobT9
8LockdownKillsBusinesses8
8spelldispel5, 0, 2, 1
7T. Prince0, 1, 0, 6
7Will Jones40, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1
6mhcp6
6Bob1, 2, 3, 0
6Carrie3, 2, 0, 1
5Clarence Beeks5
5James H5
5mark baker5
5Oaks794, 1
4Amtrup4
4BobUSA4
4Dave Tee4
4Ewan Duffy4
4Jonathan Smith1, 0, 3
3Dodgy Geezer3
3Victoria3, 0
3Annabel Andrew1, 0, 1, 1
2Christopher2
2DressageRider2
1americansceptic1
1Angela1
1JASA1
1Peter Thompson1
1Markus1, 0
1Tim Bidie0, 1
0Brommers0
0OpenCorona0
0Stephen McMurray0
0StevieH0
0Lms230, 0
-46Simon Nicholls (sinichol)-4, -8, -17, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, -9, 0, 0, -2, 0, -5, -1, 0, -1, 0, 0, -2, 1, 0, -2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0

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